|
Post by matt on Jan 29, 2018 7:27:35 GMT -5
Somehow, some way, MNKD got themselves in so much debt that the other BP know this, saturate the message boards and on line media, chats, etc w negativity until they can buy MNKD for pennies on the $100 of true value while at the same time paying the endos not to prescribe Afrezza w their kickbacks on their current meal time insulin. True? It is not quite as draconian as that. Knowing the financial position of your competitors is easy if they are a public company; all the information is there in the 10-K for anybody with a passing familiarity with accounting to decipher. The balance sheet is the result of a series of assumptions, dating back to the early days of Al Mann, that did not materialize as planned. Big Pharma does not stalk and manipulate prices of weak competitors regardless of what the rumor mill might say. If a pharma wants to own a small company, they simply write a check big enough to get the deal done because the slow demise of a target company is accompanied by the slow demise of the remaining patent life on the target product, and that is in nobody's interest. The two things that are killing Afrezza in the market are these: 1. Lack of proven superiority and a black box warning. Some patients may swear by the product, others are not so excited, but ultimately there has been no large well-controlled, randomized clinical trial that shows that Afrezza provides improved long-term outcomes compared with the other alternatives. Physicians increasingly practice evidence-based medicine, and the evidence is lacking. 2. Current insulin offerings are substantially cheaper. Combined with the lack of data showing the Afrezza is demonstrably better at controlling diabetes long-term, managed care is not going to pay the significant premium for Afrezza, especially while Lilly and Novo create financial incentives for the large PBMs to standardize on their products. Absent data that shows Afrezza to be a superior long-term therapy for IDDM, the competitors are going to remain on the preferred tiers while Afrezza is relegated to lower tiers of the formulary or excluded completely. Neither of those factors requires some shadowy conspiracy cooked up by Big Pharma in a back room; it is simple bare knuckle brawling in a competitive market place where Lilly and Novo are punching harder because they can. If Mannkind had the data they needed, the roles might be reversed and some of those early assumptions that led to the current balance sheet might have materialized somewhat differently.
|
|
Deleted
Deleted Member
Posts: 0
|
Post by Deleted on Jan 29, 2018 7:53:59 GMT -5
If we want a partner with decent up front money, or we want to raise $$ via selling some shares, to do so effectively requires one thing, sell more Afrezza in the United States. 3-4 weeks of strong steady upward growth alone would help SP and improve the company's negotiating position although 3-4 months of the same would be better. It comes down to one thing and its the same thing as it has always been, sales and we need a lot more.
|
|
|
Post by akemp3000 on Jan 29, 2018 7:58:56 GMT -5
Fortunately, diabetics using Afrezza already know and talk about proven superiority. While it's increasing slowly, more are needed. This should change in 2018 with the increasing use of CGMs and the upcoming release of the STAT study at the ADA.
|
|
Deleted
Deleted Member
Posts: 0
|
Post by Deleted on Jan 29, 2018 8:08:13 GMT -5
Fortunately, diabetics using Afrezza already know and talk about proven superiority. While it's increasing slowly, more are needed. This should change in 2018 with the increasing use of CGMs and the upcoming release of the STAT study at the ADA. Then why the Xuck haven't Mannkind sales people used this to sell more product & why have their managed care sales people not been able to move the needle faster? They have enough time to cash their paychecks but not enough time to sell product? Interesting. Someone needs to start cracking the whip. This is all moving much too slow.
|
|
|
Post by liane on Jan 29, 2018 9:19:20 GMT -5
Their hands are tied by what's in the current label.
|
|
|
Post by traderdennis on Jan 29, 2018 9:28:57 GMT -5
If we want a partner with decent up front money, or we want to raise $$ via selling some shares, to do so effectively requires one thing, sell more Afrezza in the United States. 3-4 weeks of strong steady upward growth alone would help SP and improve the company's negotiating position although 3-4 months of the same would be better. It comes down to one thing and its the same thing as it has always been, sales and we need a lot more. Unless mnkd is near cash flow break even which is thousands of scripts a week away the stock price will not improve with a few weeks of positive trajectory in sales
|
|
|
Post by sportsrancho on Jan 29, 2018 9:36:11 GMT -5
In my opinion the stock will go up way before we’re close to breakeven! By the way this is the short thread. If you need or want proof of that just go check Spencer’s comment section.
|
|
Deleted
Deleted Member
Posts: 0
|
Post by Deleted on Jan 29, 2018 9:40:15 GMT -5
In my opinion the stock will go up way before we’re close to breakeven! By the way this is the short thread. If you need or want proof of that just go check Spencer’s comment section. 4 straight weeks of 7% W/W top line growth would start to impact SP. Would it get us to the promise land, of course not but to see steady and accelerating growth would increase both rate of respiration and pulse of the shorts. Under the right circumstances, they would kill one another to get out the door. So far, not enough sales to accomplish this and nothing to indicate this will change based on current data extrapolated.
|
|
|
Post by akemp3000 on Jan 29, 2018 9:49:21 GMT -5
No expectations of a forthcoming jump in scripts requires the assumption that the label change, recent DTC TV ads, One Drop suggesting its customers consider trying Afrezza and other events will have little to no effect on sales in the coming weeks. We'll know soon.
|
|
|
Post by traderdennis on Jan 29, 2018 11:51:31 GMT -5
In my opinion the stock will go up way before we’re close to breakeven! By the way this is the short thread. If you need or want proof of that just go check Spencer’s comment section. 4 straight weeks of 7% W/W top line growth would start to impact SP. Would it get us to the promise land, of course not but to see steady and accelerating growth would increase both rate of respiration and pulse of the shorts. Under the right circumstances, they would kill one another to get out the door. So far, not enough sales to accomplish this and nothing to indicate this will change based on current data extrapolated. 7% W/W growth does not even get mnkd to 500 total scripts. That would not be enough
|
|
Deleted
Deleted Member
Posts: 0
|
Post by Deleted on Jan 29, 2018 12:57:15 GMT -5
4 straight weeks of 7% W/W top line growth would start to impact SP. Would it get us to the promise land, of course not but to see steady and accelerating growth would increase both rate of respiration and pulse of the shorts. Under the right circumstances, they would kill one another to get out the door. So far, not enough sales to accomplish this and nothing to indicate this will change based on current data extrapolated. 7% W/W growth does not even get mnkd to 500 total scripts. That would not be enough My comments were based on 7% W/W top line growth, not Rx count. Most recent report I believe was $453k. @ 7% top line growth, weekly sales would be in: 4 wks: $493K 10 wks: $891k 12 wks: $1.020mm 28 wks: $3mm
|
|
|
Post by mytakeonit on Jan 29, 2018 13:48:32 GMT -5
Last week we tested the emergency alert system ... now we can fix all the loop holes and kinks to shut the leaks.
This week we must eliminate all sell orders with long expiration dates. If you want to day trade ... as the name indicates ... put in a day sell order. BUY all the outstanding shares you want ... AND know that you will soon be rewarded.
If you do the above, this board will be boring without all these short comments. BUT heck ... we'll all be rich and can fly to Vegas any time!
|
|
|
Post by traderdennis on Jan 29, 2018 14:29:21 GMT -5
7% W/W growth does not even get mnkd to 500 total scripts. That would not be enough My comments were based on 7% W/W top line growth, not Rx count. Most recent report I believe was $453k. @ 7% top line growth, weekly sales would be in: 4 wks: $493K 10 wks: $891k 12 wks: $1.020mm 28 wks: $3mm How would you explain MNKD can get 7% W/W top line growth for 7 months ? Just another pumper on the board
|
|
|
Post by cretin11 on Jan 29, 2018 15:57:42 GMT -5
7% W/W growth does not even get mnkd to 500 total scripts. That would not be enough My comments were based on 7% W/W top line growth, not Rx count. Most recent report I believe was $453k. @ 7% top line growth, weekly sales would be in: 4 wks: $493K 10 wks: $891k 12 wks: $1.020mm 28 wks: $3mm I don't get the point of the math above (other than to mislead people?), it has no connection to reality.
|
|
|
Post by mnkdfann on Jan 30, 2018 18:54:16 GMT -5
Here is a breakdown of MannKind's commitments through 2023: 2018 $30,800,000 2019 $45,450,000 2020 $19,000,000 2021 $122,356,000 2022 $23,700,000 2023 $23,700,000 I'm assuming you obtained those numbers from one of Spencer's recent articles, in which case you should know that he issued a correction. He wrote in a recent comment: "I corrected the cash commitment and debt chart in the article. I mistakenly attributed the $80 million due to Mann Group in 2021. The recent presentation by MannKind showed that debt due in 2020. The bottom line total remains the same, but the annual load shifted. My apologies for the error." The corrected numbers are below, along with a link to the article. seekingalpha.com/article/4140649-mannkind-stock-rises-afrezza-sales-remain-modest
|
|