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Post by BD on Jun 28, 2014 8:14:03 GMT -5
Correctamente... Never, never EVER set stops on biotechs. I have seen stuff a whole lot wackier than what went down (and back up) with MNKD Friday. The very first biotech I ever invested in was POZN, and I watched it do a flash crash in front of my eyes one day on no news whatsoever. This is just par for the course.
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Post by liane on Jun 28, 2014 8:32:52 GMT -5
Biotechs are ripe for huge short interest simply because there are so many hurdles to overcome. The odds are something like 90% in favor of the shorts. They short everything; the one they miss is just the cost of doing business. That said, they do not give up without a fight. Thus the games and flash crashes. They know where the stops are set, or can reasonably guess. Yesterday went down precisely to the 50 day moving average. Their buys are lined up in advance; it then just takes some chaos or uncertainty to start the cascade. Notice how quickly it recovered. The last couple days, I was attempting to raise cash to better take advantage of a bear raid that I knew would come. Unfortunately, the good news came too soon. I can live with that. In fact, I am probably in exactly the same place than if I had repositioned. Thus I saved a bunch of transaction costs.
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Post by 4allthemarbles on Jun 28, 2014 10:43:47 GMT -5
I don't mess around with the stop loss orders anymore- flash drops have hurt in the past. I remember the day MNkD went under $2 and I had stop loss in. That hurt. Thank you for those cheap shares! JPG PS: a few investors I know just found out they no longer have Mannkind shares (sold below 9) and are seeing approval and an end of trading price of 10$.. Hopefully they don't look at after hours... Stop losses are a perfect way to capture downside while avoiding any upside. They should never be used in biotech. Lol, it was a learning experience. I ended up buying them right back, but my cost basis went up about 10 cents on the total order. It wasn't so much the cost (although for 30 mins it felt like a shot to the gut) as the realization that I made a rookie mistake (pride hurt a little bit). This was 2 or 3 years ago. The value came back an it worked out fine, but it wasn't free. I took my lumps, added to my position and my knowledge.
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Post by ralphm1999 on Jun 28, 2014 11:07:04 GMT -5
Earlier Friday I had put in a buy at $10. Then when it was going up as if it would never look back I stopped watching and just figured my buy would expire. What a surprise... when I checked after hours and found myself with a nice addition at $10.
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Post by mannmade on Jun 28, 2014 11:14:23 GMT -5
Without any hard evidence to support my thesis I believe the sell-off was orchestrated by the "shorts"
I believe that someone must have dumped a million shares (plus or minus) to start an abrupt sell off that triggered all the stop losses set so people who felt there may have been a 3rd cry or too restrictive label coming thought that were protected on the downside... Then these "magical elves" many of whom I believe have short positions dating back to 6 and 7pps or lower sold at low 8's (actually a bottom of $8.20) up to low 9's and bought back with calls or whatever in the low to mid 9's and then helped to drive price up to 11 thus covering most of their losses from their original short positions and still picking up a profit on the way back up...
Having said this I do believe that the stop losses are now cleaned out for the moment and as everyone has time to digest the news on label guidelines they will come to see that it is really not bad and in fact very much in our favor. Even with some of the short arguments I have already started to hear about deleting "ultra rapid acting," requiring extended rems studies for cancer and chronic lungs issues, etc... One fact cannot be overstated... THE FDA has formally asked that Mannkind also begin testing on young children. They would never (IMHO) ask for this if they thought that their was a real risk for cancer and long term permanent lung/pulmonary degradation... This for me is one of the key signals about the future and the real position of what the label means... So yes we may still have a bit of a battle with the shorts of the world but the single biggest risk to Mannkind's/Afrezza's future has been removed.
Even if for some reason we do not get a partnership (and I am fully expecting a global partner with decent if not great deal points for Mannkind) we now know it is only a matter of time until we go to market and the world of diabetics and medical professionals will finally be able to find out for themselves what the real value of Afrezza is and then I believe the best part of this journey will finally begin...
But yesterday was one of those days where I will forever remember where I was and what I was doing when I got news of the approval of Afrezza as it was a great day for all of Mannkind...
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Post by obamayoumama on Jun 28, 2014 22:08:29 GMT -5
I was on our Bloomberg Machine watching MNKD. I have two screens, one was on MNKD equity MDM, showing the Level II information. There had been a large order on the Offer and it was slowing being chipped away. All of a sudden a huge amount of buy orders went off. The other screen I was watching the MNKD equity GIP screen showing MNKD 's daily chart. I Changed the MNKD equity GIP screen to MNKD equity CN screen or the news on MNKD. There was NO NEWS ON THE BLOMBERG YET. The stock went as high as 11.11 and that is when I was the first news hitting the Bloomberg. It was a line line item saying MNKD got approval on AFREZZA. No news on the label, or any other details. About that same time the stock started to drop. I believe now someone or a group of shorts threw out a market sell order in the magnitude of a million shares. I went to my office and Reuters stil hadn't reported anything. This was several minutes after the original news hit. I saw the stock recover after the million shares or so completed. This order took out many stops and caused several million shares to trade. The stock started to recover going back over ten to be hit again with what I believe was another milion naked short sale taking it down to 8.20. After recovering some the circuit breakers went off for five minutes. The continued to recover but closed at 10. CNBC picked up along with the news agencies that MNKD got approval, but is down sharply, their answer was it must be the label. No way anyone had the time to read the label, when those sell order went in. I believe that everyone including MNKD was caught off guard on the timing of the news release. I believe those orders were put in to create doubt and to protect the short position. If those orders hadn't gone in think of the difference the news would have been. MNKD's AFREZZA approved and the stock up sharply. The shorts are good, and aren't going down without a fight. That is what I believe happened on Friday.
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Post by cusop on Jun 28, 2014 23:25:38 GMT -5
Without any hard evidence to support my thesis I believe the sell-off was orchestrated by the "shorts"
I believe that someone must have dumped a million shares (plus or minus) to start an abrupt sell off that triggered all the stop losses set so people who felt there may have been a 3rd cry or too restrictive label coming thought that were protected on the downside... Then these "magical elves" many of whom I believe have short positions dating back to 6 and 7pps or lower sold at low 8's (actually a bottom of $8.20) up to low 9's and bought back with calls or whatever in the low to mid 9's and then helped to drive price up to 11 thus covering most of their losses from their original short positions and still picking up a profit on the way back up...
Having said this I do believe that the stop losses are now cleaned out for the moment and as everyone has time to digest the news on label guidelines they will come to see that it is really not bad and in fact very much in our favor. Even with some of the short arguments I have already started to hear about deleting "ultra rapid acting," requiring extended rems studies for cancer and chronic lungs issues, etc... One fact cannot be overstated... THE FDA has formally asked that Mannkind also begin testing on young children. They would never (IMHO) ask for this if they thought that their was a real risk for cancer and long term permanent lung/pulmonary degradation... This for me is one of the key signals about the future and the real position of what the label means... So yes we may still have a bit of a battle with the shorts of the world but the single biggest risk to Mannkind's/Afrezza's future has been removed.
Even if for some reason we do not get a partnership (and I am fully expecting a global partner with decent if not great deal points for Mannkind) we now know it is only a matter of time until we go to market and the world of diabetics and medical professionals will finally be able to find out for themselves what the real value of Afrezza is and then I believe the best part of this journey will finally begin...
But yesterday was one of those days where I will forever remember where I was and what I was doing when I got news of the approval of Afrezza as it was a great day for all of Mannkind... Totally on the money, preplanned and executed as soon as the news broke.
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Post by BD on Jun 29, 2014 0:33:54 GMT -5
Yes yes yes. No better explanation, really, and this is SO the reason not to set stops in biotech stocks...and to really believe in the efficacy of a long-term mentality. As that great Peter Lynch quote goes, "The way to make money in stocks is to not get scared out of them."
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Post by liane on Jun 29, 2014 4:38:52 GMT -5
obamayoumama,
Thanks for the input. Wish all of us had access to such immediate info, but I've watched enough of these to distinguish the "short" footprints even without 1st hand knowledge. Their MO is to make a big dump, cause FUD, crash the price, scoop up cheap shares and cover. They also do not have the complete story (no one can digest all the details in seconds). But they do have algos that can pull out key words in any given document. They also have the knowledge that they are intentionally causing the crash. They know that retail is positioned for a squeeze and has stops in place. To them, it's taking candy from a baby.
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Post by babaoriley on Jun 29, 2014 8:49:10 GMT -5
Pro shorts. Always finding a way out. Disgusting.
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Post by papihoyos on Jun 29, 2014 8:54:57 GMT -5
Same here. I had completely forgotten that I had place a GTC order at $8.75 several weeks ago. I received Saturday morning confirmation email from my Etrade account which I rarely go to (use TDA mostly) and saw that my orders were filled. Yippee!!!
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dave
Newbie
Posts: 10
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Post by dave on Jun 29, 2014 10:25:36 GMT -5
Exactly the reason the SEC should have an uptick rule....it would certainly curtail this unfair, shady trading........I ask, how is it at all ethical...not that it matters to our political leadership. (I say that with a big grain of salt)
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