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Post by barnstormer on Jan 30, 2018 8:47:17 GMT -5
Amphaster makes sense. Well grounded in China's regulatory process, good reputation, and native son status helps get pass the America First stigma.
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Post by traderdennis on Jan 30, 2018 8:52:53 GMT -5
Amphastar has first right of refusal for China. Amphastar makes sense but with the huge amount of debt that mnkd owes amphastar in the next few years there will be no money coming in just a renagotiation of debt Mnkd is on the hook for 115million in pre negotiated payments. Probably 35to 40 million shares issued for a partnership and pre paid insulin. While it is good to reduce debt off the books they still need to reach cash flow positive at some point so they can be an ongoing business on the next decade when most of the amphastar contract is due |
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Post by uvula on Jan 30, 2018 9:40:06 GMT -5
Amphastar has first right of refusal for China. Amphastar makes sense but with the huge amount of debt that mnkd owes amphastar in the next few years there will be no money coming in just a renagotiation of debt We are in a cappy situation. Less money going out is almost as good as money coming in. Also I think first right of refusal means they can match other offers if they want to but doesn't mean mnkd has to accept any offer they make. |
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Post by dreamboatcruise on Jan 30, 2018 11:38:16 GMT -5
Look at the updated map: It includes many European countries now that require substantial new trials. Guess who is going to sponsor those? CO-PROMOTION partner in place shortly! Curious. I hate to be skeptical... well, not really. I wonder how much of this map business is stage craft. So now, since Cantor presentation, they've added Europe, Turkey, Southeast Asia, New Zealand and North Africa as "focus". Is that progress? Were there actual accomplishments on the map they were focusing on earlier? If the more narrow focus didn't result in concrete accomplishment, is broadening the focus the best course of action? What does it even mean to focus on certain countries... would they turn down any credible offer? Maybe they said something in the presentation to give meaning/weight to the map exercise, beyond just demonstrating an ability to color within the lines (pardon the sarcasm). Did they at least recommit to being filed in regions covering greater than 50% of world's population by end of year? I suppose I should look at these presentations in a different light, that they ostensibly are meant to introduce new investors to MNKD, not necessarily crafted as updates to current investors... but lacking in other updates, we investors tend to treat them as such. It is all too easy to project something into nuances such as additional shaded countries on the map... and quite frankly I have no idea whether that is management conveying real info, engaging in smoke and mirrors or something in between. |
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Post by dg1111 on Jan 30, 2018 11:56:56 GMT -5
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Post by dreamboatcruise on Jan 30, 2018 12:34:24 GMT -5
I give Mike high marks for the tone and professionalism of the presentation.
Would still have liked much more detail... but wasn't really expecting it.
One thing that was made explicit is that they are planning to have direct sales force focus on endos and plan to partner with someone that has large underutilized sales force calling on PCP. Reading between the lines on one of Mike's statements it seems they might be waiting on getting updated titration instructions worked out before putting in place a PCP oriented partnership. Leaves one to wonder if that is possible short of another lengthy label update.
With regard to international, he did indicate several countries where they plan to file on their own rather than partnering (including EU and Canada, I believe). This statement would seem a clear indication that at least as of now there is no serious consideration of one of the big pharmas becoming a partner. This seems consistent with prior talk of regional partners.
Looking forward to hearing others' thoughts after they watch the presentation.
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Post by Deleted on Jan 30, 2018 13:29:46 GMT -5
I give Mike high marks for the tone and professionalism of the presentation. Would still have liked much more detail... but wasn't really expecting it. One thing that was made explicit is that they are planning to have direct sales force focus on endos and plan to partner with someone that has large underutilized sales force calling on PCP. Reading between the lines on one of Mike's statements it seems they might be waiting on getting updated titration instructions worked out before putting in place a PCP oriented partnership. Leaves one to wonder if that is possible short of another lengthy label update. With regard to international, he did indicate several countries where they plan to file on their own rather than partnering (including EU and Canada, I believe). This statement would seem a clear indication that at least as of now there is no serious consideration of one of the big pharmas becoming a partner. This seems consistent with prior talk of regional partners. Looking forward to hearing others' thoughts after they watch the presentation. Good tone / presentation. A bit of gun slinging but nothing that causes me concern. In the end, Afrezza sales in the US need to accelerate. Per Mike's comments, they always drop off a bit in Jan so we should see an uptick in the next couple of reporting periods. Also package configuration sounds like it has been a bit detrimental to the optics of the refill rate. As I said before, based on current information, Afrezza has not proven itself to be commercially viable in the US. Hopefully that changes via accelerated sales growth during H1 '18. |
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Post by dreamboatcruise on Jan 30, 2018 14:03:30 GMT -5
It still seems like the exhibited confidence about financing has no meat behind it. On the one hand he basically was saying "nothing to worry about" but then he also stated that having debt due every quarter was something that worried him (or something to that effect).
Seems it's been hinted that they don't view deals on pipeline API are worth doing without at least Phase 1 trials. International deals likely would seem to be regional and probably no significant upfront payments at this point. No hint of any partnership in US that would involve investment. Seems they will be at the mercy of share offerings and debt to equity conversions for the feasible future. While they may be able to pull that off without ruinous dilution, being in that position isn't to me a risk free position.
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Post by lennymnkd on Jan 30, 2018 14:33:17 GMT -5
What was mikes very last sentence , could not hear the question / that’s up to big something ?
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Post by sportsrancho on Jan 30, 2018 14:33:38 GMT -5
Didn’t he say no plans for dilution, and we aren’t going bankrupt. I believe he was referring to certain people in certain articles:-)
And the pediatric trials are moved forward! Yes:-))
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Post by Deleted on Jan 30, 2018 14:40:04 GMT -5
Didn’t he say no plans for dilution, and we aren’t going bankrupt. I believe he was referring to certain people in certain articles:-) And the pediatric trials are moved forward! Yes:-)) Sports, thoughts on non-dilutive financing? What was cash balance on 12-31-17? Burn rate is how much / mo? |
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Post by tingtongtung on Jan 30, 2018 14:54:10 GMT -5
It still seems like the exhibited confidence about financing has no meat behind it. On the one hand he basically was saying "nothing to worry about" but then he also stated that having debt due every quarter was something that worried him (or something to that effect). Seems it's been hinted that they don't view deals on pipeline API are worth doing without at least Phase 1 trials. International deals likely would seem to be regional and probably no significant upfront payments at this point. No hint of any partnership in US that would involve investment. Seems they will be at the mercy of share offerings and debt to equity conversions for the feasible future. While they may be able to pull that off without ruinous dilution, being in that position isn't to me a risk free position. I haven't listened to the presentation.. But the slide on the debt due is different from the Kastenes thread (MNKD commitments)? mnkd.proboards.com/thread/9456/commitments?page=2#ixzz55hNCQ8yo
Here is a breakdown of MannKind's commitments through 2023:
2018 $30,800,000
2019 $45,450,000
2020 $19,000,000
2021 $122,356,000
2022 $23,700,000
2023 $23,700,000
From the slide, 2018 ~ 20million 2019 ~ 30million 2020 ~ 80million 2020 Q1 is the biggest one, but with Mann group, and I hope they would work with the company. Looks like I'm missing something? That apart.. Mike is definitely doing an awesome job with what he has. But, the biggest thing is the deal with PBM (whatever it is). All others are almost too inconsequential in the near future (1-2 years). That and whatever increase they can get in the scripts. * Any partnership for TreT will not bring in enough money. (1-2 years) * RLS is still a long way to go. (1-2 years) * Pediatric thing is still going on. (1-2 years??) * Brazil is more than a year away. US took/taking so many years to bring in any revenue. Can't expect Brazil to start buying in millions from day 1. * India, China (low hanging fruit IMHO) are still in planning(?). I want MNKD to succeed - dont get me wrong. But, growing scripts in US is the only thing that can save us. Looks like very closely working with Vdex may be a very good idea. Of course, IMHO. |
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Post by dreamboatcruise on Jan 30, 2018 15:20:21 GMT -5
Didn’t he say no plans for dilution, and we aren’t going bankrupt. I believe he was referring to certain people in certain articles:-) And the pediatric trials are moved forward! Yes:-)) I went back to that section on finance. Here are things I heard. He talks about cutting expenses saying "we can slow down hiring, we can slow down marketing... so we have a little bit of control over our own destiny". Immediately followed by "There's a Motley Fool article saying the company is going to go bankrupt and dilute everybody... that's just no where in our plans, so we can put the rumors to rest, and rest assured we've got a plan for success not failure." The last part is kinda a silly fluff statement. No company plans to fail. As for the dilution it appears all he is saying if one looks at the actual sentence as delivered is that dilution through bankruptcy is not in the current plan. It would be going beyond the sentence to assume no future dilution. It would seem dilution for debt conversion and working capital is very likely, both from what can be seen that they are doing and from the share authorization. And he also gave us another notable MNKD quote... he looks at the outstanding debt not as overhangs but as possibilities... that quote I'd certainly rank as having eye roll possibility. Sorry... half joking, but only half... think it's pushing it a bit to go beyond "I can handle this" to "I'm tickled pink by having such a damaged balance sheet". |
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Post by dreamboatcruise on Jan 30, 2018 15:23:04 GMT -5
It still seems like the exhibited confidence about financing has no meat behind it. On the one hand he basically was saying "nothing to worry about" but then he also stated that having debt due every quarter was something that worried him (or something to that effect). Seems it's been hinted that they don't view deals on pipeline API are worth doing without at least Phase 1 trials. International deals likely would seem to be regional and probably no significant upfront payments at this point. No hint of any partnership in US that would involve investment. Seems they will be at the mercy of share offerings and debt to equity conversions for the feasible future. While they may be able to pull that off without ruinous dilution, being in that position isn't to me a risk free position. I haven't listened to the presentation.. But the slide on the debt due is different from the Kastenes thread (MNKD commitments)? mnkd.proboards.com/thread/9456/commitments?page=2#ixzz55hNCQ8yo
Here is a breakdown of MannKind's commitments through 2023:
2018 $30,800,000
2019 $45,450,000
2020 $19,000,000
2021 $122,356,000
2022 $23,700,000
2023 $23,700,000
From the slide, 2018 ~ 20million 2019 ~ 30million 2020 ~ 80million 2020 Q1 is the biggest one, but with Mann group, and I hope they would work with the company. Looks like I'm missing something? That apart.. Mike is definitely doing an awesome job with what he has. But, the biggest thing is the deal with PBM (whatever it is). All others are almost too inconsequential in the near future (1-2 years). That and whatever increase they can get in the scripts. * Any partnership for TreT will not bring in enough money. (1-2 years) * RLS is still a long way to go. (1-2 years) * Pediatric thing is still going on. (1-2 years??) * Brazil is more than a year away. US took/taking so many years to bring in any revenue. Can't expect Brazil to start buying in millions from day 1. * India, China (low hanging fruit IMHO) are still in planning(?). I want MNKD to succeed - dont get me wrong. But, growing scripts in US is the only thing that can save us. Looks like very closely working with Vdex may be a very good idea. Of course, IMHO. I believe he included insulin purchase obligations, which are not on Mike's "debt" slide. I wouldn't consider that deceptive as it clearly says debt at the top, but certainly investors need to consider the entire picture including contractual purchase obligations. Though I can't vouch for the accuracy of the numbers posted here. |
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Post by sportsrancho on Jan 30, 2018 15:30:38 GMT -5
Good points, But he knows what kind of dilution they’re talking about in the articles and he knows what we mean when we say it. But yes, sounds like it’s going to be used for the debt and the dept didn’t seem anywhere near what’s been posted on this board.
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