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Post by mindovermatter on Nov 9, 2015 19:12:20 GMT -5
Wild speculation on my part but maybe it was Hakan's clever way to send a message to Sanofi that Mannkind has another willing partner if Sanofi doesn't pick things up. No, just no. MNKD has the cards, but SNY owns all the chips. Don't be fooled in who has the power right now. SNY doesn't need MNKD. MNKD needs SNY until someone else comes along. SNY wouldn't lose a second of sleep over losing MNKD. But they will lose millions more by keeping them. As I mentioned, Plan B might be starting to take effect if the partnership is at the beginning of the end. |
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Post by mindovermatter on Nov 9, 2015 18:47:20 GMT -5
Chris-C, To be honest with you, preparation has a lot to do with planning. I don't know how many public speaking gigs you've done, but I know I'm a much,much better speaker when I'm knowledgeable about what I'm talking about. I have more confidence. I don't stumble. I have an answer ready because I've already done all the preparation needed to anticipate. I think the biggest problem with Matt/Hakan is that they're either handcuffed in what they can say/do or they just lack the organizational and visionary skills needed to run a billion dollar company. It's really hard to know where to place the blame, but one would think it must fall directly on their shoulders at some point. If SNY isn't doing what they want or expect from them, they need to be proactive and find a better partner. If they realize that no one wants their "blockbuster" drug, they need to then fully invest in the "embarrassment of riches" and quit wasting time, money, and energy on Afrezza. If it's insurance coverage, then get the deals done already. Time is money. I just don't have confidence in these guys that they have what it takes to run this company. Too many holes that have been evident for too many months. Other companies are getting the job done. It's possible. Al seems to have confidence in Hakan. What does that tell you? |
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Post by mindovermatter on Nov 9, 2015 18:32:41 GMT -5
Hakan opened his part begging for a partner - they will have a field day with that one. aybe it was Hakan's clever way to send a message to Sanofi that Mannkind has another willing partner if Sanofi doesn't pick things up. |
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Post by mindovermatter on Nov 9, 2015 18:27:37 GMT -5
I mentioned in my first post here that I know someone who is familiar with the pharma world and doing deals. I listened to the call and Hakan, to my recollection, did not say a new TS deal was in the works. What he said is that they are in negotiations. Negotiations in pharma speak doesn't mean a deal is imminent. On the contrary, pharmaceutical companies are always in "negotiations" with numerous companies. They will look at hundreds if not thousands of deals a year and if lucky, might do one. All of those are "negotiations." So I would tell everyone to temper their expectations about a new technosphere deal because we have heard Hakan and, I think, Matt discuss this over the last 2 calls and yet we have heard nothing new. Why? Because those "negotiations" are just informal talk but not serious discussions about forming a partnership. It could also be that the company had a pending deal and the other side backed out. That happens often especially if the other company gets the sense that Mannkind is in desperate straits, which from today's call sounds like they are. Any company that senses this will use that to get a better deal for them. What ever the issues are, today's conference call was not a confidence booster and showed that Mannkind has some serious problems. And you can bet that the analysts are going to reiterate their sell recs and even point out that Mannkind might not make it through 2016 if Afrezza doesn't start to sell. I would not be surprised to see MNKD hit the lows we saw back in 2012. I know some of you are very loyal to Al and the company and you'll see what you want to see but any student of business knows that Mannkind has put itself in a very precarious situation at this point in time. We all better hope that Hakan's hope of better Afrezza sales happens sooner rather than later.
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Post by mindovermatter on Nov 9, 2015 7:46:56 GMT -5
Any chance this is all priced in? With several firms with a $1 price target, I'd say no. The 10Q is not pretty. |
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Post by mindovermatter on Nov 6, 2015 12:37:28 GMT -5
We could use a positive article. Let's hope SA publishes it. They seem to have no problem publishing neg articles all the time. With all due respect, I am not sure what a positive article would do. What was really needed and would have been an absolute upper cut to those trying to destroy Mannkind would have been Sanofi verbally stating their sticking with Afrezza, believe in it and will continue to support it. The ppt slide was evidence of this but it would have been more powerful if the CEO actually verbally stated it. That didn't happen and that's a shame. |
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Post by mindovermatter on Nov 4, 2015 9:38:46 GMT -5
Smells of opportunity: (from the downgrade note) "Physicians are not too concerned about Afrezza safety/efficacy and t he majority are willing to prescribe Afrezza upon patient request."
"However, patient interest (or awareness) remains low and Afrezza prescriptions appear to get lost due to payer hurdles." - DTC has now started, and - formulary placement is improving as we are now past the 6+ months minimum prior to being able to be put for discussion at Pharmacy and Therapeutics (P&T) Committees. Further, real-life patient data is coming in from early users showing Afrezza impact on their diabetes and their lives... I just wanted to chime in to ask the question that the analyst didn't of the doctors surveyed.
"Why are you waiting for the patients to request it and not you upfront suggesting to your patients that Afrezza might help them?"
I am not the smartest person but I find this omission very puzzling because it's the logical follow up question to ask. |
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Post by mindovermatter on Oct 10, 2015 12:50:01 GMT -5
Like many, I have been a reader of the board and not one to post. This will be my only post here but I wanted to relay a conversation I had with someone familiar with biotech sector as she is an MD, PhD and MBA who now is doing research at the University setting. She has worked with another biotech during a drug launch and has experience while a deal with a major pharma was being negotiated. She wasn't a key figure but has first hand experience with how the process goes.
She is aware of Mannkind and with Afrezza. This is her opinion on what she thinks is happening. Most is what many of you already know.
- Mannkind and Sanofi knew full well that the roll out of Afrezza was going to take time and would be a slow roll out. She doesn't follow the company close enough to know that its been slower than expected per Mannkind's admission.
- Mannkind most likely chose Sanofi because Sanofi not only assured them they would be there for the long haul but that they had the resources to weather the storm. Evidence of that is clearly the $175 Million loan facility -i told her about the loan facility- knowing that Afrezza wouldn't move quickly at first and wouldn't for at least a few years. That in itself should be proof that Sanofi isn't going to abandon the drug anytime soon assuming the drug showed good results and that initial patient retention was strong.
- She doesn't know if Afrezza will be successful but she does know that it's a revolutionary drug and a paradigm shift from current treatment. Because of this, doctors and insurance companies will rightfully be slow to adopt so don't expect to see any huge gains in prescriptions until end of 2016 at the earliest by her account. She told that new drugs typically take a few years for insurance and especially doctors to get comfortable with. Doctors are bombarded with new treatments and that change is hard for them especially if they have patients doing well on current treatments.
-Afrezza is challenging already existing billion dollar franchises. As she stated, this is a 12 round fight and Afrezza is not going to knock out other insulins in the 1st 2nd or even 8th round. Odds are not in Afrezza's favor right now. She stated that it doesn't mean Afrezza is doomed but you need an 800 lb guerilla (Sanofi) to be in the ring with you. Again, why Mannkind partnered with Sanofi. Interesting, she also opined that she thought Sanofi was always the partner in the shadows as other pharmas with existing fast acting insulin would have no interest in Afrezza as it would cannibalize their existing cash cows.
-Afrezza would be hampered by its label. Again, something many of you already know. Doctors who have to take a lot of time to write a prescription is a recipe for disaster and Afrezza isn't the easiest script to write due to the lung function requirement. It's not just the FEV1 test but that she believes many doctors will have a hard time without knowing the long term consequences of inhaling insulin. I asked her her belief and she believes it is safe and that the FDA, as is the case, is erring on the side of safety due to past safety concerns/scandals it has endured. She said in the end it hurts patients because what is never written is that there were many more that were helped by a drug than the few who were hurt by it. No drug is going to be 100% safe and without any side effects.
-Metformin. Cheap and many doctors, like muscle memory, go to it for first line of therapy in type 2. Hard to compete with a cheap pill.
-She believes that Afrezza will ultimately have more success outside the United States because of how medicine is dispensed in socialized health. But that will impact how successful Afrezza is revenue wise. If Sanofi believes Afrezza can become a monopoly in the fast acting parandial insulin market by displacing needle based insulin, better to be a monopoly with lower margins than having nothing at all. She believes that Health ministries could make Afrezza the insulin of choice assuming they see the benefits of Afrezza with increased compliance that lowers over all cost of care for diabetics. If the data supports what we are initially seeing, Sanofi has the ability politically to get health ministries to make the move to Afrezza as the first line of care. In regards to the US, she isn't so sure Afrezza will become a leader due to how drugs are marketed and sold here. She said it will ultimately come down to whether or not Doctors become comfortable prescribing an insulin that is absorbed in the lungs after decades of being comfortable with needle based delivery.
My apologies for being long winded. Her take away is that Afrezza is going to take time to get an audience. Outside of a buyout, don't expect much from the stock. It's a marathon and not a sprint.
As for me, I own shares and have family members who are diabetics thus explaining my interest in the stock. And like many of you, I am underwater.
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