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Post by saxcmann on Jul 7, 2017 14:32:12 GMT -5
"One could argue that MNKD has had qualified and experienced people around them for many many years. That certainly didn't help the company in achieving success post FDA approval. Al Mann was a visionary and was successful by any standard, but he too failed to make Afrezza's potential success a reality. Matt devoted many years to MNKD and was just as qualified as Mike to be CEO. Frankly, I'm waiting for Mike Castagna to deliver on sales or meaningful improvements as CEO. I have been extremely unimpressed with his performance to date. Drive and passion, two attributes that he displays admirably, are not tools to measure success. Only results do that." With all due respect to Al, Matt, and Hakan and what they were able to accomplish, they did not have the skill set to market Afrezza and make it commercial. Al recognized that fact, hence the partnership with Sanofi. Matt did a great job keeping the company alive and hiring someone like Mike, but he is a finance guy and not a pharma marketer. Hakan is a scientist, not a marketer. As we have learned the hard way, launching a new drug, particularly one with mass market potential is highly complex, particularly considering all the hurdles involved - the FDA for label approval/change, endocrinologists, general practitioners, and the myriad of insurance companies and government agencies (e.g. Medicare). Marketing to those constituencies requires experience with all of them as well as a keen knowledge of and experience in direct to consumer pharma marketing. And just as Mike would likely not make a great finance guy or scientist, neither would Matt nor Hakan make great general managers in pharma marketing. I say this as someone with prior experience as a senior marketing manager in consumer products as well as a consultant to Fortune 500 companies. Despite that experience in market strategy, I would be woefully ill-equipped to launch a pharma brand like Afrezza. So I have been willing to give Mike a chance. But as we all know the clock has been and is ticking. I suppose I should have sold a while ago, but I didn't so at this point I have little choice but to let this ride out and see what happens - perhaps a miracle Exactly! Great Post! Same boat probably like many here...
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Post by saxcmann on Jul 7, 2017 12:01:29 GMT -5
two ways of thinking...by November new ultra label and scripts increasing above 500 weekly and pps moves above $3 and mnkd gets no partner deal and dilutes shareholders as we get screwed again. (most likely scenario in my opinion) Other bet is MC get additional funding through partnership deal(s) by November with ultra label and scripts increasing. shorts will be squeezed if upfront cash deal extends runway 18-24 months or deal is with big pharma name. what is your bet? Going from 250 to 325+ in scripts has lowered the stock price off the top of my head 20%. 500 weekly is simply not going to be enough and will likely lower the price again, not have it go up to $3. I don't think you are wrong that a label change could be a catalyst. I am shouting at my lungs saying not doing anything will be the death of the company by November. 2500 weekly scripts getting cutting the cash burn rate in half might attract an investor for a massive dillutive financing. You are correct, I should not attempt to guess mnkd stock price with shorts controlling things. Predicting future stock price is silly with 25 million shorts, 33+ days of naked shorting and borrow rates at all time highs 85%...who knows how things unfold! My bad, I stand corrected. My 500 scripts remark was hypothetical but if scripts trend continue to rise (even as slow as we are) WS will begin to take note way before 2500, imo. I still think MC gives us positive financial news before November.
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Post by saxcmann on Jul 7, 2017 11:28:00 GMT -5
afrezza retention is comparable to humolog and novolog now... Can you show a chart with similar refill rates for afrezza humolog and novlog? I don't believe that statement unless I can see some metrics. Just going off what my endo friend told me.
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Post by saxcmann on Jul 7, 2017 9:40:23 GMT -5
two ways of thinking...by November new ultra label and scripts increasing above 500 weekly and pps moves above $3 and mnkd gets no partner deal and dilutes shareholders as we get screwed again. (most likely scenario in my opinion) Other bet is MC get additional funding through partnership deal(s) by November with ultra label and scripts increasing. shorts will be squeezed if upfront cash deal extends runway 18-24 months or deal is with big pharma name. what is your bet? Neither. I still think we haven't cracked the case for keeping patients. Last number show improvements, but lacking. Patience for patients will be my bet. afrezza retention is comparable to humolog and novolog now...
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Post by saxcmann on Jul 7, 2017 8:56:06 GMT -5
"Don't forget to add what the DTC budget" Personally, I believe MNKD made a conscious decision NOT to run a big DTC campaign on TV and I for one believe that was a wise choice. I believe we have just figured out a somewhat reliable way to get new patients, we are still figuring out how to keep patients. We are racing against cash burn but every prescription written is a little bit of longer run way. We simply cannot gamble on ONE hit and miss campaign. I can understand the thinking, but the status quo is death by a 1000 cuts and the runway will only extend so far into November. two ways of thinking...by November new ultra label and scripts increasing above 500 weekly and pps moves above $3 and mnkd gets no partner deal and dilutes shareholders as we get screwed again. (most likely scenario in my opinion) Other bet is MC get additional funding through partnership deal(s) by November with ultra label and scripts increasing. shorts will be squeezed if upfront cash deal extends runway 18-24 months or deal is with big pharma name. what is your bet?
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Post by saxcmann on Jun 20, 2017 12:47:39 GMT -5
due to the change of control contract. Matt was Mann's front man and served Mann as CEO. Now we all know that Matt stepped down and Mike replaced him a ~ a month ago. It is Interesting to note that 6/27 is the 3 year anniversary of Afrezza's approval and 7/28 is the 13 year anniversary of MNKD's IPO. Now if you plug in Matt's termination date of 7/31 you have an issue to address. If 7/31 comes and goes with no change of control than Matt kisses his "golden hand shake" goodbye and leaves a few $$Million on the table. In order for Matt to participate in the change of control contract he has be be employed with MNKD when that " is exercised" ---if he is gone before the CofC contract is enacted, it would be null and void for him. Now, will Matt leave the big $$ on the table or is the table set to insure he departs well taken care of? Seems rather simple does it not? So you're suggesting that the Board of Directors will somehow convince the shareholders to sell the company before 7/31 in order to provide the CEO that it fired with millions of dollars. Seriously? He wasn't fired. It was planned. I'm not defending Mikes post just saying what I know. It was a planned change of control.
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Post by saxcmann on Jun 19, 2017 18:12:59 GMT -5
Agree Sports, mnkd ain't selling anytime soon. shorts think more dilution coming soon. Longs think overseas deal is close for much needed cash. Updated ultra label coming end of September. dtc commercials coming mid July. scripts should start increasing much faster. Brazil deal had no cash and not approved yet. dilution at the current pps would be devastating. shorts know this. We need those shipments to be true! What happens next is crucial in my opinion... I think afrezza is a fine insulin. It keeps blood glucose in range. crazy..... I would have thought that is what patients want. Physicians I would think would want the best for the diabetic as well.
Invokana covefefe.
slowly they are trying it. ultra label will help as well. need more promotion from top endos and continued endo talks. it'll get there, but slow. I have a close friend type 1 is close to trying it. I've been sending videos. he'll push his endo to try next appt.
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Post by saxcmann on Jun 19, 2017 17:06:43 GMT -5
It's real obvious to me Mike is interested in turning the company around not selling it. The plan IMO is to re-do the brand. Prove we can take market share, and then down the road entertain offers. Let's enjoy the ride up:-). If they sell it now we won't get what Al invisioned or what we deserve. Agree Sports, mnkd ain't selling anytime soon. shorts think more dilution coming soon. Longs think overseas deal is close for much needed cash. Updated ultra label coming end of September. dtc commercials coming mid July. scripts should start increasing much faster. Brazil deal had no cash and not approved yet. dilution at the current pps would be devastating. shorts know this. We need those shipments to be true! What happens next is crucial in my opinion...
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Volume too
Jun 17, 2017 18:08:29 GMT -5
via mobile
Post by saxcmann on Jun 17, 2017 18:08:29 GMT -5
Dilution is an issue. There are a lot of shorts waiting for it. - Will DTC work? Depends what you expect DTC to deliver. I am deeply unconvinced personally that it will trigger a sharp rise in script since I see it as easy for a doctor to talk the patient around. What it will do is raise awareness and visibility which will help in the long run. - International partnership bringing in new revenue soon? Not going to happen to any significant extent. Afrezza would have to be competitively priced and those numbers are a fraction of the US. Couple that with needing to build up the market, and getting doctors on-board. New revenue - yes, soon - no. - One Drop delivering Afrezza direct to PWD bypassing doctor. That requires a change in the law or the classification of Afrezza. Neither of those is going to happen. What I expect to happen is a repeat of the last Deerfield settlement with the debt settled part in cash and part in stock. Some dilution, some cash preservation. . Age. With all the new hires the new show one drop. we know UAE is in play Mike not appearing worried I give dilution about a 5% chance at this point. We have turned the corner How can you say that gambler? still no cash to extend runway. we haven't turned the corner yet. not until we figure out cash. why are shorts paying so much interest? They know, dilution coming? MC has hinted about cash runway for 18-24 months but books say otherwise. until cash figured out I'm nervous. my guess is 80% chance of more dilution. why else 25 million shorts and big interest rate???
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Post by saxcmann on Jun 16, 2017 17:50:31 GMT -5
Still not good enough. We need considerably faster growth. I was looking for 1500-2000 scripts by September. I want MannKind to be profitable by the end of next year. *No one should be cheering yet I expect dilution this year, if it's the last time EVER maybe we can dig ourselves out of this hole. l agree with everything you said besides the dilution part. I pray you're wrong and Mike finds another way to increase runway for 18-24 months...partner or international deal(s), etc. You could be right and shorts win again. 😠
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Post by saxcmann on Jun 13, 2017 10:03:27 GMT -5
Afrezza is commercially viable in the US but they need big Pharma to promote drug...at some point theyll need bp for blockbuster sales. Promotion from leading endos is a must for success. They also need bp cash and sales force to spread understanding of dosing . . . All true, but it is not obvious that there is enough economic incentive for a big pharma to want to play the game. Not all pharmas have a sales force that can effectively detail endos, indeed it may be a very short list consisting of Lilly, Novo, and Sanofi. If a sales force is pushing Afrezza, they are not pushing other drugs in the portfolio and every unit of Afrezza sold costs the partner lost profits on the insulin product prescribed now. When all is considered, taking on Afrezza may be a net losing proposition for Lilly or Novo. Part of the problem with Sanofi is that they tried to keep pricing high, and that might have had a lot to do with the economic dynamics I just described. While cannibalizing your own product before somebody else does it for you is often a good idea, it may not be a good idea if you only stand to reap 65% of the net profits from the new line. I don't think it was Sanofi being stupid; they knew Lantus was hitting the patent cliff and were looking to protect their margins. I wouldn't expect Lilly or Novo to behave any differently. All valid points Matt. Agree mannkind has it's hands full. Its not going to be easy in US. Maybe that's why Mike is deciding to focus on international partner(s) now. As sales improve slowly with label change in US, he'll hit international markets at the same time. Possibly getting enough funding this way to increase US runway...
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Post by saxcmann on Jun 13, 2017 8:44:40 GMT -5
here is the truth... bp is heavily entrenched in diabetes market/endos for years. Afrezza is commercially viable in the US but they need big Pharma to promote drug...at some point theyll need bp for blockbuster sales. Promotion from leading endos is a must for success. They also need bp cash and sales force to spread understanding of dosing along with strong dtc advertising. mnkd is moving in the right direction but things will move slow. Label change coming end of sept and better trials will improve sales. Mike says they have enough cash to make this happen. At this point I gotta believe him.
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Video ASM
Jun 13, 2017 8:26:29 GMT -5
via mobile
Post by saxcmann on Jun 13, 2017 8:26:29 GMT -5
Assuming Sanofi had 400 reps detailing Afrezza, whereas Mannkind has approx. 85 reps detailing Afrezza (per compound26), then:- At it's new script peak (per Symphony) on 9/25/15, Sanofi's 400 reps sold 394 new scripts or roughly 1 new script per rep, per week. - At that rate per week, Mannkind's salesforce would need to sell 86 new scripts per week to equal Sanofi's best week. - Since Mannkind actually sold 121 new scripts the most recent week ending 6/2 (not it's high), it's 85 person sales force sold 1.4 scripts per week, a 40% greater rate than Sanofi's best. - If Mannkind had Sanofi's 400 reps, it would currently be selling 560 new scripts per week (400 Sanofi equivalent reps x 1.4 scripts per week). Bottom line - assuming the above rep numbers are close to being correct, then Mannkind is doing a significantly better job at selling Afrezza than Sanofi at it's peak. - This still doesn't justify the number of new scripts per, but it does show that Mannkind's marketing to date is having some positive effect, and that more reps and more advertising should generate even greater sales (duh!). Feel free to poke holes in any or all of this. Clearly the analysis rests on the assumed number of reps at each company and particularly those at Sanofi. In previous discussions of the effectiveness of the different sales forces, IIRC, some have pointed out that the Sanofi sales people were (probably) representing a number of different Sanofi drugs and only devoting a portion of their time and doctor visits to Afrezza. So maybe only, say, 25% of their time / effort was tied to Afrezza. In which case 400 Sanofi reps should really be considered as 100. Whereas Mannkind sales people are 100% about Afrezza. sny reps would only bring up if asked by docs or already interested. sny had conflict of interest with own drugs and sales commissions. so what percent is that mnkdfann?
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Video ASM
Jun 12, 2017 9:37:02 GMT -5
via mobile
Post by saxcmann on Jun 12, 2017 9:37:02 GMT -5
I'm all in with Damon Dash. This product will revolutionize diabetes management as we know it. Did you Google Damon Dash..... not so popular these days.... and broke. Just googled, negative 2 million. Wow.
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Post by saxcmann on Jun 11, 2017 15:16:03 GMT -5
Title of post is misleading in my opinion. Mike says China and India are great target markets for diabetes. He didn't say they are next in article? The article is very good and positive tho. My 2 cents...
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