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Post by dreamboatcruise on Feb 20, 2018 14:44:50 GMT -5
At least this type of article proves that computers aren't yet ready to take over the world.
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Post by dreamboatcruise on Feb 20, 2018 14:24:09 GMT -5
Trial eligibility changed from a1C of 7.5-10.5 to simply greater than 7.0 a1C plus smokers are now ineligible. That was a bit of an oversight if they had not already excluded smokers. Can't just exclude them from the Afrezza arm.
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Post by dreamboatcruise on Feb 20, 2018 14:16:21 GMT -5
Dr. Kendall wasn't even announced at that point, so you do have some flaws in your memory of the call. Maybe good to go back and listen again, if you want to quote, so you aren't throwing things out as fact that aren't. Not meaning to sound harsh, but simply throwing out a disclaimer of "if I did not hear it wrong" is not nearly as good as actually spending the relatively small amount of time to verify what you are claiming. noble.mediasite.com/mediasite/Play/3a495467d3b9401aadab15290f339d0d1dMike has said that the Q1 ad spending was pulled early... i.e. it was what occurred in Q4. Anything else... if you're just writing a list of speculative hypotheticals then you can check other threads here where the list gets very long... Apple, Amazon, Dexcom, Onduo, boats full Afrezza, etc. Though, yet another tread simply listing such things hardly adds any meaningful content here since it has been done so, so many times before. Though the real thing missing is enough cash to mount a meaningful national ad campaign, expand sales efforts to PCPs and get through the long struggle to convince doctors and insurance companies to accept Afrezza.
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Post by dreamboatcruise on Feb 19, 2018 11:56:20 GMT -5
Is the consensus that the $25M end of quarter covenant with Deerfield is still in effect and that it is unlikely it will be met without raising additional cash before end of Q1? Or has anyone run the numbers and thinks we'll eek by meeting the covenant? Might another PIPE be coming before earnings are released? If guidance is missed it seems after earnings could be a rough time for a PIPE. Would Deerfield relax the covenant... what pound of flesh would they extract? beat earnings and they could very easily announce a partner at literally anytime, domestic/international. Good luck to your short position. Ah, yes, the imaginary partner they've been hiding for literally years.
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Post by dreamboatcruise on Feb 16, 2018 19:11:25 GMT -5
Bond firms like Deerfield don't EVER relax covenants without cost. As noted elsewhere, there is a NASDAQ marketplace rule that prevents a company from issuing more than 20% of its outstanding shares at a discount in any six month period without prior shareholder approval. However, a 1% discount and a 20% discount are treated the same; both are an issuance at a discount. If Deerfield can negotiate a percentage discount and a number of shares that keeps MNKD in compliance with NASDAQ listing, that is a win for all. What form might you envision that taking... perhaps MNKD paying down some future debt with shares and getting a temporary reduction in the $25M end of quarter covenant?
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Post by dreamboatcruise on Feb 16, 2018 18:25:22 GMT -5
Is the consensus that the $25M end of quarter covenant with Deerfield is still in effect and that it is unlikely it will be met without raising additional cash before end of Q1? Or has anyone run the numbers and thinks we'll eek by meeting the covenant?
Might another PIPE be coming before earnings are released? If guidance is missed it seems after earnings could be a rough time for a PIPE.
Would Deerfield relax the covenant... what pound of flesh would they extract?
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Post by dreamboatcruise on Feb 16, 2018 16:45:10 GMT -5
We got this. Just need to remain patient and let things play out. Chill for the weekend all! Perhaps chill for the next 6 months. Besieging a well fortified castle takes time.
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Post by dreamboatcruise on Feb 16, 2018 15:09:19 GMT -5
lakon... realistically speaking I think your 2018 list should have a lot fewer script increase milestones and additional raisings of cash.
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Post by dreamboatcruise on Feb 16, 2018 14:44:54 GMT -5
I think Kendall saw the stat study. He has seen the writing on the wall. JUNE! Exactly, people can spin it anyway they want but that’s the bottom line! Hopefully the writing said "Hit the ground running, and start getting some traction. Keep your nose to the grindstone, it's going to be a tough battle against entrenched interests".
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Post by dreamboatcruise on Feb 16, 2018 12:04:48 GMT -5
I don't think tv ads are running anymore this year. Mike said he moved the tv pilot test from Q1'18 to Q4'18. They executed it in some of the top geo markets where there were doctors prescribing afrezza. I assume they are now in the measurement stage where they are seeing if those markets have provided any lift in scripts. To be frank, they don't have the money for a national tv campaign at this moment - burning 10M per month with less than 2 months left of cash does not allow much room for a marketing budget. The window for a recap event is closing so i expect it will be pretty soon. After that maybe they launch a national campaign. If they have to rely on private placement with discount to lure buyers, then the 20% dilution limit per six month period would mean this next raise would be less money than the last, assuming the price doesn't fortuitously (or otherwise) spike right when they need it to. It seems a catch 22, if they are perpetually cash strapped and can't afford major marketing expenditures.
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Post by dreamboatcruise on Feb 16, 2018 9:35:21 GMT -5
What am I missing? I don't see anything about MNKD or afrezza. That's exactly my point. Charles is such a fan, he fails to mention either as often as he can. I hardly see him becoming a 'wing of Mannkind'. It may be that MNKD isn't paying him for sponsorship at the present time.
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Post by dreamboatcruise on Feb 16, 2018 9:01:57 GMT -5
No worries. If this had any possibility at all, Mike C would have disclosed this to Dr. Kendall and he would have NEVER left Lilly. Dr. Kendall joining Mannkind is "almost" proof that Mike has something up his sleeve. These arguments have been made for every hire MNKD has made in the last two years. "Something" has always been on the horizon, yet nothing ever comes out. People claimed that Matt had to have something up his sleeve when he hired Mike. Then Mike had to have something up his sleeve when he hired the Chief Commercial Officer and the Chief People Officer. It's an argument that is pure speculation and has proven to be incorrect time and time again. We won't know why he came over, just like we haven't been told why Patrick McCauley or Stuart Tross came to MNKD but it certainly doesn't mean there's something in the works. People have been claiming that something has been up the sleeve of MNKD for years now without a lot to show for it. Perhaps there's nothing up there after all and what you see is what you get. That's heresy in the church of MNKD. Here we believe one must always forget the past to have the future turn out different. Granted it goes against wisdom passed down through the ages, but heck... this is a cult, not a school of philosophy. Now get in line, or it's off to reeducation for you. Though in all seriousness, I think Dr. Kendall coming on board means something. Perhaps there is outside chance he was motivated strictly by getting away from a previous situation and simply looking for any paycheck, but I think that unlikely. I would assume he signed an NDA and given some additional insight into the business than we have, and he was convinced MNKD has a descent chance at succeeding with Afrezza. Though the calculation of success may be very different for an exec vs for a shareholder. We throw money at purchasing to average down as dilution occurs, whereas an exec gets a big paycheck each month from the company and likely gets free stock options over time giving them an equity stake safe from dilution. Very different risk profile.
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Post by dreamboatcruise on Feb 16, 2018 8:35:25 GMT -5
Though it seems clear we are still left with a lot of speculation (as much of your list is) regarding how and when they can get to profitability. It is clear MNKD still has a lot of difficult work ahead of them trying to succeed in a healthcare system that is rigged against them. At least it looks like the right people are in place for the journey.
As for me, it's mostly holding and waiting. I think we may get further share price weakness on earnings call and with the next round of financing. IF I buy more it likely wouldn't be until after those two events. If we get another nice surge up before those two events I likely will sell some May calls I have. In the past I've strictly been a buy and hold person, but have had way too many calls expire worthless that I could have made money on if I'd taken advantage of opportunities to sell. The why sell is as it always has... if the risk profile is too great for ones investment needs or more strategically with the realization that there could be more dilution and opportunity to buy back in at a lower price.
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Post by dreamboatcruise on Feb 15, 2018 21:05:34 GMT -5
Has anyone seen Afrezza ads on TV recently?
I think some here have been suggesting that MNKD stopped running them before the start of 2018.
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Post by dreamboatcruise on Feb 15, 2018 16:51:11 GMT -5
Let’s say the UAE chip is under the left hand and the RLS chip is under the right, which one would you pick? Or perhaps like three cups, UAE is under one, RLS under another... but no matter how closely we watch the slight of hand we keep picking the cup with nothing under it
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