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Post by mnkdfann on Aug 25, 2020 21:19:50 GMT -5
So mannkind needs to maintain 40m in the bank to borrow now? Not how I read it. If they have $40 M unrestricted cash available, then whatever Afrezza sales they post, even if under the minimum cap, does not constituie a breach of the terms and they can borrow as if they meet the terms. Since they already have that amount and more, this means that even if they will be under in sales due to the China Virus, they can continue to borrow aa needed. This is good in my opinion. For those like myself who are too lazy too look it up right this minute, how much in the way of unrestricted cash does Mannkind have available?
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Post by mnkdfann on Aug 21, 2020 0:43:01 GMT -5
milled.com/onedrop/we-have-exciting-news-BhT_dZ6O7QBXORT7Welcome to the new One Drop We’ve been hard at work on new, game-changing features to help people with diabetes and other chronic conditions improve their health and transform their lives. More health conditions. More content. More data. A more personalized experience. And so much more to come. Join One Drop CEO and founder, Jeff Dachis, for the virtual reveal. Tune in to One Drop’s YouTube channel tomorrow at 4 p.m. ET. Anybody know what the big "reveal" was? youtu.be/hQQDtiAnDQM
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Post by mnkdfann on Aug 19, 2020 15:58:36 GMT -5
The option volume is way up today also. I hold the Jan 2021’s @ $2.50 and $3. I’m underwater on both and thought they would expire worthless but maybe there is hope yet. I’ve got the Jan 2021 5’s. Figure if the short position is unwound by end of year we’ll be at $10 and I’ll roll the cash into more shares. But, alas, probably expire worthless. I just can’t quit the leverage. My broker doesn't list $5 Jan 2021 calls, nor does Yahoo Finance. At least not with symbol MNKD. Do yours have a different symbol?
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Post by mnkdfann on Aug 19, 2020 13:50:14 GMT -5
MNKD has no options past Feb 21, 2021 that I can see. Lack of Leaps (lol) has been a topic of discussion here before. I don't know if there was a definitive reason as to why. IIRC, there is a volume requirement (for the options traded in some time frame for new LEAPS to be issued) and Mannkind's wasn't high enough. When I looked several months back, I found many companies larger and more profitable than Mannkind that also had no LEAPS, for (presumably) the same reason.
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Post by mnkdfann on Aug 17, 2020 23:09:44 GMT -5
False alarm. Checked number again and it is at 24.9%. Not sure why it shot up to 31.5%. Now aren't you happy matt pointed out that it is a meaningless number without more information?
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PPS
Aug 16, 2020 16:26:54 GMT -5
Post by mnkdfann on Aug 16, 2020 16:26:54 GMT -5
For the most part (unless warrants are about to expire or something), I tend not to agree about the share price being held at a level. At least not if you look at it for more than a day or two at a time. The share price has a beta of over 2, so in fact it is more than twice as volatile as the overall market. And just looking at the share price of the past over the past few weeks or months, it is clear that the share price moves around quite a bit. In just the past 10 days, it traded between 1.55 and 1.85.
Considering that there is never (or very rarely) any ground-shaking news to move the share price, why would we expect it to move around even more than it already does?
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Post by mnkdfann on Aug 15, 2020 14:21:45 GMT -5
Veins of gold they may be, but I'm not convinced this study / article will be much of a game changer.
Some comments / observations about the paper ...
I wonder what 'personal reasons' people had for discontinuing use of TI?
"The ITT population included 61 subjects in the TI arm and 65 subjects in the LIS arm ... More subjects discontinued in TI group than in the LIS group (n=13 vs. 5, Supplementary Table 1). There were increased discontinuations due to respiratory TEAEs (n=4 vs. 0 in comparator) related to cough that resolved upon discontinuation of study drug. Additionally, more subjects discontinued the study in the TI arm due to withdrawal of consent or “other” (n=7 vs. 2), most often citing personal reasons."
Also:
"Cough was the most common side effect reported in the TI group with approximately 48% of participants reporting a cough at any point during study follow-up (Supplementary Table 3). Cough was described as intermittent and generally occurred within 10 minutes of dosing."
The article contains this interesting historical blurb ('rabbit unit', so cute):
"Some of the concern over the apparent difference in the unit-dose effect arises from confusion between the definition of an insulin unit, both in terms of clinical “effect” and unit “amount.” When insulin was first developed by extraction techniques, each batch was tested for clinical comparability and the unit of insulin (using the so-called “rabbit unit”) was defined as “the amount of insulin which is capable of lowering the blood sugar to the convulsive level within three hours, in rabbits of approximately 2 kg weight from which food has been withheld for 24 hours.” Note that the insulin in the biopotency test was administered by subcutaneous injection, binding the definition to this specific route of administration. As the preparations of insulin have become purer, the definition of a unit has also changed. Both the international and USP units of insulin are now defined in terms of amount (0.0347 mg insulin pure, or 6 nmol), and not by clinical effect. The relationship between amount and effect still generally holds for subcutaneous insulin, but this relationship does not necessarily hold when insulin is administered by other routes."
Also interesting (at least to me) that the authors are supported by nearly every Pharma under the sun (but I suppose that may be par for the course in medicine):
"JBM has received speaker fees from Aegerion, Dexcom, and Janssen; research funding from Dexcom, Medtronic, and Novo Nordisk; and served as a consultant or advisor for Aegerion, Bayer, Boehringer Ingelheim, Dexcom, Eli Lilly, Metavant, Novo Nordisk, and Valeritas. DW has received speaker honoraria or clinical research funding from Eli Lilly, Janssen, Novo Nordisk, Sanofi-Aventis, and Gan Lee and has served on an advisory board for AstraZeneca. MG and MCJ are full-time employees of MannKind Corporation. DMK is a full-time employee of MannKind Corporation and a minor stockholder of Eli Lilly and Co. BJH is a consultant for MannKind Corporation and a minor stock older of Eli Lilly and Co."
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Post by mnkdfann on Aug 10, 2020 15:15:32 GMT -5
So this is a promo item from some years ago, that a fool is selling on craigslist for $2?
Okay ...
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Post by mnkdfann on Aug 3, 2020 18:45:40 GMT -5
See there are 100s of millions of people in the US with diabetes. We need 50,000 patients regularly using afrezza. For now, thats the short term goal. There are people who buy Tesla worth 100s of thousands of dollars. Insurance coverage may be an issue but we should have a population set who can afford afrezza. There is no way afrezza will be a market leader quickly. Majority of people will not get over the safety hurdle so this has to be targeted towards type 1 mainly (or type 2 with very less control) for whom the benefits outweighs the perceived risks. This has to be a slow ramp up with all the focus, energy and capital on retaining patients who try afrezza. Hand out free samples, get people to try and follow up with each and everyone of them to make sure they have a great experience with the drug. I have no connections with Vdex and don’t understand all that they do but if their focus is around patients having great experience with the drug, then that’s what we need to do. 100s of millions? You may want to double check your numbers there. Especially if your model depends on there being that large a potential user base.
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Post by mnkdfann on Aug 3, 2020 17:52:32 GMT -5
Someone was talking about EXAS on MNKD ST I own the stock for the long haul. This is was they just did... . “Reduction of base pay for our chief executive officer to effectively zero, elimination of the Board of Directors annual cash retainer, reducing base salaries for our executive team, and reducing the quarterly sales commissions. We implemented a workforce reduction, involuntary furloughs, work schedule reductions, as well as a voluntary furlough program. Additionally, we reduced investments in marketing and other promotional activities, paused certain clinical trial activities, reduced travel and professional services, and delayed or terminated certain capital projects. We also saw a reduction in certain volume based cost of goods sold expenses consistent with the reduction in revenue.” Mannkind could do some cost savings no doubt, but I think it is sort of apples and oranges comparing EXAS to MNKD. From the 10-Q, it is clear EXAS did this as a result of COVID-19. Also, according to what I see online, the CEO Kevin T. Conroy there made $18,716,543 in total compensation of which only $792,169 was received as a salary (base pay) in 2019. I suspect he'll get many millions again in 2020, even with his base pay cut to zero. Preserve Financial Strength In order to minimize the adverse impacts to our business and operations anticipated during 2020 due to the COVID-19 pandemic, we initiated proactive measures to achieve cost savings. Actions we have taken include the reduction of base pay for our chief executive officer to effectively zero, elimination of the Board of Directors annual cash retainer, reducing base salaries for our executive team, and reducing the quarterly sales commissions. We implemented a workforce reduction, involuntary furloughs, work schedule reductions, as well as a voluntary furlough program. Additionally, we reduced investments in marketing and other promotional activities, paused certain clinical trial activities, reduced travel and professional services, and delayed or terminated certain capital projects. We also saw a reduction in certain volume based cost of goods sold expenses consistent with the reduction in revenue. These actions are expected to contribute to significant cost savings in 2020.
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Post by mnkdfann on Aug 2, 2020 22:17:02 GMT -5
KODK just popped for saying they are going to manufacture pharma chemicals in the USA. Since MNKD has the rights to make the pfizer insulin, they should say they are going to build a insulin plant in the US and get in on that action. Maybe get some financing to actually build the plant from the Trump as well. KODK didn't pop because of what it said it was going to do, it popped because it was given a sweetheart handout from the government. KODK went from penny stock to $30+ practically overnight (since fallen a bit) as a result. A few insiders gained millions. Kodak's Executive Chairman gained millions on options that were granted just one day before the handout was announced! Nothing to see here. Just saying. www.cnbc.com/2020/08/01/eastman-kodaks-top-executive-reportedly-got-trump-deal-windfall-on-an-understanding.htmlpopular.info/p/what-happened-before-kodaks-moment
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Post by mnkdfann on Jul 30, 2020 10:31:28 GMT -5
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Post by mnkdfann on Jul 27, 2020 18:13:22 GMT -5
That doc's apparent success is not as clear cut as he makes it (but he is a former politician, so truth and accuracy and science may not be his main concerns). Not going to bother posting links, people can google for themselves. Still, it would be nice if he really has something.
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Post by mnkdfann on Jul 21, 2020 16:15:26 GMT -5
FWIW, I identified a seasonal trend in the scripts thread: mnkd.proboards.com/post/208437If scripts are rolling over, well, they do seem to do that most June / July periods. Last year's decline (20%) was worse than this year's (16.3%).
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Post by mnkdfann on Jul 1, 2020 18:12:07 GMT -5
$4 a share at .13 ... is this assuming 1:1 P/E ratio or the average 20:1 to 30:1 you usually see with BP stocks? The last time I checked (and that was a few years ago), the average P/E ratio on BP was 40-ish and as high as 70-ish in a few not average instances. The last time I checked the average P/E on NASDAQ listed equities, the ratio was 27-ish. Since BP was higher than the exchange average, I used a relatively conservative P/E ratio of 30 as an example. 13 cents times 30 is $3.99 per share. Assuming profit and access to reasonable debt financing, then Mannkind can invest in expanding sales of Rx based on all of the things I listed above. If Mannkind can manage even a modest proportion of the prandial insulin market, the EPS should be significantly better than 13 cents a share. Add TreT, maybe Tadalafil, maybe Sumatriptan, and little old Mannkind might manage a respectable stock price. According to data online, as of March 2015, the overall drugs sector had an average P/E ratio of about 24.10. According to Yahoo Finance, currently (as of today) Eli Lilly, Merck, Sanofi, UTHR, have PEs of, respectively, about 27, 19, 26, 10. So using a PE of 30 is arguably not conservative at all. It may be a little over optimistic. Of course some BP firms have much higher PEs. But (from what I've read), those are usually atypical and more often or not viewed as bubbles. And Mnkd might hit over $100 even with negative earnings, if it only could capture the imagine of people the way, say, NVAX, did. I won't say that will never happen. Markets are crazy.
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