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Post by peppy on May 20, 2018 16:38:09 GMT -5
Barnstormer.... Multiple month scripts already show up in the data as well as my projections. If you look at the retail dollars per script, the number is higher than what a single script sells for. The retail dollars per reported script is currently between $1,200 and $1,300. This is higher than even a titration pack. What is the logical answer as to why? Having followed pharma for a long time, having dealt with Symphony, and having dealy with and consulted to IMS, I can tell you that the delta is because of three month scripts. That being said, with a drug like Afrezza, there are some that use it simply for adjustment. Their 1 script can last 2 or three months. This will show up in slower than desired refills. In the end, when you boil it down to the dollars, it all comes out in the wash. If a person were using a static price for each script and not paying attention to any shifts, they would have a flawed assumption. I track retail sales, gross revenue, net revenue, script counts, assumptions on titration, assumptions on three month use, assumptions on three scripts at a time, etc. I plug in numbers, and if something does not jive I seek out the reason and make the appropriate adjustments. These cross checks keep my modeling accurate because they are checking my work and assumptions from multiple angles.The dynamic in revenue we saw between last year and this year was a dynamic created by new packaging. It will not exist this year, and revenue growth will fall pretty much in line with script growth. The only thing that will shift that is another package change or a price increase. Afrezza is already "expensive", so pricing elasticity is non-existent. If saying that there were 700 scripts instead of 500 because of three month fillers makes someone feel better, than that is quite fine...BUT...They would have to then LOWER the average revenue per scripts. You see, this is an accounting function. For every action there is a reaction. In order to keep it simple, I work in revenue per reported script. Why complicate things when it is not necessary, and when the dollars at the end of the day are exactly the same? I am glad you are here. Let's see what happens now with Afrezza sales. Looking forward the ADA. The STAT study and, Poster presentation; Reduced Hypoglycemia. www.screencast.com/t/y4DmVMc8rowAny idea how much improved hypoglycemia data will affect insurance reimbursement? I know you can see Spencer. www.screencast.com/t/LaLnE2Ruwww.screencast.com/t/e7WjrwwZtwww.screencast.com/t/5gYOpVAKu1www.screencast.com/t/qX97Gjp0QELet's get ready for the turn.
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Post by Deleted on May 20, 2018 17:12:08 GMT -5
peppy....
The insurgence of CGM's will help every treatment get better. The key with treatmenmt is understanding your own set of circumstances. With one product it might be dosing 30 minutes prior to eating, while with another it may be dosing after you start. Tighter control is possible with every product on the market.
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Post by Deleted on May 20, 2018 17:14:12 GMT -5
goy.....
I consider many things. If you disagree, that is quite fine. I am well aware of the market cap.
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Post by Deleted on May 20, 2018 17:22:56 GMT -5
[b What moves have you not been impressed by? “I want to see material progress before I get excited. I have been around way to many companies that can talk a good talk.” Hmmm. Spencer, didn’t you just write a complete article suggesting that Mannkind might be better off selling their number one asset for the prospect of developing a pipeline? Raising money based on a pipeline would surely require “material progress” before getting a lot of people excited, so perhaps the better strategy is to fully capitalize on the real assets they already own. Please write your next article based on the market cap of Afrezza after contemplating this post mnkd.proboards.com/post/148110Mike was going the contract sales force direction....until he wasn't. He was going the television sponsorship route until he wasn't. He was going the direct hire force until he decided to change that up. He was going the tv advertising route, until he wasn't. He was going the guidance route but has missed each time. The bottom line is that Afrezza is losing money. Money that the company can not afford to lose. If the money supply were cut off tomorrow, Afrezza would die off. There is a reason that the company is putting some funds to its pipeline. It needs that plan B to get stronger. Thus far no plan A's have worked for Mike. That is just being blatantly honest. I need not waste time at this jucnture contemplating numbers about Afrezza being the standard of care, because there is almost zero indication that it can get there.
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Post by Deleted on May 20, 2018 17:38:25 GMT -5
sellhighdrinklow - did the label change materially change Afrezza scripts? It didn't. Why do you think the STAT study will?
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Post by uvula on May 20, 2018 17:40:39 GMT -5
I don't follow SA but Spencers comments here sound reasonable. He is giving us insight into how investors think. I don't think he ever claimed to understand the science or medical aspects of afrezza. He is not a diabetes expert. We have an opportunity to educate him and shouldn't chase him away by attacking him.
Update: the mean post I was referring to disappeared.
Update #2: thanks to the magic of quoting posts, the mean post lIves on.
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Post by goyocafe on May 20, 2018 17:56:09 GMT -5
“I want to see material progress before I get excited. I have been around way to many companies that can talk a good talk.” Hmmm. Spencer, didn’t you just write a complete article suggesting that Mannkind might be better off selling their number one asset for the prospect of developing a pipeline? Raising money based on a pipeline would surely require “material progress” before getting a lot of people excited, so perhaps the better strategy is to fully capitalize on the real assets they already own. Please write your next article based on the market cap of Afrezza after contemplating this post mnkd.proboards.com/post/148110Mike was going the contract sales force direction....until he wasn't. He was going the television sponsorship route until he wasn't. He was going the direct hire force until he decided to change that up. He was going the tv advertising route, until he wasn't. He was going the guidance route but has missed each time. The bottom line is that Afrezza is losing money. Money that the company can not afford to lose. If the money supply were cut off tomorrow, Afrezza would die off. There is a reason that the company is putting some funds to its pipeline. It needs that plan B to get stronger. Thus far no plan A's have worked for Mike. That is just being blatantly honest. I need not waste time at this jucnture contemplating numbers about Afrezza being the standard of care, because there is almost zero indication that it can get there. “I need not waste time at this jucnture contemplating numbers about Afrezza being the standard of care, because there is almost zero indication that it can get there.” So I can understand, you just wrote an entire article on the prospect of Mannkind selling Afrezza and reverting back into a development company because there’s a likelihood that it will happen? Otherwise, it would be a waste of your time? I think an objective author ought to be able to put aside personal bias and write a comprehensive article on just the numbers. There’s a much higher likelihood that Mannkind sticks to their current strategy than there is that they revert back to a development company, so why not look at the numbers behind the possibilities in line with that strategy?
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Post by Deleted on May 20, 2018 17:56:33 GMT -5
peppy.... The insurgence of CGM's will help every treatment get better. The key with treatmenmt is understanding your own set of circumstances. With one product it might be dosing 30 minutes prior to eating, while with another it may be dosing after you start. Tighter control is possible with every product on the market. CGMs change the game. Dexcom will be releasing a sensor the size of a nickel with a 14+ day wear time and it won't need to be calibrated off of a capillary finger stick. It will send data directly to a smartphone and subsequently, given Dexcom's relationship with Verily, the data will be able to be seemlessly transmitted to the cloud for analysis. This is all the start of fee for outcomes vs fee for service. Today, if all patients were wearing such a continuous glucose sensor and the data were collected and analyzed for time in range and payments to clinicians were made based on time in range, clinicians would likely see a 60% + drop in reimbursement. "Tighter control is possible with every product on the market", possible yes, probable, not a chance. Patient compliance is very difficult. Afrezza is far superior to the RAAs in terms of easy of use, forgiveness and outcomes. Not even close. Will Afrezza and Mannkind be a commercial success? We should know much more in the next 6-9 mos. When you are David facing Goliath, the odds of success are small but part of achieving success is surviving multiple near death experiences, it goes with the territory. Stay tuned...
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Post by liane on May 20, 2018 18:03:25 GMT -5
I am locking this thread. Our focus on this board should be all topics MNKD etc - not another member. Spencer is welcome here as long as he follows the rules. Those rules apply to everyone . Any new threads started should be titled to reflect the specific MNKD topic - again not addressing a specific member. Remember - No Personal Attacks!!!
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