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Post by dreamboatcruise on Jan 25, 2018 19:46:20 GMT -5
Googling suggests that firm is one of the smallest brokerages in the country and has only four offices in Florida. Is presenting there really worth the cost, time, and effort? How can this be a significant event? If MNKD has something to say to investors than it is easier, faster and cheaper done via a press release. So were is the press release that supports the jump today? And why should an increase in scripts by 10% or similar move the needle that much? Don't look for too much meaning in chaos. There is little way of calculating a true fair value for the stock right now, so wild swings can happen.
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Post by dreamboatcruise on Jan 25, 2018 19:34:12 GMT -5
Mango, I understand your position completely. I felt the same way for many months until I realized how many on this board were lending shares. Several months ago I realized that I own more shares than the CEO and CFO combined and I make a lot less money, so I decided to make a little interest until the big boys buy a lot more shares. But I also had a day like today in mind. I called Fidelity this morning and called my shares back, just to put a little additional pressure on Shorts. It's nothing personal against you or anyone else, it's just something I don't agree with because it's not being loyal to the cause behind the company's existence. So you will never sell any of your shares? That would be disloyal to the cause in the same way, if not more so. Selling not only puts the shares back into circulation but it's you cashing out. Loaning one share does theoretically add one share into circulation, but I'm still long that share and fully rooting for the company to succeed and shorts to lose. If I buy 10,000 shares and that same day loan them out to be shorted, the net effect as far as theoretical share price pressure is simply canceling my own buy... nothing worse. It's almost as if I've placed a side bet on MNKD with a short. No net shares entering the market nor being taken out.
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Post by dreamboatcruise on Jan 25, 2018 18:11:04 GMT -5
Have you called them back before? Did you give or they ask for a reason? Do you plan to get them loaned out again at some point or pretty sure you wouldn't? I'd be worried if I called them back, I'd get on a black list with the loan dept. I'd love to play the game strategically and call them back during a period like now when the company might be trying to orchestrate a run up for a share offering, but only if I was certain I could get them back in the program. I have not called them back previously, but I've only been a lender for 2 or 3 months. They made it clear that I was still in the lending program and just need to give Fidelity a call if I want to lend again. I will lend again when the dust settles. We will see then if they shut me out. Please do post if so. I've been very curious about that.
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Post by dreamboatcruise on Jan 25, 2018 18:10:10 GMT -5
So. The stock is up 41% on the day.... and my miniscule number of 2019 long call options are down 31%. Great. I don't think I will ever completely understand options. With call options there can be a big difference between whether your broker is reporting the value based on "last trade" or on "bid". My broker confusingly uses both of these... so in my list of options it can show one change for the day and yet that isn't reflected in the total portfolio summary for the day. Though it still seems very odd that your calls are showing down today. Maybe you should call your broker and have them walk you through why that is showing up that way. Rest assured 2019 call options are worth more today than they were yesterday.
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Post by dreamboatcruise on Jan 25, 2018 16:54:49 GMT -5
From your lips to... I've got some May $3 calls, so hopefully I don't miss out on selling as I did with my just expired worthless $2.5 Jan calls. The Feb, 2018, calls were asking $.70 w a few minutes to go in the trading day, today. That's a $.90 premium for a few weeks time. Hmmmmmmmm. Puts have similar sky high premiums. Huge implied volatility. Likely because... the darn stock is so volatile. That and options market makers are like the ones that really made the money in the gold rush... the ones that were selling overpriced shovels and picks. Hmmm... should I buy a few more shovels and keep digging? Has to be gold eventually, right?
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Post by dreamboatcruise on Jan 25, 2018 16:41:42 GMT -5
Fidelity asked me to loan my shares and at first, I said no. As the shares continued to fall in value, they asked again about 12 months later. At that point I decided to try to recapture some of my real losses (options expired worthless) while I still held on to my shares. I view it as a DRIP program and have purchased more shares with the interest earned along the way. I don’t think my shares make much difference when you consider 33m shares short. Mango, I understand your position completely. I felt the same way for many months until I realized how many on this board were lending shares. Several months ago I realized that I own more shares than the CEO and CFO combined and I make a lot less money, so I decided to make a little interest until the big boys buy a lot more shares. But I also had a day like today in mind. I called Fidelity this morning and called my shares back, just to put a little additional pressure on Shorts. Have you called them back before? Did you give or they ask for a reason? Do you plan to get them loaned out again at some point or pretty sure you wouldn't? I'd be worried if I called them back, I'd get on a black list with the loan dept. I'd love to play the game strategically and call them back during a period like now when the company might be trying to orchestrate a run up for a share offering, but only if I was certain I could get them back in the program.
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Post by dreamboatcruise on Jan 25, 2018 16:35:30 GMT -5
Today was so much fun...let's do it again tomorrow, eh? Here is my thought. Based on what occurred in October, the price will probably consolidate a bit tomorrow. Then during sometime next week, there will another leg up with good volume with a one-day increase of $1 or more. From your lips to... I've got some May $3 calls, so hopefully I don't miss out on selling as I did with my just expired worthless $2.5 Jan calls.
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Post by dreamboatcruise on Jan 25, 2018 16:21:12 GMT -5
Transparency is a double edged sword with both investors as well as competition seeing the navigation of MNKD's Management. I'd enjoy some transparency but not at the cost of giving Big Pharma and those who represents Big Pharma like our buddy Cramer/Seeking Alplha & and the Fools talking points for further manipulation. The competition actually has access to data. MNKD I believe has said that IMS data is better but they are going with just Symphony because it's cheaper. Sanofi, Novo and Lilly undoubtedly pay for Symphony and IMS... as well as data on exactly when and where adverts are run by their competitors. It's a bit of a valid point that if transparency would reveal data giving shorts ammo, it is double edged. Though lack of transparency cuts in a negative way too, because it then raises the specter that it likely isn't overly optimistic data, because otherwise it couldn't be exploited by shorts and would thus be revealed. To me it would be a no brainer to show regional data if it were good and could show evidence of a path to profitability... i.e. $X spent on advertising in our trial regions lead to Y% increase in sales, thus if we were to roll out nationally we should achieve profitability in Z months, which means we need to raise $100M to achieve profitability. I think that would give a big boost of confidence to market emboldening longs, not shorts.
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Post by dreamboatcruise on Jan 25, 2018 15:18:16 GMT -5
Beyond the diet is digestive care. My a1c climbed to 6.8 while my blood glucose average was at 160. I took myself off Metformin which was creating havoc with my liver enzymes. I take no meds.. but trying to change the diagnostic from Pre-diabetic to Diabetic. The insurance company wants to pay for ONE test strip a day. What can you learn from that? I pay out of pocket to get 3 test strips a day for biofeedback. With this many strips I can judge if my Pancreas is creating insulin. Going back to the endocrinologist in a couple of weeks. For the last 5 months I have been able to maintain my daily blood sugar average @ 128 . 100% within range. Couldn't have done it without test strips. I asked for a larger quantity from my doctor who contacted Blue Shield of California PPO 90% . who Declined the request because I am now in a healthy range. The Insurance companies are extremely short sighted especially with consideration as to how Diabetes affects other health abnormalities like Heart, Memory & Depression. I guess the Insurance companies don't consider or won't consider the idea that one medication or disease affects another. With my success of reversing diabetes; what does the insurance company want to do?: eliminate the tools I used to reverse the disease at an early stage. I know for sure that had I let things go further down the line I wouldn't have been able to get to the point when my pancreas started functioning again. Sadly, insurance company execs are judged and compensated the way almost every other corporate exec is... on short term quarterly results. Sometimes you get insurance companies doing things geared towards long term health, but it's not surprising that is the exception rather than the norm. Our health system is a for-profit enterprise. Patient/consumer advocacy will always be needed to push/shame the companies into doing the right thing.
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Post by dreamboatcruise on Jan 25, 2018 15:05:17 GMT -5
And Schwab just took the shares from my other two accounts at 23%
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Post by dreamboatcruise on Jan 25, 2018 14:57:34 GMT -5
seanismorris So I'm guessing a pic of the Joker dressed as Santa taking a drag on a cigarette from his trach tube would be the making of nightmares With regard to scripts, the meaningful thing would be a sustained upward trajectory of NRx which would show that we are getting a steady increase in prescribing doctors ("writers" as management calls them). “pic of the Joker dressed as Santa taking a drag on a cigarette from his trach tube would be the making of nightmares” + teaching little girls gymnastics = never sleeping again (horrifying) I agree... previously I would have liked to see a “sustained upward trajectory of NRx” it didn’t even need to be that large... But now, if we really are spending ‘massively’ on marketing. We need to see some really impressive numbers. The numbers this year (so far) have been a buzzkill. In the world of pharma, MNKD isn't close to "massive" spending on marketing. Symphony and IMS have data by region. Hopefully MNKD is already (or will soon be) seeing the response to advertising show up in the targeted regions. It would be nice if they were transparent enough to share that... but I'm not holding my breath. If they don't share it... what would that mean. I don't know. If they can't share it, would be nice if they explained that... so as to ease the minds of people like me. Is advertising effective in getting new "writers" on board? or merely in driving patients, who must then jump through the considerable hurdle of finding a doc that is already prescribing Afrezza? These are the sorts of questions I'd love to see discussed openly by management.
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Post by dreamboatcruise on Jan 25, 2018 14:45:45 GMT -5
It really pisses me off and saddens me at the same time to see people talking about loaning their shares out for them to be used to short MannKind. What a disgrace. Nothing against ya'll personally, but damn...just how I feel you're obviously free to do as you wish it's your choice The income from loaning over the years has significantly contributed to my ability to withstand the pain of the decline in share price. Loaning out my shares with regard to any potential downward pressure on price is certainly no worse than if I had sold the shares. Though due to paltry (microscopic) size of my holdings compared to float, my actions wouldn't move the needle. I think shorts contribute to volatility, but that cuts both ways. Where the price ultimately settles will be determined by the perceived value of the future earnings per share, which is not affected by open short interest.
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Post by dreamboatcruise on Jan 25, 2018 14:34:30 GMT -5
seanismorrisSo I'm guessing a pic of the Joker dressed as Santa taking a drag on a cigarette from his trach tube would be the making of nightmares With regard to scripts, the meaningful thing would be a sustained upward trajectory of NRx which would show that we are getting a steady increase in prescribing doctors ("writers" as management calls them).
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Post by dreamboatcruise on Jan 25, 2018 14:09:29 GMT -5
Schwab is looking for shares. Current rate is 23%. All of my shares had been returned to me at Schwab in Nov and early Dec. The only other time I had them returned in 3 years was for less than a week. I called on Monday to inquire about getting them back in the program. Today they took shares from one of my three accounts with MNKD. I just called again about the other two accounts. They seem to say they don't have enough demand. Were you already set up in the loan program? I hope they aren't begging to get people into the loan program while ignoring those with shares available already set up to loan.
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Post by dreamboatcruise on Jan 25, 2018 14:02:11 GMT -5
Priorities: 1. Better Afrezza coverage 2. Massive scripts jump (tomorrow) 3. Global Afrezza partnership (with cash) 4. Technospere partner (with cash) I have coverage #1 because it would make #2 sustainable... Looks like the sellers came out in force at $4, we need some news... With no news, the selling is understandable... scripts haven’t been impressive (yet). When you went to the mall as a kid and sat on Santa's knee did you present him with your list of "priorities" I wish we would get a massive jump in scripts tomorrow... and of course I'm still waiting for the pony. Might even be able to buy a real horse some day if we get a massive jump in scripts
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