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Post by boca1girl on Apr 12, 2018 13:52:21 GMT -5
I was looking for that $1.50, but we had a huge buyer mid day that closed that possibility. So, now we look to see how high we can go ... I put in a “proctive” buy order in at $1.51 this am to prevent it from going that low. So far, it’s worked. |
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Post by gamblerjag on Apr 12, 2018 14:22:41 GMT -5
Agree Kemp, That comment in addition to "Not if, but when" which some people might believe is just a CEO boilerplate statement... says Mike C is extremely confident, not just hopeful on where thing are going in the future.
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Post by traderdennis on Apr 12, 2018 14:36:18 GMT -5
Bill has accurately summarized the downside, or even what we may consider to be the status quo. But even though the STAT study results may not result in an immediate acceleration in scripts, it may give investors a reason to buy MNKD stock. The market is forward looking. It's the story that counts. And if the story changes, so will the market's attitude toward MNKD. If at some point there is any good news that changes the story, either shorts capitulate or someone will take a position to force a short squeeze. That's just the reality of the market. There is no guarantee the story will change. If only 25% of the STAT study patients maintained time in range for any significant amount of time then I doubt there will be a phase change in physicians' attitudes toward Afrezza. If the script growth of the past few weeks is not maintained or accelerated, then Mike C's story of a sales turnaround loses credibility. If a partnership is not finalized with a decent upfront cash payment this quarter, then the MNKD story deteriorates even more. However, if 80% or 90% of the STAT study subjects were able to dial-in Afrezza and stay in range for a significant period of time with no significant hypoglycemia or hyperglycemia, then I think physicians will take notice. So will institutions and investors with deep pockets. If scripts maintain the latest growth rate or the growth rate accelerates so that TRx break 600 and in May or June exceed Sanofi's highest number, then I think there is some support for the pps. If the partnership promised for this quarter comes through with an upfront cash payment of 20 - 50 million, then I think we see the pps bounce back. If Kendall takes to the road with a compelling story for Afrezza based on the STAT study and those 60 prior studies, then maybe the whole mindset changes about Afrezza and MNKD. If more than one of the above comes to fruition, then I think we and MNKD win, shorts lose. Game over. We have to remember that the longer Mike C is able to execute his strategic plan the more potential positives like the Levin study and Brazil and TreT come into play. Also, we tend to think of the non-US market as simply lowering per-unit COG. But in a situation where the uptake in the US is slow, additional clinical experience elsewhere could impact what is happening here as well. Obviously we do not know how any of this will turn out. But there are so many potential positives in play, I find it difficult to give up now. “If a partnership is not finalized with a decent upfront cash payment this quarter, then the MNKD story deteriorates even more” If the STAT studies are anything but bad, why would Mike sign any partnership before the results are released ?? I think any partnership will be signed after the STAT study results are revealed. And I also believe this is why we just raised the $$$ that some shareholders are disappointed about, other than the obvious reasons of keeping the lights on. I think getting by as we have been for a few more months is smart, as long as the STAT results are medium good to great. Limp along, release the study results, then look at finalizing any partnership deals they may have pending. Just my opinion, but I sure hope I’m right. My guess is that the term sheet is for China, and it is not AMPH which has first right of refusal. Get into the negotiating period with AMPH now before ADA. I would think Mike would want to renegotiate the insulin purchase requirements in exchange for letting them match the China deal. No upfront cash, but a much improved balance sheet in the future. |
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Post by traderdennis on Apr 12, 2018 14:38:47 GMT -5
“If a partnership is not finalized with a decent upfront cash payment this quarter, then the MNKD story deteriorates even more” If the STAT studies are anything but bad, why would Mike sign any partnership before the results are released ?? I think any partnership will be signed after the STAT study results are revealed. And I also believe this is why we just raised the $$$ that some shareholders are disappointed about, other than the obvious reasons of keeping the lights on. I think getting by as we have been for a few more months is smart, as long as the STAT results are medium good to great. Limp along, release the study results, then look at finalizing any partnership deals they may have pending. Just my opinion, but I sure hope I’m right. One deal supposedly already has a signed term sheet. What's the rationale for waiting on STAT presentation? China and Amphastar |
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Post by dreamboatcruise on Apr 12, 2018 14:43:13 GMT -5
“If a partnership is not finalized with a decent upfront cash payment this quarter, then the MNKD story deteriorates even more” If the STAT studies are anything but bad, why would Mike sign any partnership before the results are released ?? I think any partnership will be signed after the STAT study results are revealed. And I also believe this is why we just raised the $$$ that some shareholders are disappointed about, other than the obvious reasons of keeping the lights on. I think getting by as we have been for a few more months is smart, as long as the STAT results are medium good to great. Limp along, release the study results, then look at finalizing any partnership deals they may have pending. Just my opinion, but I sure hope I’m right. My guess is that the term sheet is for China, and it is not AMPH which has first right of refusal. Get into the negotiating period with AMPH now before ADA. I would think Mike would want to renegotiate the insulin purchase requirements in exchange for letting them match the China deal. No upfront cash, but a much improved balance sheet in the future. That was already done. Mike did renegotiate the insulin deal long ago and did give them the right to match any China deal. He can't now demand more for a right that he has already provided them. So if there is a term sheet with a third party AMPH would just accept the terms or turn them down. |
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Post by peppy on Apr 12, 2018 16:07:11 GMT -5
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Post by traderdennis on Apr 12, 2018 19:19:01 GMT -5
My guess is that the term sheet is for China, and it is not AMPH which has first right of refusal. Get into the negotiating period with AMPH now before ADA. I would think Mike would want to renegotiate the insulin purchase requirements in exchange for letting them match the China deal. No upfront cash, but a much improved balance sheet in the future. That was already done. Mike did renegotiate the insulin deal long ago and did give them the right to match any China deal. He can't now demand more for a right that he has already provided them. So if there is a term sheet with a third party AMPH would just accept the terms or turn them down. There still would be a period of time where amph has to either match or pass. |
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Post by sf1981 on Apr 13, 2018 7:12:14 GMT -5
50%-60% applies right now. A large increase in sales would bring down the cost/unit. Gross revenue in 2017 was about $12.5M, Net commercial sales revenue was 9.2M and total revenue was 11.7M. I think any kind of milestone payment or "deal" would fall under revenue, so it's tough to extrapolate sales expected for that guidance. From memory, Q4 was going to end up being $4M revenue, and extrapolating those sales units could work. My napkin math showed that 25M-30M guidance maps out to linearly doubling weekly sales by the end of the year. Aka $1M gross sales/week Thanks casualinvestor. That makes total sense. Doubling script dollars this year seems doable extrapolating current trends. Not that 25M-30M is a great result in itself, but it's no longer "nothing" and tripling sales in 2018 over 2017 will give them some much-needed credibility! |
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Post by peppy on Apr 13, 2018 7:22:56 GMT -5
50%-60% applies right now. A large increase in sales would bring down the cost/unit. Gross revenue in 2017 was about $12.5M, Net commercial sales revenue was 9.2M and total revenue was 11.7M. I think any kind of milestone payment or "deal" would fall under revenue, so it's tough to extrapolate sales expected for that guidance. From memory, Q4 was going to end up being $4M revenue, and extrapolating those sales units could work. My napkin math showed that 25M-30M guidance maps out to linearly doubling weekly sales by the end of the year. Aka $1M gross sales/week Thanks casualinvestor. That makes total sense. Doubling script dollars this year seems doable extrapolating current trends. Not that 25M-30M is a great result in itself, but it's no longer "nothing" and tripling sales in 2018 over 2017 will give them some much-needed credibility! Agreed. Casual investor posts are superior. I always like reading what casual investor posts. |
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Post by peppy on Apr 13, 2018 10:02:04 GMT -5
let's see some short covering, come on. the overall market set to tank. 600,681 real time shares traded in 1 1/2 hours. www.nasdaq.com/symbol/mnkd/real-time 742,842 shares in 2 hours Added: Never mind. 938,625 shares one min later. 200,000 shares took price down to $1.60. |
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Post by kc on Apr 18, 2018 13:15:30 GMT -5
Big Block trade?
what was that block of 500,000 shares that traded at 13:24:19 was that shares or options? |
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Post by centralcoastinvestor on Apr 18, 2018 13:17:51 GMT -5
It’s been an eerily quiet last couple of days on pps. It’s like everyone is holding their breath waiting for something.
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Post by mytakeonit on Apr 18, 2018 13:23:18 GMT -5
Shhhh ... I'm still transferring money.
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Post by kc on Apr 18, 2018 16:51:30 GMT -5
Some big blocks moved today.
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Post by centralcoastinvestor on Apr 18, 2018 17:24:21 GMT -5
After hours is interesting. Up .03 on volume of 172,088. One big block trade of 163,125.
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