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Post by casualinvestor on Dec 1, 2017 10:21:11 GMT -5
If MNKD partnered with One-Drop (ie, MNKD shares for % of One-Drop ownership), would that make it harder or easier for One-Drop to get approval to sell an Afrezza subscription?
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Post by slugworth008 on Dec 1, 2017 10:24:01 GMT -5
If MNKD partnered with One-Drop (ie, MNKD shares for % of One-Drop ownership), would that make it harder or easier for One-Drop to get approval to sell an Afrezza subscription? I'd rather see them partner with DEXCOM - JMHO
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Post by agedhippie on Dec 1, 2017 10:46:33 GMT -5
If MNKD partnered with One-Drop (ie, MNKD shares for % of One-Drop ownership), would that make it harder or easier for One-Drop to get approval to sell an Afrezza subscription? No change. The problem is not the subscription model, it's selling prescription drugs. I don't see One Drop getting into selling drugs for the same reason that Amazon is avoiding it. Far better to sell medical devices - they are largely shelf stable, don't require specialized shipping, are less regulated, and can be handled by your existing infrastructure (if you are Amazon).
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Post by madog365 on Dec 1, 2017 11:06:21 GMT -5
To be fair, they have already closed one international partnership for Brazil. I would hope MNKD doesn't have to entice a partner with shares to close a deal. They just need to pick regional partners that don't have competitive insulin offerings. I doubt having shares would have stopped SNY from dropping Afrezza, and dumping the shares into the market as well. DBC my comment addressed to you earlier this week below. It’s about a partner interested in BUY IN. In conclusion my FANTASY is that the vote passes and then Mike thanks all the shareholders for their support in authorizing the additional shares. The next week he make an early premarket announcement that MannKind has a new investor in the company who has bought 15% of the new shares at a price of $20.00 per share. Say that’s 42,000,000 shares X $20.00 = $840,000,000 Great liquidity and an international partner. What would happen to share price if that occurred? You would see the PPS surpasss that $20.00 figure. FANTASIES do happen just ask Mike Castagna about his hometown Eagles. They are flying high. Perhaps Mike is the air beneath the wings of MannKind. Looking back over they last 24 months many of us had the bleakest view of our investment in MannKind. Look how many steps forward Mike Castagna and the board have moved the football down the field. The authorization of shares is needed in order for a buy-in partnership to even be possible. Today there is simply not enough to shares for a good deal to get done. The reason i included the quote about the TASE delisting is because 10m preferred shares became available for issuing. Selling these shares and making them convertible into a larger quantity of common shares requires authorization of new common shares and would be the best case scenario for current shareholders. There is no immediate dilution in this scenario and the conversion to common shares happens only if certain milestones are met by the partner. For example filing and approval in specific countries, sales and marketing milestones, etc, or linked to PPS (assuming the deal is written this way). The partner then also has a stake in the success of Mannkind as a company as well as significant incentive to sell more Afrezza. Why would Kresa and an unnamed healthcare related company buy at 6, well to me it signifies that they believe they were getting a deal and those shares were worth more than what they paid for them.
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Post by peppy on Dec 1, 2017 11:20:31 GMT -5
If MNKD partnered with One-Drop (ie, MNKD shares for % of One-Drop ownership), would that make it harder or easier for One-Drop to get approval to sell an Afrezza subscription? In this case, would insurance cover the prescription? can you paint the picture for me?
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Post by casualinvestor on Dec 1, 2017 11:33:07 GMT -5
If MNKD partnered with One-Drop (ie, MNKD shares for % of One-Drop ownership), would that make it harder or easier for One-Drop to get approval to sell an Afrezza subscription? No change. The problem is not the subscription model, it's selling prescription drugs. I don't see One Drop getting into selling drugs for the same reason that Amazon is avoiding it. Far better to sell medical devices - they are largely shelf stable, don't require specialized shipping, are less regulated, and can be handled by your existing infrastructure (if you are Amazon). They're already paying for this trial: mnkd.proboards.com/thread/8925/drop-afrezza-clinical-trial400 participants. Seems like a lot of money/work if you're just going to include Afrezza as an option for treatment alongside other insulins
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Post by casualinvestor on Dec 1, 2017 12:08:14 GMT -5
If MNKD partnered with One-Drop (ie, MNKD shares for % of One-Drop ownership), would that make it harder or easier for One-Drop to get approval to sell an Afrezza subscription? In this case, would insurance cover the prescription? can you paint the picture for me?
(everything I know about One-Drop comes from their website and conjecture) One-Drop has a couple subscription models, Plus and Premium, that look to be made for people not being covered by insurance. They include 50/100/unlimited test strips per month, as well as unlimited coaching from experts. They have a free One-Drop Mobile app that looks to be for people who have insurance coverage, and just want to track stuff. There are many others like it, and I don't know which ones are actually used They also have One-Drop professional, which is for Docs/staff to check up on patient levels, send messages and "Stratify population and triage high-risk individuals". I assume they have to follow HIPAA security rules, but it sounds like a convenient way for a doctor or payer to review patients A new (and made up by me today) One-Drop A+ subscription model for $yyy.yy/month would include x units of Afrezza per month, unlimited coaching and probably unlimited strips. Several levels of cost and units/month. This would still require a doctor's prescription, which would have to be on file at One-Drop. I don't think One-Drop would try to make a lot of profit on reselling Afrezza? I think he's more interested in proving that his service will get a better HbA1C reduction than any other service, and growing his base. Having the cheapest source of Afrezza outside of insurance coverage would help with that I think. This would provide MNKD with an avenue to sell (almost) directly to consumers. The question is, are regulatory hurdles for delivering perscription drugs too difficult, even if the insurance companies are completely out of the picture?
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Post by dreamboatcruise on Dec 1, 2017 16:56:03 GMT -5
kc ... It is a great FANTASY. Not sure if you really want me to comment on whether I think that is possible. Best to hold one's fantasies close, and not solicit too much feedback. I think once you rope multiple people into it, it either destroys the fantasy or becomes more akin to a cultish group delusion rather than simply a fantasy. [offered in a lighthearted spirit] My less ambitious fantasy is that we get at least $6 a share for any newly issued shares. agree with that assessment. Somewhere in the $6 range with maybe a little premium possible, but not expected. 20% (used by Mike in his example on the last call) would be 56M shares after new shares authorized. At $6, that is $336M. Price would shoot past $6. Question is whether MC will make a play for a company like One Drop prior to partnering. Personally I don't think any marketing partner is going to involve some huge equity investment. By managements own information they are looking at a regional approach retaining control of US marketing themselves, already having signed one international partner and not yet looking at EU as a target region. I think we'd be lucky to get a small upfront payment of something like $10M or $30M rather than an investment of $336M... remember Brazil was no upfront. Personally I would not at all like an acquisition of One Drop. Not that One Drop isn't a useful tool but they are one of many in that space, and it appears MySugr is more popular and Google is now getting into that space with OnDuo and appears to have insurance coverage much stronger than One Drop. No reason for MNKD to go directly into competition with those companies. I hope $6 or above if they do a PIPE or secondary, though I certainly wouldn't guarantee it. I think the size of the authorization is an overhang that will make it easier for shorts to hold down the price. We'll still be in an uncomfortable situation with trying to wait as long as possible for scripts to rise and hopefully raise share price, but realizing that as cash dwindles the short position strengthens.
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Post by dreamboatcruise on Dec 1, 2017 17:00:38 GMT -5
DBC my comment addressed to you earlier this week below. It’s about a partner interested in BUY IN. In conclusion my FANTASY is that the vote passes and then Mike thanks all the shareholders for their support in authorizing the additional shares. The next week he make an early premarket announcement that MannKind has a new investor in the company who has bought 15% of the new shares at a price of $20.00 per share. Say that’s 42,000,000 shares X $20.00 = $840,000,000 Great liquidity and an international partner. What would happen to share price if that occurred? You would see the PPS surpasss that $20.00 figure. FANTASIES do happen just ask Mike Castagna about his hometown Eagles. They are flying high. Perhaps Mike is the air beneath the wings of MannKind. Looking back over they last 24 months many of us had the bleakest view of our investment in MannKind. Look how many steps forward Mike Castagna and the board have moved the football down the field. The authorization of shares is needed in order for a buy-in partnership to even be possible. Today there is simply not enough to shares for a good deal to get done. The reason i included the quote about the TASE delisting is because 10m preferred shares became available for issuing. Selling these shares and making them convertible into a larger quantity of common shares requires authorization of new common shares and would be the best case scenario for current shareholders. There is no immediate dilution in this scenario and the conversion to common shares happens only if certain milestones are met by the partner. For example filing and approval in specific countries, sales and marketing milestones, etc, or linked to PPS (assuming the deal is written this way). The partner then also has a stake in the success of Mannkind as a company as well as significant incentive to sell more Afrezza. Why would Kresa and an unnamed healthcare related company buy at 6, well to me it signifies that they believe they were getting a deal and those shares were worth more than what they paid for them. Authorization of shares does not have to be done ahead of time. A deal and authorization of shares can be put to vote anytime. If 10M preferred need convert to anywhere near 140m common I would not view that as a best case scenario for me as a current shareholder, but your mileage may vary as the saying goes. As for buying at $6, the healthcare related company could have been an investment company and yes on the day they agreed to buy at $6 indeed the shares were worth more. If they had shorted the same number of shares on that day and then covered the short with the shares they got from the PIPE they would have made a hefty and guaranteed profit because of the shares being worth more when the deal was struck. There is no reason to read anything in particular into the authorization of shares. Management has stated they can be used for anything and everything. That is all we know about it. The rest is wild conjecture.
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Post by dreamboatcruise on Dec 1, 2017 17:14:22 GMT -5
In this case, would insurance cover the prescription? can you paint the picture for me?
(everything I know about One-Drop comes from their website and conjecture) One-Drop has a couple subscription models, Plus and Premium, that look to be made for people not being covered by insurance. They include 50/100/unlimited test strips per month, as well as unlimited coaching from experts. They have a free One-Drop Mobile app that looks to be for people who have insurance coverage, and just want to track stuff. There are many others like it, and I don't know which ones are actually used They also have One-Drop professional, which is for Docs/staff to check up on patient levels, send messages and "Stratify population and triage high-risk individuals". I assume they have to follow HIPAA security rules, but it sounds like a convenient way for a doctor or payer to review patientsA new (and made up by me today) One-Drop A+ subscription model for $yyy.yy/month would include x units of Afrezza per month, unlimited coaching and probably unlimited strips. Several levels of cost and units/month. This would still require a doctor's prescription, which would have to be on file at One-Drop. I don't think One-Drop would try to make a lot of profit on reselling Afrezza? I think he's more interested in proving that his service will get a better HbA1C reduction than any other service, and growing his base. Having the cheapest source of Afrezza outside of insurance coverage would help with that I think. This would provide MNKD with an avenue to sell (almost) directly to consumers. The question is, are regulatory hurdles for delivering perscription drugs too difficult, even if the insurance companies are completely out of the picture? It appears OnDuo may already be ahead of One Drop in signing health insurers up... and they are brand new into the market. That's the google backed competitor to One Drop. Given that there is coaching involved in One Drop and OnDuo, perhaps One Drop can deliver a better service but they'll be in for a tough fight I would imagine.
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