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Post by pat on Mar 15, 2018 17:17:27 GMT -5
I always check Nate’s comments on stocktwits. Today he asserted that shorts are betting on bankruptcy. He has done so before. I get it and don’t disagree. But what I’m struggling with are they perhaps instead betting on dilution. I must admit I don’t understand the intricacies of what happened last year with the 10mm offering at 6. But is he effectively saying that any offering of any size will also be well bid? Shorts will not be able to get a piece to cover at anywhere near where the stock is trading now? This would seem to be at odds with Deerfield getting shares for debt and selling them into the market.
Any thoughts welcome.
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Post by matt on Mar 15, 2018 18:03:40 GMT -5
Dilution will depress the price and allow shorts to cover at a lower price. Given the vote to authorize more shares, and the daily trading volume, bankruptcy is off the table for a few years at least. So long as a public company can issue more shares, and has enough trading volume to attract investors, bankruptcy is not something to worry about.
If the company runs out of shares and can't get authorization for more, or trading volume dries up so that new shares cannot be sold, or the company is unable to refinance or defer a large maturing debt then that is another matter, but none of those are likely in the near term.
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Question
Mar 15, 2018 18:37:50 GMT -5
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Post by sportsrancho on Mar 15, 2018 18:37:50 GMT -5
I always check Nate’s comments on stocktwits. Today he asserted that shorts are betting on bankruptcy. He has done so before. I get it and don’t disagree. But what I’m struggling with are they perhaps instead betting on dilution. I must admit I don’t understand the intricacies of what happened last year with the 10mm offering at 6. But is he effectively saying that any offering of any size will also be well bid? Shorts will not be able to get a piece to cover at anywhere near where the stock is trading now? This would seem to be at odds with Deerfield getting shares for debt and selling them into the market. Any thoughts welcome. He may be talking about the shorts that got in over $10 and have yet to get out...
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Post by mytakeonit on Mar 15, 2018 19:47:21 GMT -5
I warned the shorts to get out a few months ago ... while they still could. Now the volume has dried up and there is no where to run.
I dreamt that Stephen Hawking had a net worth of $20M and had set his will to buy all the MNKD shares that was possible. He felt that it would create a black hole under the shorts and cause a whole new window for teleportation back into this realm. We may be seeing Stephen, Al, and Albert around soon. Yes, I am on a first name basis with them now. Drink enough wine or DOM ... and you will be too!
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Post by sportsrancho on Mar 15, 2018 20:03:04 GMT -5
I just read all of Nate’s post very interesting:-) can’t wait to see all that play out!
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Post by bill on Mar 15, 2018 20:39:12 GMT -5
I just read all of Nate’s post very interesting:-) can’t wait to see all that play out! @sportsrancho - The wild card here is that Mike C's financial forecast is unlikely to be met with just the script growth we've been seeing over the last few months. I think it's reasonable to conclude that Mike thinks he's got several ways to meet his financial forecast. The question is what, when, and with what probability? I'm pretty sure one of the arrows in his financial quiver must be a dramatic growth in scripts post the STAT study results in June. But that spike in scripts won't be seen for weeks or months, though it might immediately affect the stock price. Partnerships based on his term sheets are other events that can help him meet his financial forecast. Based on what hasn't happened so far this calendar year, some of Mike's events may be taking longer than expected. Hopefully, he's planned for that, or has other ways to make his numbers. Essentially, I think we're betting on him betting on winning horses in a series of races. Can't wait for each race to finish, and I hope a few finish soon.
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Post by mnkdfann on Mar 15, 2018 21:26:51 GMT -5
I warned the shorts to get out a few months ago ... while they still could. Now the volume has dried up and there is no where to run. I dreamt that Stephen Hawking had a net worth of $20M and had set his will to buy all the MNKD shares that was possible. He felt that it would create a black hole under the shorts and cause a whole new window for teleportation back into this realm. We may be seeing Stephen, Al, and Albert around soon. Yes, I am on a first name basis with them now. Drink enough wine or DOM ... and you will be too! I never met Stephen Hawking, but a friend of mine had tea with him at his university office in Britain many years (decades) ago. Really. His brother was one of Hawking's graduate students. Anyone who tells you that ours is not a small world is lying. Sorry for the off topic post, I couldn't resist.
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Post by mnkdfann on Mar 15, 2018 21:35:38 GMT -5
I just read all of Nate’s post very interesting:-) can’t wait to see all that play out! For some reason I thought Nate had a higher target than $10. NatesNotes Mar 15th, 8:42 am @addiction2money drty130 @ariaangel the mispricing of $MNKD relative to the assets it holds can't go on forever; buy all the way up to $10
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Post by sportsrancho on Mar 15, 2018 21:43:18 GMT -5
I just read all of Nate’s post very interesting:-) can’t wait to see all that play out! For some reason I thought Nate had a higher target than $10. NatesNotes Mar 15th, 8:42 am @addiction2money drty130 @ariaangel the mispricing of $MNKD relative to the assets it holds can't go on forever; buy all the way up to $10 No, huge buy under $5..buy under $10. I believe it’s stated in his newsletter.
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Post by mytakeonit on Mar 15, 2018 21:53:00 GMT -5
The $10 is a buy in limit ... THEN, Nate said that we will be going to places no man has travelled before. Not even Mannkind. Must be a continuation of the dream.
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Post by nylefty on Mar 15, 2018 23:15:52 GMT -5
The $10 is a buy in limit ... THEN, Nate said that we will be going to places no man has travelled before. Not even Mannkind. Must be a continuation of the dream. Of course, Nate said no such thing. Poetic license? Some people might take you literally.
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Post by nylefty on Mar 15, 2018 23:32:40 GMT -5
Nate has listed MNKD as a "Strong Buy" under $5 for quite a while (and a "Buy" under $10).
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Question
Mar 15, 2018 23:35:39 GMT -5
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Post by traderdennis on Mar 15, 2018 23:35:39 GMT -5
Dilution will depress the price and allow shorts to cover at a lower price. Given the vote to authorize more shares, and the daily trading volume, bankruptcy is off the table for a few years at least. So long as a public company can issue more shares, and has enough trading volume to attract investors, bankruptcy is not something to worry about. If the company runs out of shares and can't get authorization for more, or trading volume dries up so that new shares cannot be sold, or the company is unable to refinance or defer a large maturing debt then that is another matter, but none of those are likely in the near term. The open market will not buy an unlimited number of shares. At some time the well will dry up even with an authorization to issue more shares.
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Post by mytakeonit on Mar 15, 2018 23:43:28 GMT -5
Replying to NYLefty -
Yes true ... but, Nate was mentioning short term. My view is that this stock will never stop growing due to technospere. Nate and Michael K are both talking Afrezza and a more near term concept within 3 years ... If I recollect correctly. But wine and dementia kinda plays tricks on my brain. What little left that remains. That's why I said "Must be a continuation of the dream."
As we all know, there is no buy in limit for anything that doesn't have a time frame. As for me, I've always said that I'm not buying any more shares .. and I plan on willing it all to my daughter who can do whatever she wants with it.
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Post by mnkdfann on Mar 16, 2018 0:48:45 GMT -5
Dilution will depress the price and allow shorts to cover at a lower price. Given the vote to authorize more shares, and the daily trading volume, bankruptcy is off the table for a few years at least. So long as a public company can issue more shares, and has enough trading volume to attract investors, bankruptcy is not something to worry about. If the company runs out of shares and can't get authorization for more, or trading volume dries up so that new shares cannot be sold, or the company is unable to refinance or defer a large maturing debt then that is another matter, but none of those are likely in the near term. The open market will not buy an unlimited number of shares. At some time the well will dry up even with an authorization to issue more shares. A company can issue and the market will buy a practically unlimited number of shares, if there is a good story and a clever financier available. DRYS diluted and reverse split several times, enough that it issued the equivalent of 450 billion pre-split shares (I think the number is low, as it ignores later dilution). A single share in October 1, 2017, was (adjusting for the dilution) worth over $1.3 billion! www.motherjones.com/kevin-drum/2017/07/the-bizarre-dryships-story-keeps-getting-more-bizarre/Of course, I do concede the above is a really unusual case.
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