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Post by derek2 on Apr 11, 2018 14:14:41 GMT -5
Ask around, Peppy! But don't ask mytakeonit! LOL You two can start an anti-baba club, and I'm sure you'll get some more members quickly enough! Peppy, you do a heck of a lot of work for everyone on this board, but you're generally as wrong as everyone else, including me! Actually, the ones that are most correct around here are the shorts (whether admitted or not), and they have been on the correct side for YEARS. It's cost me a lot of money, and it's money that is going to effect my retirement (well, at least until some of my other "sure things" hit), but I see humor in greed that goes wrong - I guess that's a character flaw, so be it. I just want to see that happen to the shorts in the final analysis, they are more greedy than longs by nature. Someone on this board needs to not take everything related to MNKD so seriously - that would be I! I don't know who you think you are, but I am not generally, or EVER, wrong, and you can verify that with my wife! Ha!  PS - and it is "affect" and not "effect" your retirement (I believe effect would be like taking a dump, or is that eject?). If the SP went through the roof, it would most certainly effect my retirement, as in initiating it! ef·fect əˈfekt/Submit verb 1. cause (something) to happen; bring about. |
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Post by bill on Apr 11, 2018 15:02:47 GMT -5
Looks like the shorts have calculated that MNKD will not get a substantial enough boost from script increases, the STAT study, and any partnerships to avoid more dilution. Therefore, they feel very safe in driving the share price even lower to increase the number of shares that will have to be issued in the next round of dilution so they can easily borrow more shares to short.
This is a pattern we've seen played out many times over the years. MNKD management employs a minimum dilution strategy based on a series of assumptions that turn out to be optimistic when the share price drops more than expected and other positives take longer than expected or have less of an impact than they anticipated.
The question here is whether Mike C has fallen into the same trap / pattern with the latest round of dilution. Will he actually see enough of an increase in script revenue, the STAT study, and partnerships to cause an increase in share price, or will the shorts be successful in holding down the share price to where even more shares need to be issued at a future date at an even lower price?
What may be interesting is to ponder the following:
1. The STAT study isn't going to magically increase scripts overnight; we know that any change will likely take months to effect scripts
2. Partnerships aren't likely to include more than a month of two of operating cash
Therefore, how does MNKD avoid another round of dramatically larger dilution post-June as the shorts successfully drive the share price down to half of what we had this time around?
Thoughts?
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Post by celo on Apr 11, 2018 15:29:28 GMT -5
Looks like the shorts have calculated that MNKD will not get a substantial enough boost from script increases, the STAT study, and any partnerships to avoid more dilution. Therefore, they feel very safe in driving the share price even lower to increase the number of shares that will have to be issued in the next round of dilution so they can easily borrow more shares to short. This is a pattern we've seen played out many times over the years. MNKD management employs a minimum dilution strategy based on a series of assumptions that turn out to be optimistic when the share price drops more than expected and other positives take longer than expected or have less of an impact than they anticipated. The question here is whether Mike C has fallen into the same trap / pattern with the latest round of dilution. Will he actually see enough of an increase in script revenue, the STAT study, and partnerships to cause an increase in share price, or will the shorts be successful in holding down the share price to where even more shares need to be issued at a future date at an even lower price? What may be interesting is to ponder the following: 1. The STAT study isn't going to magically increase scripts overnight; we know that any change will likely take months to effect scripts 2. Partnerships aren't likely to include more than a month of two of operating cash Therefore, how does MNKD avoid another round of dramatically larger dilution post-June as the shorts successfully drive the share price down to half of what we had this time around? Thoughts? Yes the biggest issue is if the warrants can not be used to raise money because the share price never makes it back to 2.35, then where will the money come from? Shares will have to be sold at a really big discount. They really need to show an improvement of sales or the share price will reflect that and continue to go down. Mannkind seems to know that also. Mannkind needs a partner, sell out or increase sales, soon. Using Sappy is not a sign of strength. |
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Post by peppy on Apr 11, 2018 15:31:31 GMT -5
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Post by buyitonsale on Apr 11, 2018 15:36:51 GMT -5
Shorts do what they do because the management has not filly explained how they are planning to "complete re-capitalization"...
What has been thoroughly explained and signalled to everyone is that the money is an issue...
But, I keep adding shares with belief that management does have a plan to provide cash needed to break even.
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Post by celo on Apr 11, 2018 16:09:41 GMT -5
To issue shares before a potential flood of good news...(STAT study, signing international deals, increasing sales...). It does not give any one confidence, even though it is framed in the potential future destabilizing financial markets.
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Post by awesomo on Apr 11, 2018 16:15:21 GMT -5
Unfortunately, this round of dilution (unlike the previous miraculous raise at $6) has really brought to the forefront of the cash situation. As long as the threat of dilution at any PPS looms, shorts will pile on knowing they have an out regardless of how much good news comes out barring some massive influx of revenue or upfront payment in a deal.
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Post by dreamboatcruise on Apr 11, 2018 16:25:36 GMT -5
Looks like the shorts have calculated that MNKD will not get a substantial enough boost from script increases, the STAT study, and any partnerships to avoid more dilution. Therefore, they feel very safe in driving the share price even lower to increase the number of shares that will have to be issued in the next round of dilution so they can easily borrow more shares to short. This is a pattern we've seen played out many times over the years. MNKD management employs a minimum dilution strategy based on a series of assumptions that turn out to be optimistic when the share price drops more than expected and other positives take longer than expected or have less of an impact than they anticipated. The question here is whether Mike C has fallen into the same trap / pattern with the latest round of dilution. Will he actually see enough of an increase in script revenue, the STAT study, and partnerships to cause an increase in share price, or will the shorts be successful in holding down the share price to where even more shares need to be issued at a future date at an even lower price? What may be interesting is to ponder the following: 1. The STAT study isn't going to magically increase scripts overnight; we know that any change will likely take months to effect scripts 2. Partnerships aren't likely to include more than a month of two of operating cash Therefore, how does MNKD avoid another round of dramatically larger dilution post-June as the shorts successfully drive the share price down to half of what we had this time around? Thoughts? STAT doesn't bring in cash in any way. Scripts certainly aren't going up at a rate that will meaningfully cover the burn anytime this year. Given that burn is $90 to $100 million this year, even if there are some upfront payment for international deals there will still be a need for significant further raise of money using dilution. I would think longs as well as shorts would have calculated this. Wish I had a crystal ball to give you an answer on the direction of share price. |
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Post by mytakeonit on Apr 11, 2018 17:30:08 GMT -5
Check your crystal balls again ... the STAT study will bring in endos which will bring in cash/patients.
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Post by dreamboatcruise on Apr 11, 2018 17:38:16 GMT -5
Check your crystal balls again ... the STAT study will bring in endos which will bring in cash/patients. You probably need to check your expectations if you think scripts are going to soar rapidly right after the ADA presentation. Think about all the overblown expectations regarding the label change and the effect that would have on scripts. I'm sure STAT will be good results and show better time in range, but a vast majority of doctors are still thinking in terms of A1c. The STAT results will gradually become more useful as the medical community actually starts thinking about time in range, which is a process that is slowly happening. MNKD doesn't have the resources to be a major player in effecting that change. |
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Post by mytakeonit on Apr 11, 2018 18:02:00 GMT -5
Check and double check. That STAT study at the ADA will make endos aware of Afrezza. The rest will fall into place thereafter.
Hope the shorts can bring down the price faster ... my daughter is screaming that she wants me to buy her more shares! Kids ...
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Post by agedhippie on Apr 11, 2018 19:33:20 GMT -5
Check and double check. That STAT study at the ADA will make endos aware of Afrezza. The rest will fall into place thereafter. Hope the shorts can bring down the price faster ... my daughter is screaming that she wants me to buy her more shares! Kids ... STAT is a pilot trial. I expect the endo reaction will be, "That's interesting, can they repeat it in a proper trial?" That said the share price now is at a point where even I am thinking of buying. |
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Post by digger on Apr 11, 2018 21:57:56 GMT -5
Check your crystal balls again ... the STAT study will bring in endos which will bring in cash/patients. I agree with what AH said above, but more relevant is that the STAT study won't influence insurers. Winning the hearts and minds of endos won't affect insurers decisions one bit. |
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Post by pat on Apr 12, 2018 6:46:54 GMT -5
Sideways sales for the next three months. ADA meeting in June that yields much excitement and renewed sales push...but no new money. Continued short selling drives us down to...1.50? Maybe below 1.00? Only thing that will change the situation is the announcement of a partnership which mike alluded to recently in “Q2”. Just preparing myself. |
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Post by pat on Apr 12, 2018 6:47:29 GMT -5
Hope I’m wrong about sales. If they go up the shorts will have to pause.
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