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Post by rockyp on Jun 30, 2014 20:03:41 GMT -5
Welllll, I know I was off on my prediction for the share price today. First time ever. :-)
The shares were worth more to me today with the risk of FDA shenanigans out of the way as compared to last week so I increased my position by 10%. I still can't fathom why someone who would hold the shares last week at $10.70 would sell them today at $11.00, but obviously somebody was happy to sell. Good for them, I suppose.
With today being the end of the month, it will be interesting to see the short report in a couple of weeks. Were the heavy volumes Friday and today due to shorts cutting their losses, or are they still betting heavily on no partnership?
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Post by frenchysxm on Jun 30, 2014 20:20:58 GMT -5
Not sure I agree with your immediate scenario. I think we pull back hard over the next few days. I say this as I have watched the stock trade tick by tick day in day out month in month out (retired with time on my hands) and I did not like how it traded today. I felt the stock got amazing recognition this past weekend. I anticipated follow through with new retail buying, institutional strengthening, short covering ect... I was not looking for an over the top move but pure simple validation. Even though some argue that the upside was reflected in the share price I felt there was still an element of risk regarding the label implications that deserved some small reward. I agree with the "parade raining contributor" that the post approval pop was all of .20 some cents, as it was trading at $10.70 right before approval. I think we would be in a much better position if the company had been better prepared in delivering talking points on partnership and not making a statement committing to a 6 to 8 week time frame after approval. That simple game changing comment was unnecessary and costly in the short term. A simple "We are working on a partnership to be announced ASAP'. I think the powers that be will capitalize on the down time in front of us to erode the gains. The question I ask myself is does it make sense to watch the gains evaporate? I tell myself it is a paper loss and I will make the monies back before the partnership. Then I think why take the loss at all? I think why not just clear the table? wait for the pull back and re establish the position. Then I think what if they cannot get a strong partnership and do a secondary offering? (More risk) So I finally made the decision half crazy half sane. I sold 1/2 the position this afternoon and will hold the other half. If we get the pull back I anticipate over the next few days I will re purchase the shares. I base my opinion on todays trading but tomorrow is another day!
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Post by 4allthemarbles on Jun 30, 2014 21:21:45 GMT -5
Unless the sky falls, which it won't, I'm not selling. I'm buying. I am investing in MNKD. This thing could be another 1 to 2 years before the official dust settles (partner, other country submissions, plant going online, foreign plants, prescriptions, etc.). Obviously some of those things will happen sooner not later. BUT, the risk is gone. Biggest hurdles jumped. Now it will just be little hurdles.
There's going to be some volatility. Let the shorts sweat it out now.
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Post by bobw on Jun 30, 2014 21:43:22 GMT -5
I think it makes perfect sense that most on here would not add after approval. If your cost basis is in the $2 range, increasing your stake by 20% will cost you the same amount as your original investment. From a risk perspective, it doesn't make sense to buy now if you already have a large position.
On the other hand, I feel like risk has gone way down. Before Friday, the share price could have gone below $1 in a matter of minutes with another CRL. Now that we have approval, I can't imagine an event that could cause that kind of price decline in a relatively short time. The only way the price could go below a dollar is for the commercialization to completely fail, which I don't think will happen, and it would take a year or more for the failure to occur. So, my take is that, our risk of loss is way down. Even though the price did not move much on approval, risk adjusted, we are way ahead since approval. Since the stock (on a risk adjusted basis) is cheaper today, I expect new investors will start buying.
I view the approval as putting a floor on the price, rather than the main catalyst for a price increase. The real price increase will come from expectations of a partnership and then from the agreement itself, followed by successful commercialization.
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Post by alcc on Jul 1, 2014 0:01:20 GMT -5
To make adding shares even more difficult: if you bought anywhere near $2, with the shares up ~5x, and assuming the rest of your portfolio has not done nearly as well, MNKD has become a much bigger percent of your portfolio. Even with the risk reduced post approval, the question remains whether it is prudent to increase MNKD as a percent of your portfolio.
Net, net, I think we need infusion of new buyers/money to push the stock higher. For the new buyer the calculation is simply to weigh the chance of the stock having another 50+% upside in the next 12 months versus the chance of a pull back from these levels.
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Post by babaoriley on Jul 1, 2014 1:01:59 GMT -5
Well, although I espoused the "approval priced in" theory, I drank the Kool-Aid (more likely Spiro's ouzo), and finally talked myself into thinking we had to have a strong rally today. In fact, of all the likely scenarios I could have painted for today's stock price action, the one that occurred would have struck me as the least likely!! The two final straws to make me believe we'd be up to at least $12 was the amount of publicity we received over the weekend and the story about restricting short selling. How the stock remained in such a tight range is hard for me to understand.
So I bought some more stock, I bought some more warrants, and closed out some of the short portion of my bull call calendar spreads, so I spent a lot of money going long on MNKD today. I did sell a small portion of the long side of the bull call spreads, to help finance the transactions.
Bottom line, I'm longer than I was on Friday afternoon, and happy about it. I have a feeling we will drop gently the remainder of this week, stabilize around $10, and see no real big moves up or down after that until more news is forthcoming. I've been out all afternoon and evening, so I don't even know if MNKD has scheduled a cc yet. They really ought to.
Seems there is an opportunity, for those who have some buying power left. I think many were tapped and margined out by the time approval came, so not much ability for us to help the stock up. My thought of the unknowing public coming in today was pretty obviously wrong.
GLTA!!
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Post by jpg on Jul 1, 2014 3:22:39 GMT -5
Don't know if the huge volume today really reflects more then pseudo volume (as it isn't very hard for a few firms to sell the same shares back and forth to each other at relatively fixed prices) but I do know that Afrezza has been approved. This is what counts. Not the extremely short term reaction of a fickle and not so smart market. Look at what 'experts' and the market said of iPods, iPhones and iPads. Everyone of these devices was a hit but the same negative opinions kept resurfacing no matter how often they were proven wrong. Disruptive change is almost always met with resistance. Once established the naysayers are often the ones that say 'it was obvious this would work'.
I don't know if the price will go up or down in the next week or 2 but I do know that I want to stick around (with my shares) to find out what the price will be medium to long term.
JPG
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Post by mannmade on Jul 1, 2014 9:15:39 GMT -5
Yes if I recall correctly jpg Steve Balmer said the iPhone would never take off... The real question for me is how do the bear's/shorts keep doing this? I mean at some point it becomes really unbelievable... It's like a Kafka Nightmare... Don't get me wrong... I bought my first shares 5 years ago, accumulating quite a bit along the way and as Baba did went and bought more on Friday on the dip (which still look good) and will continue to accumulate as appropriate... (As I believe in the science) And although I did believe that at 10.00 ps approval was priced in pending label. I also thought with a decent label we were at 11 to 12.00 ps And I think the label was quite decent... How do they do it...? Seems they can't lose. Am still waiting for the mythical short squeeze...
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Post by babaoriley on Jul 1, 2014 9:51:29 GMT -5
Ah, yes, the "mythical short squeeze" - I've said if for years, short squeezes are incredibly rare, and, in fact, the shorts are better than ever at finding ways, legal or quasi-legal, to escape. I really thought we had a chance to see one here yesterday, but like the guy who travels to a far away continent to get a photo of the yellow bellied yak in mating season, we missed the shot! Will be interesting to see if we get another, first, let's see the current short interest, then hope a partnership announcement catches them offsides. It will be then when we will be treated to either a great jump in value or another in a series of incredible, Houdini-like escapes.
Oh, that stuff I wrote about Canadian message boards and excessive giddiness, apparently works pretty well south of the border, too! LOL!
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Post by mannmade on Jul 1, 2014 9:56:55 GMT -5
Here's the funny part Baba, I just applied for Canadian Citizenship, (Mother is Canadian) so can be a dual citizen and buy some property in Canada as a hedge against Global warming... Apparently I was way too giddy... However I do remain resolute in my beliefs about the ultimate outcome... (Just read the quotes under my avitar) Thanks for your friendship, wisdom, insights and musings...
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Post by ezrasfund on Jul 1, 2014 10:26:16 GMT -5
It is interesting how the MNKD chart now echos the chart around the AdCom period, especially if you include the crash on Friday which is not seen on the chart of closing prices. With 20/20 hindsight is it really possible that the share price tanked before AdCom because of the briefing docs and then only rose back to the previous $6.50 levels, levels that it had achieved around the time that MNKD announced successful completion of the trials? Successful completion with all sorts of doubts about "missing data" and inferior HbA1c reductions, that is. But then 6 weeks after the near unanimous AdCom vote the price rose from $6.50 to $10+ for no reason, except maybe that the realization that approval a certainty. Was it really a certainty? It didn't seem that way to me with the always unpredictable, ever corrupt FDA. So now the price sits at $10+ (or $4B market cap, as I prefer to look at it), waiting for news on partnership. Will it again sit here for weeks and then move up to the $15 range before the partnership announcement? One thing is certain with 20/20 hindsight. There is no easy money to be made on Wall Street, and if you do make some, there is always someone trying to take it from you.
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Post by jpg on Jul 1, 2014 11:18:10 GMT -5
Yes if I recall correctly jpg Steve Balmer said the iPhone would never take off... The real question for me is how do the bear's/shorts keep doing this? I mean at some point it becomes really unbelievable... It's like a Kafka Nightmare... Don't get me wrong... I bought my first shares 5 years ago, accumulating quite a bit along the way and as Baba did went and bought more on Friday on the dip (which still look good) and will continue to accumulate as appropriate... (As I believe in the science) And although I did believe that at 10.00 ps approval was priced in pending label. I also thought with a decent label we were at 11 to 12.00 ps And I think the label was quite decent... How do they do it...? Seems they can't lose. Am still waiting for the mythical short squeeze... Any forward contract (short sale) needs to be repaid slowly or quickly. The 'mythical short squeeze' is a quick and disorderly repayment and not that frequent. The orderly repayment is less obvious price support. Both are our friend. One is obvious and very gratifying while the other is subtle and financially gratifying. Capitulation of the shorts is what needs to happen. Is there asymmetrical advantages to being short? Maybe. Criminal naked short selling is an obvious possibility that seems to be going on with Maankind shares. Failure to deliver doesn't seem to be sanctioned ever? As a group we should track this more closely maybe? This could be a very useful leading indicator? No sanctions ever seem to be applied to what seems to the outside observer to be stock manipulation. Short interest is posted only every 2 wks which again is not transparent. Sadly we have a broken regulator overseeing markets. Short term this is an obvious disadvantage. Long term I don't think so. On the contrary this short term mentality gave many of us a chance to pick up shares in the mid 1$ range and future upward swings seem inevitable. Just need a long term belief in what this company is doing. I have that in abundant quantity. We all want share price reward/ action and we want it now obviously. And we got it. Most here bought shares or had an opportunity to buy shares all the way down to below 2$ not that long ago. We are at over 10$. Anyone who says that this is slow needs to look at a compounding interest calculation chart! Again: we have FDA approval! This is what the 'world' waits for and now it is behind us. No matter what fools who have been reliably and consistently wrong up to now say Mannkind has meet every challenge and moved forward. JPG
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Post by kc on Jul 1, 2014 12:36:58 GMT -5
I would not worry about the issue on a partner. If you heard what Haken stated on Fox yesterday they are working hard to determine direction. They have a deal lined up you can take that to the bank. My guess and its a guess only is that TIMING IS EVERYTHING to announcing a partner. You don't make the biggest announcement of your companies history on a slow business week when everybody in America is on vacation. Especially the money folks like traders and wall street. They are watching the market but not really engaged. Think about either July 7th or July 14th. The 7th might be too early as folks are still on vacation but the 14th would work.
THEY WANT TO TAKE THE MARKET BY STORM. LOOK AT THE VOLUME THEY LAST TWO DAYS. More shares of MNKD traded yesterday then Apple. They want to SIZZLE to go with the Steak.
Take a breather from your imaginary Technosphere and get ready for the partner. YOUR DRUG, OUR DELIVERY!
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Post by babaoriley on Jul 3, 2014 18:25:40 GMT -5
Bottom line, I'm longer than I was on Friday afternoon, and happy about it. I have a feeling we will drop gently the remainder of this week, stabilize around $10, and see no real big moves up or down after that until more news is forthcoming. Just sayin'! Okay, you can figure my next three guesses will be pretty awful.
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Post by bradleysbest on Jul 7, 2014 0:17:13 GMT -5
I'll leave the projections to the pros (Baba & Slushy)!
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