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Post by mnkdfann on Mar 2, 2018 23:05:21 GMT -5
There's too many outstanding issues that could could affect dilution requirements even in 2018. One significant stock sale in 2018 could eliminate the need for dilution in 2019 all together. Others include the two new international term sheets currently being finalized plus Biomm in Brazil beginning sales in early 2019. Add to this the unknown but forthcoming results from the STAT study and Dr. Kendall coming on board and maybe even a partnership for Trep-T. The math exercise is appreciated but IMHO it's highly unlikely that dilution will be required all the way to the end of 2019. Yes. Agree AKemp. There are too many variables to attempt to calculate potential dilution with any reasonable accuracy. Adding to your list..... What if Mannkind gets $100 Million in Milestone payments that we're established in the RLS agreement? If that starting happening this quarter, further dilution could be significantly reduced. $100 million milestone. Sure. That would be sweet. Or maybe if a meteorite of solid gold lands on property owned by Mannkind, we could be set. Maybe not one big meteorite, because that landfall would cause widespread devastation and havoc. Better 20 or 30 smallish gold meteorites. Worth 10s of millions of dollars each. That no one is even considering the possibility, sort of makes me think it has already happened.
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Post by bthomas55ep on Mar 2, 2018 23:47:39 GMT -5
Yes. Agree AKemp. There are too many variables to attempt to calculate potential dilution with any reasonable accuracy. Adding to your list..... What if Mannkind gets $100 Million in Milestone payments that we're established in the RLS agreement? If that starting happening this quarter, further dilution could be significantly reduced. $100 million milestone. Sure. That would be sweet. Or maybe if a meteorite of solid gold lands on property owned by Mannkind, we could be set. Maybe not one big meteorite, because that landfall would cause widespread devastation and havoc. Better 20 or 30 smallish gold meteorites. Worth 10s of millions of dollars each. That no one is even considering the possibility, sort of makes me think it has already happened. I realize you are pointing out what I highlighted was pie in the sky, however, I want to make sure you do realize there is a standing agreement with RLS that does outline over $100 Million in Milestone payment opportunities? investors.mannkindcorp.com/news-releases/news-release-details/mannkind-enters-collaboration-and-license-agreementAt the same time, the golden meteorites concept would be a great way to avoid dilution too. I'll take either!
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Post by parrerob on Mar 3, 2018 7:57:49 GMT -5
If gold meteorites fall down then I prefer directly on my garden then on MNKD property.... Why not? Ah ah sure my math is wrong and not including many variables like debt and correct cogs and other development partnership milestones etc... But it was just a calc to see what could be the effect of dilution in some way.... The biggest issue imo is not debt effect or correct balance sheet calc but the 20% increase quarter by quarter... Let's see
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Post by babaoriley on Mar 3, 2018 12:07:45 GMT -5
If gold meteorites fall down then I prefer directly on my garden then on MNKD property.... Why not? Ah ah sure my math is wrong and not including many variables like debt and correct cogs and other development partnership milestones etc... But it was just a calc to see what could be the effect of dilution in some way.... The biggest issue imo is not debt effect or correct balance sheet calc but the 20% increase quarter by quarter... Let's see parrerob, you're a MNKD investor and you want gold meteorites to fall in your garden? You need to think that through a bit more carefully - as a MNKD shareholder, I can assure you, you'll be tending your garden when that first meteorite falls.
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Post by babaoriley on Mar 3, 2018 12:13:18 GMT -5
I don't think your numbers fully reflect the cash cost of operating expenses or, in particular, the cash cost of manufacturing the product. Those numbers will run close to $100 million especially if MNKD is aggressively selling (which increases the sales and marketing spend). Remember that net sales for 2017 were $9.2 million but cost of production was $17.2 million, or a loss at the gross profit line. It is certainly the case that a lot of manufacturing cost is fixed overhead that won't change very much with volume increases or decreases, there must also be a significant variable cost component baked into those numbers, but there is not enough detailed information on production economics in the 10-K to tease out the split of fixed versus variable cost. The other thing to watch out for are the mandatory debt repayments scheduled for 2018 (and early in 2019) and the minimum insulin purchases from Amphastar. Those charges may not appear on the income statement, but they are cash effects that will hit the balance sheet during the accounting year. Those are cash requirements have to be funded as well. Matt, have you admitted to being short MNKD yet? If so, this post is unnecessary. If not, go ahead and admit it. No one as sharp in securities issues and in the specific subject matter of MNKD's business, who is as dispassionate as you, and posts as you do could possibly be long. Best case, you're neutral, and if you are neutral, then why do you follow and post here? Like pulling wings off flies? Another thought, though, would be that you like to play short term options on this stock - you're smart enough to make some decent returns doing that.
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Post by akemp3000 on Mar 4, 2018 21:59:18 GMT -5
To sum up the thread. Yes. You'll most likely be proven wrong but the exercise and thread is still appreciated.
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Post by me on Mar 8, 2018 13:49:37 GMT -5
Post by mytakeonit on about an hour ago "From an accounting standpoint, you never lose money selling something. You may not be profitable now, but it seems like that may be resolved shortly." Yeah, I could use a little help with this business concept myself. It's trolling.Yes, yes it is. And it's been going on for 13 months now.
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Post by mytakeonit on Mar 8, 2018 13:58:58 GMT -5
Only 13 months??? I thought I was invested in MNKD since 2014? I'll have to check. But yes, I love to fish ... bottom fishing is the best ... at 82 cents. Oh, maybe the 13 months is when I started on this board? That could be right.
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