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Post by akemp3000 on Jan 4, 2018 20:21:54 GMT -5
Agreed Sayhey. Apple, Google and other large corporations certainly don't have to explain to shareholders why they snatch up little known technology companies for ridiculous multiples of street value. Leaders of large corporations have to take calculated risks with emerging technologies. Those that don't are often at a greater risk.
To the original point...it was stated "there are not going to be any partners in the near future". Parsing words does not change that this is merely one individual's assumption, not a fact.
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Post by dreamboatcruise on Jan 4, 2018 21:42:50 GMT -5
Is this really the case? - "a partner however would have to explain to their shareholders why they made the deal and the only argument they can make is that it's a lowball offer" I don't thing so. If I remember correctly when Brandicourt dumped MNKD he was quoted as saying something like it would take till 2020 for afrezza to become a viable product. However 2017 turned out to be a banner year for the supporting technology to demonstrate afrezza's value and to push treating diabetes beyond A1c. Articles like this don't hurt and when the architect of the Onduo protocol Steve Edleman says when talking about staying in a tight range "Afrezza might help!" that pretty much makes the argument when the exclamation point is used.diatribe.org/cgm-and-time-range-what-do-diabetes-experts-think-about-goalsThough there is certainly no evidence that Onduo will be promoting use of Afrezza. It's nice that he personally believes in Afrezza, but even within the medical field business realities, such as Sanofi funding Onduo, are often the primary drivers. Hopefully Brandicourt's estimate of 2020 will prove a bit pessimistic. Improvement in insurance coverage is probably the main factor in what is viable from a large pharmas perspective. Perhaps by playing it lean and mean, MNKD can be viable with lessor coverage than would have made it viable for bloated Sanofi.
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Post by dreamboatcruise on Jan 4, 2018 22:11:30 GMT -5
Agreed Sayhey. Apple, Google and other large corporations certainly don't have to explain to shareholders why they snatch up little known technology companies for ridiculous multiples of street value. Leaders of large corporations have to take calculated risks with emerging technologies. Those that don't are often at a greater risk. To the original point...it was stated "there are not going to be any partners in the near future". Parsing words does not change that this is merely one individual's assumption, not a fact. Sure, small purchases of little known companies happen often behind the scenes. But MNKD will hopefully if ever acquired be at a valuation for enough money that even a fortune 100 company wouldn't slip it by shareholders (hopefully it's a billion dollars not fifty million)... not that Google or Apple would ever acquire a drug company. And Apple isn't known to be as profligate (Beats perhaps excepted) as your "ridiculous multiples of street value" might suggest. Shazam for instance was at valuation said to be less than what their prior round of financing had valued the company. Valuations get to crazy levels when there are competing bidders... and that makes it a lot easier to justify to shareholders.
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Post by Deleted on Jan 8, 2018 20:16:24 GMT -5
This has to be settled in one week. I hope to wake-up to news of a partnership with upfront $ prior to next Monday.
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Post by dreamboatcruise on Jan 8, 2018 21:10:06 GMT -5
This has to be settled in one week. I hope to wake-up to news of a partnership with upfront $ prior to next Monday. I think you're much more likely to wake up to news of another debt for equity swap at a discount. I wouldn't even think MNKD would want to be in the closing portion of a deal negotiation with the perception that they might be "needing" to get it done by a particular date. That's not a good negotiating position.
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Post by seanismorris on Jan 8, 2018 22:59:58 GMT -5
Deerfield will end up with more MNKD shares. I think the best we can hope for is them not being used Short...
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Post by dreamboatcruise on Jan 9, 2018 0:02:24 GMT -5
Deerfield will end up with more MNKD shares. I think the best we can hope for is them not being used Short... Best case would probably be another delay of payment date. If they do take share they'll likely dump them in the market. Probably not much to be read into that about MNKD specifically, that just appears to be MO. The reason they hold MNKD debt now rather than equity is that they want certainty of smaller return rather than potential/risk of larger return on equity... just their business model.
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Post by babaoriley on Jan 9, 2018 1:54:52 GMT -5
Deerfield will end up with more MNKD shares. I think the best we can hope for is them not being used Short... Best case would probably be another delay of payment date. If they do take share they'll likely dump them in the market. Probably not much to be read into that about MNKD specifically, that just appears to be MO. The reason they hold MNKD debt now rather than equity is that they want certainty of smaller return rather than potential/risk of larger return on equity... just their business model. Well, first, the stock has to get to at least $3.25, if it doesn't get there, they won't be exchanging the Note for stock, then, as has been said, best is to hope for an extension. If not, then they "capture" our ten million dollars!
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Post by dreamboatcruise on Jan 9, 2018 2:48:17 GMT -5
Best case would probably be another delay of payment date. If they do take share they'll likely dump them in the market. Probably not much to be read into that about MNKD specifically, that just appears to be MO. The reason they hold MNKD debt now rather than equity is that they want certainty of smaller return rather than potential/risk of larger return on equity... just their business model. Well, first, the stock has to get to at least $3.25, if it doesn't get there, they won't be exchanging the Note for stock, then, as has been said, best is to hope for an extension. If not, then they "capture" our ten million dollars! I wouldn't count out possibility that MNKD will offer to convert at a discount to wherever the price is then trading even if in low $2s range. Nothing prevents them from doing that. Think the chance of getting back over $3.25 seems very small... and it would need to go over $3.25 for it to make sense for Deerfield to convert under the existing formula since they are likely to only wish to do so if their averaging formula works out to give them a guaranteed profit.
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Post by traderdennis on Jan 9, 2018 15:29:49 GMT -5
Well, first, the stock has to get to at least $3.25, if it doesn't get there, they won't be exchanging the Note for stock, then, as has been said, best is to hope for an extension. If not, then they "capture" our ten million dollars! I wouldn't count out possibility that MNKD will offer to convert at a discount to wherever the price is then trading even if in low $2s range. Nothing prevents them from doing that. Think the chance of getting back over $3.25 seems very small... and it would need to go over $3.25 for it to make sense for Deerfield to convert under the existing formula since they are likely to only wish to do so if their averaging formula works out to give them a guaranteed profit. In my opinion Deerfield has already started to open a short position and will take a delivery of stock.
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Post by dreamboatcruise on Jan 9, 2018 17:04:08 GMT -5
I wouldn't count out possibility that MNKD will offer to convert at a discount to wherever the price is then trading even if in low $2s range. Nothing prevents them from doing that. Think the chance of getting back over $3.25 seems very small... and it would need to go over $3.25 for it to make sense for Deerfield to convert under the existing formula since they are likely to only wish to do so if their averaging formula works out to give them a guaranteed profit. In my opinion Deerfield has already started to open a short position and will take a delivery of stock. I don't think they'd start doing that without having already secured a deal to receive shares at a discount... but who knows, that could already be done. The price action doesn't seem to be indicating that level of shorting, however.
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Post by traderdennis on Jan 9, 2018 17:28:19 GMT -5
In my opinion Deerfield has already started to open a short position and will take a delivery of stock. I don't think they'd start doing that without having already secured a deal to receive shares at a discount... but who knows, that could already be done. The price action doesn't seem to be indicating that level of shorting, however. Only 13MM shares traded since Jan 2. I estimate Deerfield would need to short about 4.2 - 4.4 Million shares by the 15th. They cant just place a large market order for those and the price keeps swinging from 2.40 to about 2.70 over this period of time. Action looks good to short in chunks.
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Post by traderdennis on Jan 9, 2018 17:38:17 GMT -5
In my opinion Deerfield has already started to open a short position and will take a delivery of stock. I don't think they'd start doing that without having already secured a deal to receive shares at a discount... but who knows, that could already be done. The price action doesn't seem to be indicating that level of shorting, however. IMHO they over the course of the last year they likely have an informal agreement.
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Post by Deleted on Jan 9, 2018 18:48:56 GMT -5
dreamboatcruise "I wouldn't count out possibility that MNKD will offer to convert at a discount to wherever the price is then trading even if in low $2s range. Nothing prevents them from doing that." I am hoping MannKind has some kind of positive news before handing over approximately 5 million shares to settle the note. Either way we should be reading about it by Friday.
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Post by ilovekauai on Jan 9, 2018 19:47:36 GMT -5
Relax Crew. We got this. The tide turned awhile back on this one! Happy New Year!
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