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Post by dreamboatcruise on Feb 1, 2018 13:42:46 GMT -5
I can tell you Osborne would be objective and would not inject any false statements into an article. Inviting AF to view and discuss Afrezza manufacturing and costs is a mistake in my opinion. I know most here despise Osborne, however, he does accurately model cash and scripts; a concern that prevents share price from appreciating. If Osborne could ease Wall Street's concerns, Michael should grant Osborne an interview. How do you know what SO will or will not inject into his articles? Unless you are SO then that is merely your personal opinion and nothing else. He is trash and not worth the time of day. And I don't think he influences Wall Street. One can often safely assume that past behavior is an indicator of future behavior. I don't follow SO closely but have read some of what he's written because of the discussions here. I have not seen any untrue facts (short of one mistake he subsequently corrected) in his writing about MNKD. I don't follow him because he basically is just summarizing info that most of us already know regarding scripts and financials. I do agree with you that he doesn't likely influence Wall Street.
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Post by dreamboatcruise on Feb 1, 2018 13:32:20 GMT -5
Imagine a wealthy stranger randomly tells you that they want to, and have the ability to, cryogenically freeze you for a 250 year period, while offering you $60 million dollars worth of MNKD stock, at todays prices, tethered to a good-til-kill limit sell order at $1,000 per share and a bank account for the sale proceeds to transfer to; but you have to sign a contract on the dotted line, and jump inside, right that moment. The stranger offers you a pen: Do you grab the pen, sign and jump in? Your response: A. All in B. Nope C. I really hope GTK applies to the limit order. D. Other If I could take our President with me, the answer would be an unqualified "yes." You've won my vote. Would there be room for the VP as well?
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Post by dreamboatcruise on Feb 1, 2018 13:22:35 GMT -5
If Amerisource investors are as dedicated as MNKD investors we're going to end up with 6 billion votes for one and 7 billion votes for the other. Can't predict which way it goes, however.
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Post by dreamboatcruise on Jan 31, 2018 21:57:41 GMT -5
How are you trying to estimate what the reported revenue will be? If you are looking at past ratio between Symphony data and MNKD reported revenue and applying that same ratio to the Q4 Symphony data, then it wouldn't matter what the absolute accuracy of the Symphony data is, as it would be built into that ratio. You shouldn't say that historically MNKD reported revenue is 60% (or whatever it is) of Symphony and then say that because IMS is larger taking 60% of an IMS number results in making guidance. That seems to be "cooking" up an estimate to reach a desired goal. To me it appears we did miss. Obviously I will be shocked in a good way if they met the low end. Even if we squeak by at just a bit over six it will still be taken negative since the range was huge and 8 would be closer to middle and par. The 1.2 million in institutional revenue over eleven months so it may move the needle a few hundread thousand at best. I believe revenue is around 5.3 or 5.4 million for the 2nd half of 2017 Company already warned it would be low end of the previous range. Given that and how hard it is to reconcile low end with script data, I would think meeting the low end would be viewed as a positive. It seems you would. I know I would.
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Post by dreamboatcruise on Jan 31, 2018 20:56:36 GMT -5
It doesn't much matter if they are at least consistent in their inaccuracy. While I agree % increase wise it doesn't matter much. It does matter if it is the difference between meeting guidance or not, as I'm sure shorts will beating their drums if it is missed. How are you trying to estimate what the reported revenue will be? If you are looking at past ratio between Symphony data and MNKD reported revenue and applying that same ratio to the Q4 Symphony data, then it wouldn't matter what the absolute accuracy of the Symphony data is, as it would be built into that ratio. You shouldn't say that historically MNKD reported revenue is 60% (or whatever it is) of Symphony and then say that because IMS is larger taking 60% of an IMS number results in making guidance. That seems to be "cooking" up an estimate to reach a desired goal. To me it appears we did miss. Obviously I will be shocked in a good way if they met the low end.
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Post by dreamboatcruise on Jan 31, 2018 20:01:37 GMT -5
@kastanes ... have you suggest he contact investor relations to try to set up an interview? I once asked Michael if he would like to ask him anything, he wrote, he prefers to ignore him. Perhaps you should have worded it "do you want to tell him anything" Mike recently invited AF to visit I believe. I'd sure prefer spending time with SO than AF... if gun were to my head to do one or the other.
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Post by dreamboatcruise on Jan 31, 2018 19:08:02 GMT -5
Digressing here a bit I am but I’m not convinced Symphony script estimates for MNKD are close to accurate. Mike commented weeks ago (tweeted I believe) that IMS reported 650 scripts one week. Also, looking at some of S.O.’s articles regarding Symphony vs. IMS script counts with other drugs/companies, he mentions how IMS, for example in one of his articles, he would adjust up 10% to try and obtain more accurate numbers (I Googled IMS vs. Symphony scripts along with his name to find articles). Also seems odd to me that S.O. has not been mentioning IMS data relating to MNKD as in the past he would talk about both IMS and Symphony numbers when discussing other companies’ script counts. It doesn't much matter if they are at least consistent in their inaccuracy. Then one simply looks at the historical MNKD reported revenue vs symphony and adjust the current numbers accordingly. Though, with MNKD adjusting the way they recognize revenue starting this quarter, I guess that relationship will need to be recalculated. SO likely isn't paying for access to either IMS nor Symphony, but relying on someone having access to Bloomberg, which has Symphony.
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Post by dreamboatcruise on Jan 31, 2018 18:00:46 GMT -5
What about avoiding first pass hepatic metabolism/ were most drugs effects are mitigated leading to larger doses . Yes, that is true for some drugs. Of course how that lines up against the amount wasted with inhalation probably varies from API to API. Another complication in which way efficiency would tilt is that for small molecule drugs much of what is inhaled but doesn't reach deep lungs would eventually end up in stomach, so it could be absorbed eventually, unlike insulin which would be broken down if ingested. So it likely varies API to API.
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Post by dreamboatcruise on Jan 31, 2018 17:48:29 GMT -5
Useing drugs more efficiently ,,,DBC / a cost savings in of itself . Inhalation actually isn't an efficient delivery mechanism for an API. Much more actual insulin is needed for TS for an equivalent "unit" compared to injected. A significant amount of powder does not reach the deep lungs. Fortunately insulin isn't hugely expensive to manufacture. The inefficiency could be a problem if a particular API is really costly to make.
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Post by dreamboatcruise on Jan 31, 2018 17:45:34 GMT -5
That's a bit overstated since many drugs either would have no benefit from the fast onset of an inhaled delivery, or even be less useful. Though there certainly are many that would benefit from speed of onset. Fast onset not a benefit? So people don't mind a long onset? Just that like how Diabetics don't mind injections? Think of all the extended release versions of oral drugs... slows down the absorption into bloodstream because much longer period of action is needed. So, yes... not only not minding, but wanting slower absorption. And other things like antibiotics where it might not be detrimental to have fast absorption, but likewise wouldn't have any benefit. The two areas where TS is a benefit are for drugs where faster onset needed or where it is large molecule that would otherwise require injection. This isn't me speculating... this is what MNKD itself says. Basal insulin good example of drug class where faster is not better. Load Tresiba on TS and inhale it and it would become a "worst in class" basal. Something can be good without needing to be sold as the solution to every problem in the world.
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Post by dreamboatcruise on Jan 31, 2018 17:31:29 GMT -5
So are these Institutional Sales #s excluded or Included in the Normal Symphony Data we see updates Weekly and have been tracking, Just split between Retail and Institutional on a per Month basis? Or is the weekly Symphony Data only for Retail? If so then Net Sales for each Month for Afrezza would actually be both the Retail Data and the Institutional Data then we have only been looking at part of the picture? (even if only missing a small part) If Institutional sales are additive to Symphony Retail, are they big enough to meet the low end of expectations? Is “other income” (milestone payments, payments from RLS for the manufacturing/head count that MNKD assists with) included in the reported net/gross revenue numbers? I always had a feeling that somehow we would make the low end of expectations. But if you're using the historical ratio between Symphony numbers and revenue reported on MNKD financials then it would be incorrect to add in the institutional and assume the ratio would stay the same. Symphony hasn't changed the way they report, I assume... so it would seem the best predictor of reported revenue would be to continue looking at the Symphony data we have been looking at and then applying the historical correction factor to get MNKD reported revenue estimate. IMO I hope you're correct on revenue expectation. If they did make it and then gave some strong guidance for 2018, I think share price would react positively and could really help with a share offering.
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Post by dreamboatcruise on Jan 31, 2018 17:16:51 GMT -5
I'd rather have a Patented Technology that can make ANY Drug into the "Best in Class" such as we have. I think he is purposely focusing on the word "New" and trying to spin it. That's a bit overstated since many drugs either would have no benefit from the fast onset of an inhaled delivery, or even be less useful. Though there certainly are many that would benefit from speed of onset.
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Post by dreamboatcruise on Jan 31, 2018 17:10:13 GMT -5
brentie ... wonder which trial he was referring to in the second quote. It is really a shame there is apparently so much impressive data that was seemingly sidelined by the FDA. I do wonder with so many trials how they ended up with the cartridges that aren't really unit for unit comparable to RAA. Might that actually have been from differences in the dreamboat vs medtone? I may be wrong but I thought that the FDA came up with the unit to unit comparison numbers. I know they had concerns with dosage when it was submitted to the FDA for approval.... "Another concern raised: MannKind’s new drug application for Afrezza cited cartridges containing up to three units of injected insulin, and double-strength cartridges with up to six units, when its clinical trial used cartridges with up to four units and double-strength cartridges of up to eight. The company cited an equivalency study that compared its inhaled insulin with injected insulin from other companies; Afrezza would compete with two injectable insulins, Humalog sold by Eli Lilly, and Novolog sold by Novo Nordisk." www.genengnews.com/gen-news-highlights/one-small-step-for-mannkind-fda-panel-recommends-afrezza/81249695?kwrd=type%201%20diabetesThanks, that does seem to suggest MNKD new better and presumably was then forced/pressured into accepting flawed scheme. It's a shame. It seems it would be nearly impossible to correct at this point. At least I don't think the idea of having different strength old "unit" product and new "unit" product floating out together would fly from a safety standpoint. I suppose they could just give up on "units" and switch to mg... though that was considered a flaw of Exubera if I remember correctly.
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Post by dreamboatcruise on Jan 31, 2018 15:33:58 GMT -5
I watched the video clip, then the follow-up videos suggested by youtube are of the Captain and his hapless buddy, Gilligan. What message does that send. Working at Mannkind is like being a castaway? Yeesh, MNKD never seems to catch a break. I think youtube individualizes what it shows next rather than always showing the same thing. Perhaps there is something in your browsing habits that suggest you like Gilligan When I viewed it the next vid up was the recent interview on with Mike C. The dreamboat cruise has ended up taking a lot longer than what many of us expected when we set out on this excursion. Hopefully the Professor has finally figured out how to craft a radio from coconut shells.
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Post by dreamboatcruise on Jan 31, 2018 15:07:53 GMT -5
@kastanes... have you suggest he contact investor relations to try to set up an interview?
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