|
|
Post by dreamboatcruise on Mar 5, 2018 15:13:48 GMT -5
compound26... it does seem there was hinting going on regarding India and China, but I wouldn't rule out it merely being a tease, like has been done with RLS. Certainly nothing he said was concrete enough that he could get in trouble for misleading if deals aren't pending in those countries. But I suppose they are as plausible as any other for deals that might get done. If it's China and the term sheet is with anyone other than Amphastar, then Amphastar gets right to jump in based on the same terms.
|
|
|
|
Post by compound26 on Apr 9, 2018 16:28:51 GMT -5
India and China: here comes Afrezza! Based on what Mike stated in the last CC, it appears the two countries that he referred to have term sheets (one signed and the other is being finalized) are India and China. Evidence 1: investors.mannkindcorp.com/static-files/76875d41-2743-4a29-a76a-bc00f6d1ea33On the slide of international expansion (Slide No. 30), India and China are the only countries have additional notation. You would think there are some reasons why Mannkind did that. Evidence 2: Mike said on the call "I believe with the 80 million to 100 million people in some of these markets, who have and AIC at 10 [ph] just a minor share in these segments will offset a tremendous difference in people's lives." That is referring to India. On the slide for international expansion, the notation for India is : 80 million people in India with diabetes; average A1C is 10. Evidence 3: Someone in stocktwits mentioned that Mannkind IR is saying they are negotiating for a China licensing deal. stocktwits.com/pmhaps/message/113712041Evidence 4: In the interview that Mike did last October (interview with SiriusXM Business Radio Powered by The Wharton School), Mike talking about filing in the next 12 month in regions that will cover 50% of the world population. To achieve that, Mannkind got to expand to both China and India this year. seekingalpha.com/article/4151494-mannkinds-mnkd-ceo-michael-castagna-q4-2017-results-earnings-call-transcript?part=singleAdditionally, we have a [signed] term sheet for a large market outside the U.S. and we're in the process of finalizing a second term sheet. One of both is we hope to announce in the first of this year, but as you know, these things take time. We do expect these deal structures will have a combination of upfront milestones royalties and more importantly we need to continue to serve patients around the world - while we know these markets may not generate a lot of cash, they will tremendously make a difference for society, and I believe with the 80 million to 100 million people in some of these markets, who have and AIC at 10 [ph] just a minor share in these segments will offset a tremendous difference in people's lives. In the end, we have a large manufacturing plant that we continue to maintain and these markets will continue queue up some of the purchase commitment in the earlier while we delivered sustained growth for the company here in the U.S. and other markets. Note: seeking alpha had it as a [fine] term sheet. But one listened to the CC, Mike clearly said [signed] term sheet. So Mike expressly confirmed in his (H C Wainwright Conference) presentation today that Mannkind is working on India, China and Mexico. This confirms our earlier speculations that the two term sheet Mike referred to earlier was related to India and China. So it appears to me that Mike is at least trying to be as transparent as possible. Often times, he probably can not expressly disclose the details of a potential deal, but he seems to be willing to provide shareholder with as mush information as he can. He similarly disclosed enough information earlier on about the PBM contract they were working on (CVS) before he expressly confirmed it. Overall, I like this little improvement in transparency. Additionally, my further guess (this is a pure guess) is that the signed term sheet is for India and the term sheet that is still subject to negotiation is for China. The rationale for my guess is that Mike seems to be more certain when talking about India market, and less certain when talking about the China market. |
|
|
|
Post by dreamboatcruise on Apr 10, 2018 13:40:08 GMT -5
compound26 ... I almost would take the flip side of your bet and say China is the signed term sheet. To me it seems it is taking a pretty long time to conclude the deal. So I'm speculating that it may be a term sheet with someone other than AMPH and thus the term sheet would give time for AMPH to review and either exercise or decline their right of first refusal. But you may well be right, though I'm confident enough in my view to wager you a dime. 
|
|
|
|
Post by lennymnkd on Apr 10, 2018 14:34:10 GMT -5
“And the rationale for my guess is that Mike seems to be more certain when talking about India market, and less certain when talking about the China market.”
Interesting observation compound !
|
|
|
|
Post by mnholdem on Apr 10, 2018 16:15:11 GMT -5
Does selling a drug in China require a large sales force or are negotiations done with central authorities that also handle distribution throughout the country? I ask because it seems to me that Amphastar doesn't appear to have deep enough pockets for a large sales force. They do business in China, though, so they have connections already established.
|
|
|
|
Post by dreamboatcruise on Apr 10, 2018 17:45:52 GMT -5
Does selling a drug in China require a large sales force or are negotiations done with central authorities that also handle distribution throughout the country? I ask because it seems to me that Amphastar doesn't appear to have deep enough pockets for a large sales force. They do business in China, though, so they have connections already established. Not sure this answers your question but has some interesting info none the less. www.trade.gov/topmarkets/pdf/Pharmaceuticals_China.pdf |
|
|
|
Post by mytakeonit on Apr 10, 2018 17:51:21 GMT -5
Sounds good to me. But, this board will only allow sales in China if they give us script counts.
|
|
|
|
Post by mnkdfann on Apr 10, 2018 18:00:58 GMT -5
Speaking of Canada, there are a number of barriers to an American company being successful up here. Target, for example, could not hack it. Mannkind is not Target, but it would face a number of the same issues Target did: small population, big geographic spread, high cost of shipping, special packaging, exchange rate considerations, etc. Basically, the cost of selling Afrezza in Canada would likely be much higher, yet it would probably have to be discounted in price compared to in the U.S. Reasons for Target's failure in Canada: globalnews.ca/news/1776725/7-reasons-target-struggled-to-be-awesome-in-canada/ |
|
|
|
Post by akemp3000 on Apr 10, 2018 18:10:57 GMT -5
Some of these countries could be ripe for the One Drop, Amazon and Afrezza subscription model if acceptable. It might be difficult to introduce a new business model but if so, it could help diabetics quickly.
|
|
|
|
Post by dreamboatcruise on Apr 10, 2018 18:15:00 GMT -5
Some of these countries could be ripe for the One Drop, Amazon and Afrezza subscription model if acceptable. It might be difficult to introduce a new business model but if so, it could help diabetics quickly. A subscription model does nothing to shorten the regulatory approval processes in countries, which is often the long pole. |
|
|
|
Post by lennymnkd on Apr 10, 2018 18:37:34 GMT -5
AFREZZA; standard of care for the world ! That will do the trick .
|
|
|
|
Post by mnholdem on Apr 10, 2018 19:11:36 GMT -5
Does selling a drug in China require a large sales force or are negotiations done with central authorities that also handle distribution throughout the country? I ask because it seems to me that Amphastar doesn't appear to have deep enough pockets for a large sales force. They do business in China, though, so they have connections already established. Not sure this answers your question but has some interesting info none the less. www.trade.gov/topmarkets/pdf/Pharmaceuticals_China.pdfDysfunctional distribution system was all I needed to read. It appears that Afrezza in China will take a very large sales force, as hospitals handle most of the prescriptions. Lots of hospitals = lots of visits by sales reps. I'd be interested in learning whether the appeal of a needle-free insulin may give Afrezza an edge. Thanks for the link. |
|
