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Post by Clement on Aug 17, 2018 9:22:48 GMT -5
Because sales numbers were so anemic in that 2017 time period, therefore a 2.6x increase isn't really as good as we were hoping? Actually, they were not anemic. Look at the chart "Monthly (4 week) totals" by Earl Grey and you will see that we were already having an increase after Mike C came on as CEO! mnkd.proboards.com/thread/2679/symphony-script-data?page=265
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Post by cretin11 on Aug 17, 2018 9:37:45 GMT -5
Because sales numbers were so anemic in that 2017 time period, therefore a 2.6x increase isn't really as good as we were hoping? Actually, they were not anemic. Look at the chart "Monthly (4 week) totals" by Earl Grey and you will see that we were already having an increase after Mike C came on as CEO! mnkd.proboards.com/thread/2679/symphony-script-data?page=265I guess one could quibble about what's considered "anemic" but most of us agree that NRx, TRx, RRx and revenue dollars are below what we were hoping and expecting by now (see hellodolly's 2018 prediction thread recap). IMO the 2017 Q3 numbers were anemic, especially considering the increase you cite from previously even worse figures. That said, our numbers are slowly (not as steadily as i'd like) creeping up, and Earl Grey's monthly graphs are probably my favorite posts on this message board. I always look forward to his graphs, they offer hope. Also, to answer your original question (why is share price down today despite decent script news), we've learned that weekly script counts rarely correlate to that day's share price movement. The only exception I recall is when the mistaken report was posted (using monthly numbers instead of weekly), we saw a huge immediate jump but unfortunately it retraced when the mistake was reported.
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Post by awesomo on Aug 17, 2018 9:42:26 GMT -5
It is this simple, the growth isn’t fast enough and doesn’t come close to keeping up with the cash burn from operations. Therefore we’re still stuck and held hostage by a cash crunch. Pointing out arbitrarily year over year growth doesn’t matter right now.
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Post by brotherm1 on Aug 17, 2018 9:44:10 GMT -5
nonsense. It certainly matters to anyone doing any funding with us
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Post by matt on Aug 17, 2018 10:04:14 GMT -5
nonsense. It certainly matters to anyone doing any funding with us It depends on whether the financing source is in it for the long-term or just an opportunistic hedge fund looking to grab some discounted shares. If the funding source is just in it for the discount (and maybe some warrants) they don't care about sales, the industry, or anything else except volume because the volume is what gives them a quick exit. As for why today's price is not up, it comes down to the expectation of news and what it will do to the stock price. Everybody knows the balance sheet needs more cash, and everybody knows that Deerfield Partners is owed a $3 million payment by the end of this month. Some people expect (not unreasonably) that Deerfield will settle for shares at a discount and maybe a further renegotiation of future payments and conversion prices, and that this will set a new indicative price. Alternatively, there is an expectation that the company will do a PIPE or accelerate use of the ATM to get over the near-term cash crunch, both of which are likely to exert downward pressure on the PPS. There is, of course, the possibility that Mike can pull a deal out of his magic hat that includes some up-front cash which would send the price upward instead of downward. On balance, there will be a binary event of some type between now and August 31 and the near-term impact of that pending announcement overshadows a one week movement in script price. If there was no announcement on the horizon, things might be different.
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Post by cretin11 on Aug 17, 2018 10:14:19 GMT -5
It does matter to some extent, and it is good to show the improvement. It's kinda like a basketball team that has a 1-15 record one year. If the next year they go 3-13, it's not very compelling to say "we won three times the games we won last year!" The coaching staff is probably still not happy, nor are the fans. What matters is if they've laid the proper foundation to improve again, season after season, until becoming a contender or champion.
MNKD is like that 3-13 team, we aren't as bad as last year but we are still looking way up to where we need to be. Heading in the right direction, but also fighting that time/money element, hence we're all on edge waiting to hear news of capitalization.
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Post by awesomo on Aug 17, 2018 11:10:44 GMT -5
nonsense. It certainly matters to anyone doing any funding with us We're in a thread about volume and he specifically was wondering how this year over year growth was not moving the share price. That is what I was referencing.
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Post by tomtabb on Aug 17, 2018 12:05:39 GMT -5
nonsense. It certainly matters to anyone doing any funding with us It depends on whether the financing source is in it for the long-term or just an opportunistic hedge fund looking to grab some discounted shares. If the funding source is just in it for the discount (and maybe some warrants) they don't care about sales, the industry, or anything else except volume because the volume is what gives them a quick exit. As for why today's price is not up, it comes down to the expectation of news and what it will do to the stock price. Everybody knows the balance sheet needs more cash, and everybody knows that Deerfield Partners is owed a $3 million payment by the end of this month. Some people expect (not unreasonably) that Deerfield will settle for shares at a discount and maybe a further renegotiation of future payments and conversion prices, and that this will set a new indicative price. Alternatively, there is an expectation that the company will do a PIPE or accelerate use of the ATM to get over the near-term cash crunch, both of which are likely to exert downward pressure on the PPS. There is, of course, the possibility that Mike can pull a deal out of his magic hat that includes some up-front cash which would send the price upward instead of downward. On balance, there will be a binary event of some type between now and August 31 and the near-term impact of that pending announcement overshadows a one week movement in script price. If there was no announcement on the horizon, things might be different. I noticed in the 10-Q that it says, "requires the Company to maintain at least $20.0 million in cash and cash equivalents as of the end of each fiscal quarter through December 31, 2018 and $25.0 million for fiscal quarters thereafter." Why does it revert back to 25 million in 2019?
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Post by mnkdfann on Aug 17, 2018 12:09:25 GMT -5
I noticed in the 10-Q that it says, "requires the Company to maintain at least $20.0 million in cash and cash equivalents as of the end of each fiscal quarter through December 31, 2018 and $25.0 million for fiscal quarters thereafter." Why does it revert back to 25 million in 2019? I think none of us have any way of knowing. But presumably that is the most Deerfield was willing to compromise.
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Post by tomtabb on Aug 17, 2018 13:53:00 GMT -5
I noticed in the 10-Q that it says, "requires the Company to maintain at least $20.0 million in cash and cash equivalents as of the end of each fiscal quarter through December 31, 2018 and $25.0 million for fiscal quarters thereafter." Why does it revert back to 25 million in 2019? I think none of us have any way of knowing. But presumably that is the most Deerfield was willing to compromise. Yes, but they lowered it from 25 to 20 a couple quarters or so ago, and given that MNKD has paid back the better part of the debt, you'd think they could ease up and either lower it even further or better yet, simply remove it. Why bust MNKD's chops by bumping it up again?
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Post by awesomo on Aug 17, 2018 13:58:39 GMT -5
I think none of us have any way of knowing. But presumably that is the most Deerfield was willing to compromise. Yes, but they lowered it from 25 to 20 a couple quarters or so ago, and given that MNKD has paid back the better part of the debt, you'd think they could ease up and either lower it even further or better yet, simply remove it. Why bust MNKD's chops by bumping it up again? Because Deerfield is not an ally and are doing whatever they can to maintain as much leverage is possible. Having MannKind in financial distress is beneficial to them.
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Post by traderdennis on Aug 17, 2018 14:22:09 GMT -5
I think none of us have any way of knowing. But presumably that is the most Deerfield was willing to compromise. Yes, but they lowered it from 25 to 20 a couple quarters or so ago, and given that MNKD has paid back the better part of the debt, you'd think they could ease up and either lower it even further or better yet, simply remove it. Why bust MNKD's chops by bumping it up again? Since DF can not take a metal pipe and threaten to break Mike's knees, the 20-25 million covenant is next best.
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Post by peppy on Aug 17, 2018 15:16:56 GMT -5
MNKD Nasdaq real time volume, 593,046 shares. MNKD Nasdaq summary volume, 1,087,083 shares. MNKD $1.07. -0.06. -5.31% www.nasdaq.com/symbol/mnkd
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Post by peppy on Aug 20, 2018 8:42:22 GMT -5
MNKD has volume this morning, 103,076 shares in 10 mins these days is good. MNKD $1.12* 0.054.67% let's see. Doesn't MNKD have a 10 million dollar payment to deerfield on the 30th? or did I lose track?
added, 259,290 shares traded real time at the one hour mark. $1.09.
this little share buying may be residual secondary to expiry last week?
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Post by mnkdfann on Aug 20, 2018 8:55:51 GMT -5
Doesn't MNKD have a 10 million dollar payment to deerfield on the 30th? or did I lose track? SO's latest article mentions that Mannkind owes "Deerfield $3 million by August 31st" and "about $2.7 million to Amphastar in this quarter". Also, some additional millions are required to top up the cash level needed for the Deerfield covenant. No one (outside of Mannkind and maybe Deerfield) knows what that is, but if I read his article correctly I think he estimates that to be about $4.3 million. So that all actually totals to about $10 million, but not all to Deerfield.
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