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Post by dreamboatcruise on May 12, 2018 15:48:53 GMT -5
Without going back and reading SO articles I haven't yet, what is his overall view of MNKD...
1) Afrezza is not a good product and has no significant commercial opportunity 2) Afrezza can succeed but the company isn't in the financial shape to commercialize it properly and there is real risk of bankruptcy before break even (and perhaps Afrezza succeeds after being sold off or bought out of BK). The stock is currently a real gamble. 3) MNKD seems capable of being successful with Afrezza in the long run, but tough road ahead and prospect of further dilution means the stock should only be bought now by those with high risk tolerance and willingness to weather potential declines from here. Even moderately conservative investors might be wiser to wait until finances are on solid footing as a better entry point to avoid the roller coaster and instead ride a sustained rise over years of Afrezza growth. 4) Little downside risk from here so great time for anyone to buy. (I'm assuming that's not SO but throwing it in for completeness)
Or is his overall view better categorized in some other way.
BTW... I was down nearly to 2 a year ago. I'm now at a little above 3... and trending up.
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Post by dreamboatcruise on May 12, 2018 14:16:40 GMT -5
I know a link to this article has appeared in the past but I thought it might be of interest now with the upcoming release of STAT results and the recent discussion of A1c vs TIR with regard to clinicians and payers. In diatribe.org/cgm-and-time-range-what-do-diabetes-experts-think-about-goals Dr. Roy Beck says... "It is important to keep in mind that the population average A1c in people with type 1 diabetes is approximately 8% or higher, and their time-in-range is likely 40%-50%. A goal of 70% time-in-range, or even 60%, is likely unrealistic without drastic changes in their diabetes management approach."One person's opinion but definitely seems to be saying the type of TIR we've seen in social media with Afrezza would require lifestyle changes that those on RAAs would find difficult to do. This seems to refute assertions that high TIR (as high as we've seen with several Afrezza users) is simple to achieve with stacked RAA dosing. So question is whether a non self selected group (STAT Afrezza cohort) achieves results that according to this doctor would be in practice "unrealistic" with traditional therapies. And an interesting editor observation: "Editor’s Note: We had not realized this A1c/time-in-range relationship, and Dr. Roy Beck told us future publications may explore this issue in further depth. Although we talk a lot about A1c not being “everything,” it is a very accepted metric by regulators, healthcare providers, and payers. Knowing the relationship between time-in-range and A1c could be very helpful for getting time-in-range more accepted as an endpoint, especially for the FDA. Time-in-range data can also be gathered in shorter studies (e.g., two weeks), while A1c endpoints take at least three months. Plus, knowing more about time-in-range and CGM patterns at various times of day is a much more actionable way to improve A1c, in our view."
Attitudes are changing with regard to importance of TIR... and the closely linked issue of post prandial hyperglycemia, with studies such as the following one looking at the link between hyperglycemia excursions and cardiovascular disease. onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/full/10.1111/jdi.12610I'm not thinking the "beyond A1c" transition occurs overnight, it will not, but there is certainly an opportunity to leverage STAT results if they mirror (or come reasonably close) to what we've seen over the past couple of years. I think many doctors intuitively understand the importance of TIR, and with CGMs the data to support that intuition will start rolling in.
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Post by dreamboatcruise on May 12, 2018 13:06:06 GMT -5
The India deal is a distributorship not an equity acquisition. The first milestone was signing of the deal. At this point we do not know what the other milestones are nor do we know if there are guaranteed quarterly sales quotas. I for one think afrezza is a distributive technology. What we have learned over 3 years is the FUD was FUD and when properly dosed afrezza has exceeded my expectations and they were pretty high. Mike said during the call afrezza being the standard of care. Whats that worth in the T2 market? Companies like Merck are spending a lot of money playing around with AWS and Alexa. How about something which can actually address the root cause in a safe way - the body not having enough insulin for its needs? www.merck.com/about/featured-stories/merck-amazon.htmlI was about 2 rows behind the guy representing the Chinese company and 3 years later I would still laugh at the offer with the potential sitting in front of us with the Mike/Dave team. Dilution in that three years, if everything is counted including warrants, debt conversion rights, etc. has basically equaled that 51% and MNKD got (will get) far, far less than $500M. So you may have laughed at it, but if one is objective it looks pretty darn good in hindsight. Yes, it was giving up control, but what that would have meant one can never know... perhaps we would have gotten Mike on board even sooner.
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Post by dreamboatcruise on May 12, 2018 12:53:15 GMT -5
Fyi - in response to both an earlier post about not wanting to miss an increase in loan rate... as well as the current low rate 1. You should try to set a minimum rate to lend your shares with your broker - mine is 40pct - I wish all retail would in unison leverage their position in this regard. 2. Over ladt 3 years I definitely have observed an apparent tendency or likely correlation between rising or surging sp and rising loan rate - they are in my opinion generally reflective of the other - having initially held my position at wells trade, I believe their margin req for an equity like mnkd is tied into the deposits they recieve from through lending programs. 3. I do not recall the rate ever being this low and also find it curious. It is definitely lower at Schwab than I've ever seen in the 2 - 3 years I've been in the loan program.
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Post by dreamboatcruise on May 11, 2018 20:07:06 GMT -5
Spiro thinks that there are a ton of stupid people out there and unfortunately a lot of them are doctors treating diabetic patients, along with the infamous SO. Jeoy, along with Spiro and a few other posters on this board, have a unique insight into the miracle insulin Afrezza. Because we are Afrezza users and get to witness it's unique performance treating our Diabetes with every meal. We actually enjoy witnessing the incredible stupidity of so many doctors, stock analyst and in particular the infamous SO. Now, Joeypotsandpans is a fighter and appears is thoroughly enjoying the battle, because he knows he is right and can't lose. Whereas, Spiro and a few others, prefer the sidelines and just sit back and enjoy the fact that their lives are much better, because of Afrezza. Spiro here, Stupidity much be a contagious disease, because so many people, mostly Doctor's and SO, caught it so easily. Do we know how large SO is... that might just be him and a handful of doctors Clinical data will be the antidote for the contagious stupidity. It's coming.
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Post by dreamboatcruise on May 11, 2018 19:28:06 GMT -5
The Over the counter potential for afrezza has been discussed before. It is spirometry that would stop it, and in this country afrezza requires spirometry. sorry, Afrezza = regular insulin. Perhaps I misunderstand what you are saying, but you seem to be equating OTC insulin with generic insulin and prescription insulin with a non-generic product. I've no experience with how your pharmacies work, but that model does not sound like what we have here (in Canada). That is, generic drugs here may be prescription or be OTC. Earlier, you asked whether I think OTC insulin is a good idea. I am not a medical doctor, but I think it is complicated. I think it would be good for people who have the know how to deal with it, but I suspect a lot of people might misuse an OTC insulin and / or take it to address a problem they do not have. And to that last point, some people that know they can get access OTC use it to commit suicide. I sadly knew someone that did that. What peppy is referring to really isn't a distinction between generic vs brand, though all of the insulins that fall into this regulatory loop hole are old enough to have generics. See the following for discussion of this as pertains to US. insulinnation.com/treatment/why-is-some-insulin-available-over-the-counter/
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Post by dreamboatcruise on May 11, 2018 19:10:26 GMT -5
right. "Novartis CEO ( doesn't) tells employees 'we made a mistake' in making deal with Trump lawyer Michael Cohen" Short interest Not paying 100%+ in interest for borrowed shares. Jim Cramer has no information on MNKD Seeking Alpha is unbiased journalism Martin Shkreli had no influence whatsoever with MNKD investors here are "gump" fools who depend on luck and not research. You are the most intelligent person on this board; smarter than everyone else!!!!!
but you don't seem to know the meaning of the word or want to know the word; Narcissism NOUN excessive or erotic interest in oneself and one's physical appearance. • extreme selfishness, with a grandiose view of one's own talents and a craving for admiration, as characterizing a personality type. • self-centeredness arising from failure to distinguish the self from external objects, either in very young babies or as a feature of mental disorder. I certainly don't claim to be the most intelligent person on the board. There are many intelligent people here with whom I enjoy exchanging information and engaging in discussion. You do seem to either lack the tact or the ability to engage in discussions about the topics at hand and instead make personal attacks. I do look down on people that do that... and some days may choose to mock them. So don't lump yourself in with the bulk of the board that I respect. I would look forward to you stepping up and refuting something I've said in a non personal way if you think I'm misrepresenting something, and would respond with respect if treated with respect. Though I shall not be holding my breath.
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Post by dreamboatcruise on May 11, 2018 18:06:42 GMT -5
Person placeholder image Michael Kovacocy 2h Follow MNKD - the FUD is finished. Welcome to the period of the “grind up” and then “gap up” for this massively undervalued and under appreciated company. Graveyard for Shorts and my 3 year target of $40. Have a good weekend. #MNKD 6 Likes 3 Comments LikeLike Michael Kovacocy’s post CommentComment on Michael Kovacocy’s post ShareShare Michael Kovacocy’s post 1h Michael KovacocyIt is amusing how many people take their cue from the share price. Earlier in the week the company was dying, now the same people are bulls because of a 15 cent uptick. I really need to have another agenda and really believe in my thesis to deal with such people. LikeReply3 Likes 2h Michael KovacocyAnd just for fun - and to settle a few scores - I am personally working on bringing in some institutional investors and bulge bracket bank coverage for the shares. So full disclosure there. I am very much going to enjoy this. Several actors made this personal and let’s see where it goes from here :-) LikeReply6 LikesDarn it... I'm working on the same thing. I guess unless we both disclose which companies, we'll never know who gets credit for it.
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Post by dreamboatcruise on May 11, 2018 17:43:14 GMT -5
Joey... I was about to post that it seems he truly isn't getting your point on other revenue... but it now seems he just isn't giving you the proper info as a rebuttal or purposefully being dense. I thought to double check on the earnings call slides, and actually what is projected to be $25M - $30M (slide 11) is Afrezza Net Revenue... i.e. what you have projected does seem to come in below that range since other revenue wouldn't count towards it. And my apologies if I am misinterpreting what you've said... I have already admitted to trouble keeping up I still think in the grand scheme of things a couple of million dollars shifted right or left of the end of year mark isn't going to make or break.
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Post by dreamboatcruise on May 11, 2018 17:31:38 GMT -5
The Over the counter potential for afrezza has been discussed before. It is spirometry that would stop it, and in this country afrezza requires spirometry. You could be right that the only barrier would be spirometry, but I doubt it. I think you assume that Afrezza would somehow fall within the regulatory precedence of older insulins, but I think that is a mistake... it being a drug/device combo and a different delivery route. The insulins that are available over the counter existed before there was an FDA and thus have a unique status. If they were to just now be coming into the market there is certainly no guarantee the FDA wouldn't make them prescription only. Since Afrezza is drug + medical device that likely means the FDA would need to actively decide to make it OTC... and as stated, they might not even approve the older insulins as OTC if they were making that decision now. Just my take. Predicting what the FDA will do is certainly not something I've had a great deal of success with... such as losing lots of money on MNKD call options when CRLs were issued rather than approval.
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Post by dreamboatcruise on May 11, 2018 17:01:26 GMT -5
The Gumps of the world certainly aren't smart enough to understand scientific papers. Too many of the Gumps think they can stumble into success... probably because of that movie (It wasn't real life BTW). I'm not a gump; but I am real. I don't think you can say the same in how you represent yourself. It's not easy for you to get mirror images back is it? PHD or not; you are intelligent enough to know that most people can perceive dishonesty and intent. I don't think you earn your bonus unless you have the last word in every thread. It's either that; or you love seeing your own name. I don't share your perceptions or appreciate your "contributions" as much as you do. Narcissistic is what some might call your personality; other might just call you a well paid distractor. . Be sure to work it harder to maintain every last post; I personally expect it of you. end of conversation I think you are one of the unhinged (what I'll refer to as a Gump) if you seriously think pharmaceutical companies are paying to influence you here on proboards... or if you seriously think I am worried about whether you appreciate my contributions. Talk about narcissist. I get plenty of people that do appreciate my contributions... and I'm sure you get some... and likely they aren't the same group. I am primarily here to keep up on real MNKD (and larger diabetes related) news and learn from those people wishing to have intelligent discussions. I will assume you are not one wishing to participate in intelligent discussions with me. I'm not upset at all. I'll certainly avoid making personal attacks unless I am attacked by someone first. So this will be my last response on personal observations since you have ended your side... and then we can avoid engaging again in such a manner. [Mods: I'd be very pleased if all attacks of a personal nature were deleted. It does lower the civility of the board. Just be fair about deleting all personal attacks please.]
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Post by dreamboatcruise on May 11, 2018 16:50:01 GMT -5
What are you saying? Force Mannkind to teach generic drug manufacturers how to produce generic Afrezza? Good for diabetics, not good for Mannkind's business model. no, I am saying, as you know Afrezza is made with NPH, generic insulin, I would love for Afrezza to be over the counter, here and in India. That is what I am saying. What do you think? I'm sure just a typo... NPH is altered for longer effect. Afrezza is made from Regular Insulin. Unless Mannkind radically lowered the price (and thus market cap potential for us investors) few could afford it OTC. I seriously doubt FDA would approve as OTC until long term safety trials are complete.
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Post by dreamboatcruise on May 11, 2018 16:41:13 GMT -5
Sounds like wainwright and co. Is getting ready to help raise funds again hopefully at a better sp in the future. Yeah, maybe they lowered target now so they can raise it back to $7 next quarter hoping for the same effect as last year's PIPE run up. I think another $6 offering would make us all extremely happy.
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Post by dreamboatcruise on May 11, 2018 16:24:41 GMT -5
Are you off your paranoia meds Baba? You actually think Novo and Lilly are going to pay someone to come here to convince... YOU? Good lord, monumental hubris in addition to paranoia. Darn, now I've got to report to the CEO of Novo that Baba is unconvinced... wow is he gong to be upset You're a funny little man. Its not Paranoia that on any positive news day or days where the SP goes green, We all know the same few guys will come out in full force with Triple or Quadruple their daily posts counts spewing negative spins No it is really quite unhinged from reality and paranoia to think that posts here on MNKD proboards are important enough for fortune 100 pharma companies to be spending money to try to influence you. You ain't that important, dear. BTW, since Matt seemed to be included in that list... on this up day, how many posts has he made? In case you don't know how to look it up, I just did... ZERO so far. Posts in general by everyone have gone up leading up to and after earnings. I would suspect they will be high potentially all the way through ADA and after. And I suspect I will be participating in discussions as I have for a LONG time... since I've long had a significant amount of money invested in owning MNKD shares (and tend to post when I buy more), as I did recently (and stating that buying now into run up to ADA might be a good trade or even potentially good long term buy and hold point). If you think all of my posts are negative, it just proves you aren't smart enough to even understand most of my posts. Many are pointing out reasons why I believe Afrezza will soon start to be recognized as best in class. Obviously you were never best in any class.
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Post by dreamboatcruise on May 11, 2018 15:34:39 GMT -5
The Gumps of the world certainly aren't smart enough to understand scientific papers. Too many of the Gumps think they can stumble into success... probably because of that movie (It wasn't real life BTW). You know, DBC, long, long ago I use to repeatedly make the point that the shorts were sharper than the longs in stocks like this (I got plenty of lizard dung for thinking that). It does not surprise me that you know a lot of stuff about this subject matter, because if you did not, it would be someone else doing what you're doing here. Digger, the Trader and Matt know plenty of stuff, too. I mean, the interests backing you guys up aren't going to have any old idiot on here representing their cause, they have hundreds of millions at stake. However, for all your knowledge on diabetes and related topics, you don't have the sense to realize how transparent you all are. I guess it's likely that you actually do know, but just don't care and figure you're effective regardless (hey, I wrote "effective" without having to think about it!!). Are you off your paranoia meds Baba? You actually think Novo and Lilly are going to pay someone to come here to convince... YOU? Good lord, monumental hubris in addition to paranoia. Darn, now I've got to report to the CEO of Novo that Baba is unconvinced... wow is he gong to be upset You're a funny little man.
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