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Post by Deleted on Aug 3, 2018 14:47:29 GMT -5
Cash has to come from somewhere. If there is not a pipe announced soon, then I would expect the share price to continue lower until a source of funding is announced or the loan rate rises signaling this is a short attack. Agree completely. Simple math tells you that if the company had $26 million in cash at June 30 and a Q2 burn rate of $9 million per month the company now has less than $20 million remaining on the balance sheet, which is certain to put them in violation of the Deerfield covenants at the end of Q3. That means either a significant financing or a renegotiation of the covenants is on the horizon, and we all know that Deerfield will take a pound of flesh for changing their loan terms. Mike keeps talking about non-dilutive financing sources, but unless he has a deal already in the final stages of legal review it will be almost impossible to consummate a deal in time. The longer he waits the less negotiation leverage he has. Which leads to the most likely conclusion that a PIPE is near. You don't need to be Nostradamus to figure that out so lots of market participants will be betting against MNKD and the downward pressure will continue until the deal is announced. A PIPE is not going to be easy or cheap, but the longer it takes to consummate a deal the more painful it will become as the price drifts lower. This is a case where ripping off the Band-Aid is a lot less painful than teasing it off in increments. Like Dennis said, cash has to come from somewhere and there are some expenses (like payroll) that cannot be delayed. Thanks Matt. If Mike really is going to use a PIPE then based on his comments yesterday, he would have zero credibility going forward. That said, if he does have a non-dillutive deal lined up, kudos to him. No surprise we are at an inflection point. BTW, with such a low SP, how much can be raised with a PIPE. $50mm max? |
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Post by traderdennis on Aug 3, 2018 14:55:07 GMT -5
Agree completely. Simple math tells you that if the company had $26 million in cash at June 30 and a Q2 burn rate of $9 million per month the company now has less than $20 million remaining on the balance sheet, which is certain to put them in violation of the Deerfield covenants at the end of Q3. That means either a significant financing or a renegotiation of the covenants is on the horizon, and we all know that Deerfield will take a pound of flesh for changing their loan terms. Mike keeps talking about non-dilutive financing sources, but unless he has a deal already in the final stages of legal review it will be almost impossible to consummate a deal in time. The longer he waits the less negotiation leverage he has. Which leads to the most likely conclusion that a PIPE is near. You don't need to be Nostradamus to figure that out so lots of market participants will be betting against MNKD and the downward pressure will continue until the deal is announced. A PIPE is not going to be easy or cheap, but the longer it takes to consummate a deal the more painful it will become as the price drifts lower. This is a case where ripping off the Band-Aid is a lot less painful than teasing it off in increments. Like Dennis said, cash has to come from somewhere and there are some expenses (like payroll) that cannot be delayed. Thanks Matt. If Mike really is going to use a PIPE then based on his comments yesterday, he would have zero credibility going forward. That said, if he does have a non-dillutive deal lined up, kudos to him. No surprise we are at an inflection point. BTW, with such a low SP, how much can be raised with a PIPE. $50mm max? In my opinion based on the last two pipes, this one will yield 20 million or less and that would be some of the pipe lenders taking share price risk over the weekend. If every share traded today was sold from a pipe participant, only 10 million shares traded that is not a lot of potential shares locked up. Remember only 38 million shares since July 1st have been traded. I think the price agreed at if a pipe is $1.05-1.10 per share plus some warrants based on where share price stabilized. |
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Post by agedhippie on Aug 3, 2018 15:01:51 GMT -5
I don't think there is anything to see, but you can bet the SEC will look at that drop. This is the flip side of the $6 spike, people trade the move which in turn drives the move.
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Post by hellodolly on Aug 3, 2018 15:04:56 GMT -5
Agree completely. Simple math tells you that if the company had $26 million in cash at June 30 and a Q2 burn rate of $9 million per month the company now has less than $20 million remaining on the balance sheet, which is certain to put them in violation of the Deerfield covenants at the end of Q3. That means either a significant financing or a renegotiation of the covenants is on the horizon, and we all know that Deerfield will take a pound of flesh for changing their loan terms. Mike keeps talking about non-dilutive financing sources, but unless he has a deal already in the final stages of legal review it will be almost impossible to consummate a deal in time. The longer he waits the less negotiation leverage he has. Which leads to the most likely conclusion that a PIPE is near. You don't need to be Nostradamus to figure that out so lots of market participants will be betting against MNKD and the downward pressure will continue until the deal is announced. A PIPE is not going to be easy or cheap, but the longer it takes to consummate a deal the more painful it will become as the price drifts lower. This is a case where ripping off the Band-Aid is a lot less painful than teasing it off in increments. Like Dennis said, cash has to come from somewhere and there are some expenses (like payroll) that cannot be delayed. Thanks Matt. If Mike really is going to use a PIPE then based on his comments yesterday, he would have zero credibility going forward. That said, if he does have a non-dillutive deal lined up, kudos to him. No surprise we are at an inflection point. BTW, with such a low SP, how much can be raised with a PIPE. $50mm max? 9AM August 03, 2018 West Lake Village: Mike C. walks into his office and there's message on his phone. CF leaving a message, "I know what you told your shareholders yesterday but, we need to do this today or some of it today. Call CF ASAP." And, just like that..Mike can be accused of lying Geeeez. |
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Post by cretin11 on Aug 3, 2018 15:06:27 GMT -5
Mike never said "we won't dilute" so why would he lose credibility by diluting?!
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Post by harryx1 on Aug 3, 2018 15:07:17 GMT -5
I don't think there is anything to see, but you can bet the SEC will look at that drop. This is the flip side of the $6 spike, people trade the move which in turn drives the move. Unless they're still at the pool drinking beverages with umbrellas in them... |
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Post by morgieporgie on Aug 3, 2018 15:09:20 GMT -5
I don't think there is anything to see, but you can bet the SEC will look at that drop. This is the flip side of the $6 spike, people trade the move which in turn drives the move. Unless they're still at the pool drinking beverages with umbrellas in them... Are you kidding? Stop complaining already, you sound foolish. |
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Post by bullofwallstreet on Aug 3, 2018 15:10:58 GMT -5
morgie you sound toxic asfk just logout
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Post by peppy on Aug 3, 2018 15:19:13 GMT -5
MNKD Nasdaq real time volume, 6,493,781 shares.
MNKD $1.14 -0.36. -24%
MNKD Nasdaq summary volume, 11,276,015 shares.
MNKD $1.15 -0.35. -23.33%. high $1.54 low .99
-A recap of sorts
- One million shares traded real time, with two hours left to go.
and price is dumping.
$1.37 - .13. - 8.67 %
-2,066,856 shares real time, that was a 1 million share dump in 28 minutes.
-3,001,218 another million shares in 9 mins
$1.15
-3,422,186 shares traded, 2million 422 thousand in 48mins.
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Post by mytakeonit on Aug 3, 2018 15:26:27 GMT -5
Pulled all the pennies from my accounts and was able to buy my daughter another 2k of shares.
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Post by peppy on Aug 3, 2018 15:26:53 GMT -5
can somebody check, how many MNKD puts were sold today?
was that a put party as well?
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Post by pantaloons on Aug 3, 2018 15:27:22 GMT -5
Mike never said "we won't dilute" so why would he lose credibility by diluting?! I imagine the concern is that Mike put investors under the impression that dilution will be a minor component of funding and likely will not be in the very immediate future (i.e., the next few days). If it turns out that sizable (enough to dramatically lower share price) dilution occurs within the next week (and before the implementation of any non-dilutive funding), then that would naturally shake investor confidence. After Mike's comment yesterday, I think many are hoping dilution will not be the very first source of funding. |
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Post by celo on Aug 3, 2018 15:33:57 GMT -5
Mike never said "we won't dilute" so why would he lose credibility by diluting?! I imagine the concern is that Mike put investors under the impression that dilution will be a minor component of funding and likely will not be in the very immediate future (i.e., the next few days). If it turns out that sizable (enough to dramatically lower share price) dilution occurs within the next week (and before the implementation of any non-dilutive funding), then that would naturally shake investor confidence. After Mike's comment yesterday, I think many are hoping dilution will not be the very first source of funding. Let's say Mike comes out and says, "there will be major dilution in the near future. Just finishing up the deal." What would happen to the stock price? It would tank massively. Much more than today. You can't come out and show your cards because everyone would manipulate the stock even more. MNKD will probably not have a near term non dilutive way to keep the company solvent. Mike probably is in discussions of some non-dilutive financing, the chances of which are pretty slim. But you have to keep the hope of that alive or you will really crater the stock price therefore lowering the amount of money you get when dilution does occur. |
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Post by traderdennis on Aug 3, 2018 15:35:41 GMT -5
can somebody check, how many MNKD puts were sold today? was that a put party as well? less than 1000 contracts traded today for mnkd puts. I don't have access to the tape to see if the more active call volume 8k was bearish (traded near or at the bid) or bullish (traded near or at the ask) |
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Post by cretin11 on Aug 3, 2018 15:35:54 GMT -5
Mike never said "we won't dilute" so why would he lose credibility by diluting?! I imagine the concern is that Mike put investors under the impression that dilution will be a minor component of funding and likely will not be in the very immediate future (i.e., the next few days). If it turns out that sizable (enough to dramatically lower share price) dilution occurs within the next week (and before the implementation of any non-dilutive funding), then that would naturally shake investor confidence. After Mike's comment yesterday, I think many are hoping dilution will not be the very first source of funding. That might explain it. However, anybody who really believed that was reading more into what Mike said, IMO. He presumably chooses his words carefully, and he didn't say non-dilutive financing would happen before dilution, nor did he speak to the timing of dilution (at least that i heard). We all know $$ is needed very soon. I am among those "hoping" dilution won't be the first source, but that's just pure hope and after yesterday's call (which was good in many respects) my hopes of that were lessened. |
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