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Post by dreamboatcruise on Jan 20, 2018 15:15:17 GMT -5
It would be interesting to get an update regarding his view of Afrezza today, but I can't imagine anyone else providing insight on insulins to someone with his depth of understanding and length of experience both as a patient and educator. He quite literally wrote the book on it... or at least one of the books. Unless his success with Afrezza is much improved now, it seems like he still has something to learn, because his experience does not sound like the “life changing experiences” other users have professed. He might have already been achieving very good results with his pump... and not particularly mind wearing one. It is possible to have tight control with subq, even if it might be hard for most. He does seem to acknowledge benefits of the fast action of Afrezza. It may be somewhat of a case of selection bias when looking at people that routinely post about the life changing effects of Afrezza... people that were unhappy with their BG control or the accommodations they had to make to achieve it and thus had opportunity for a big life quality improvement. Logical they would be the ones talking a lot about Afrezza. We can't assume everyone would be the same. Though all of this is simply conjecture on my part. I am a firm believer that with properly designed trials, MNKD should be able to show that a general population of patients would on average achieve superior results with Afrezza, because we know the general population already on subq on average has pretty poor BG control.
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Post by dreamboatcruise on Jan 19, 2018 22:35:41 GMT -5
It would be interesting to get an update regarding his view of Afrezza today, but I can't imagine anyone else providing insight on insulins to someone with his depth of understanding and length of experience both as a patient and educator. He quite literally wrote the book on it... or at least one of the books.
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Post by dreamboatcruise on Jan 19, 2018 16:32:35 GMT -5
Wonder why "minimal or no risk of hypoglycemia" wasn't listed in the Pros? Or did I miss it? That was what he was saying in last paragraph of the pros.
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Post by dreamboatcruise on Jan 19, 2018 16:28:39 GMT -5
Over the years I've traded a fair number of options but haven't really paid much attention to the dynamics of share price action right before expiration. With large caps I doubt the options tail wags the dog, but with MNKD I am coming to believe the share price may be driven by the options. Is there a way of predicting whether the price will close right above or below a particular strike... e.g. if there are more open calls is it likely to end just below the strike and if more open puts it will end just above? Just had a bunch of $0.5 pre-split options expire 2 pennies short of in the money. Max Pain shows the option distribution, so maybe one could extrapolate from that? According to that we should have closed above $2.50. But I guess an underlying assumption, which is likely flawed, is that significantly all of the writers of the options (call and put) are the market makers that then steer the underlying stock price. With MNKD there have been some masochist retail investors like me and a few others I know here that have over the years written puts. I guess there is no perfect way of knowing what is in the financial interest of those pushing the share price around.
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Post by dreamboatcruise on Jan 19, 2018 16:12:37 GMT -5
Over the years I've traded a fair number of options but haven't really paid much attention to the dynamics of share price action right before expiration. With large caps I doubt the options tail wags the dog, but with MNKD I am coming to believe the share price may be driven by the options.
Is there a way of predicting whether the price will close right above or below a particular strike... e.g. if there are more open calls is it likely to end just below the strike and if more open puts it will end just above?
Just had a bunch of $0.5 pre-split options expire 2 pennies short of in the money.
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SEC
Jan 19, 2018 15:51:25 GMT -5
Post by dreamboatcruise on Jan 19, 2018 15:51:25 GMT -5
"I think it's the only option they have, since they obviously don't have cash to pay the debt, but I don't expect the market to react favorably to the news. Paying your debts by diluting your shareholders isn't typically a strategy that the Street looks upon favorably."
#1- Um, you're forgetting that MNKD could still generate other sources of revenue to pay back their debt. Partner buy-ins, for example. #2- This is not a long term solution but a quick fix. It's not a solid corporate long term strategy in any playbook, it comes from the short list. #3- While the market may react unfavorably, that too is only temporary. #4- Scripts are not the ONLY thing that can have a positive impact. Announcements of better insurance coverage, partnerships, cash infused buy-ins, positive news from ADA, etc are also additional sources that can have a positive impact.
Just my humble thoughts and opinions. - Best regards.
I agree that all of those things COULD have an impact, but they haven't to date. MNKD's only substantive partnership since the Sanofi termination was for Brazil, and that didn't provide a single penny in up-front money that would enable MNKD to pay down debt or use for company operations. It's easy to ponder what could have positive impact for the company. The possibilities are limitless. Instead, I prefer to focus on what HAS occurred in the past, and use that as somewhat of an indicator as to what will likely happen in the future. Using that formula, I expect only scripts to have any real impact on the bottom line. Ultimately, it's sales that matter and nothing else. Same could be said for negatives... hence being in shareholder purgatory.
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Post by dreamboatcruise on Jan 19, 2018 13:56:39 GMT -5
Yea, I was hopeful that the Deerfield debt deal date of the 15th would peg the sp at $3.25, of course accompanied by magical news which was the reason for the deal and date in the first place, bringing the sp even higher by today....SO,, in addition to my worthless options from the past 18 months, I also have plenty of $3.00 expiring today, worthless... Clearly a higher power overruled and $2.50 was the peg. Only question now is, with all the PUTS also expiring today, what happens now? Was the sp being held up to $2.50 or being capped at $2.50.... script #s aren’t helping. Best not to imagine there is something to read between the lines. Next real event we know is coming is announcement of earnings. It would appear that it will include admission that guidance was missed. Is that baked into share price or will there be a negative reaction? MNKD could give strong forward guidance and project break-even as they've said they would, but will that be taken seriously if they've just announced a guidance miss. Scripts will continue to grow slowly, but that I'm sure is baked into price.
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SEC
Jan 19, 2018 13:42:22 GMT -5
peppy likes this
Post by dreamboatcruise on Jan 19, 2018 13:42:22 GMT -5
New payment schedule (from 1/19/18 SEC filing):
$5 million due May-2018 and $25 million due by the end of July-2018 ($10M must be applied to the Dec-2019 Tranche B and Tranche 4) before being applied to the Tranche 4 in July-2018).
Way to go, Steve! You da' Man! Mike has gotten us to the stat study release. Study Comparing Prandial Insulin Aspart vs. Technosphere Insulin in Patients With Type 1 Diabetes on Multiple Daily Injections: Investigator-Initiated A Real-life Pilot Study—STAT Study (STAT) clinicaltrials.gov/ct2/show/NCT03143816 -------------------------- in the mean time, Dexcom is hitting my TV screen hard, I haven't seen the dreamboat. Who is covered under Medicare? According to CMS, therapeutic CGM may be covered by Medicare when all of the following criteria are met: The beneficiary has diabetes mellitus; and, The beneficiary has been using a home blood glucose monitor (BGM) and performing frequent (four or more times a day) BGM testing; and, The beneficiary is insulin- treated with 3 or more daily injections (MDI) of insulin or a continuous subcutaneous insulin infusion (CSII) pump; and, The beneficiary's insulin treatment regimen requires frequent adjustments by the beneficiary on the basis of therapeutic CGM testing results. Within six (6) months prior to ordering the CGM, the beneficiary had an in-person visit with the treating practitioner to evaluate their diabetes control and determine that the above criteria are met; and, Every six (6) months following the initial prescription of the CGM, the beneficiary has an in-person visit with the treating practitioner to assess adherence to their CGM regimen and diabetes treatment plan. In order to be included in this category, the system must be defined as therapeutic CGM, meaning you can make treatment decisions using the device. Note: Under the current ruling, the beneficiary may NOT use their smart phone to display glucose data and still be eligible for reimbursement for the purchase of a therapeutic CGM: you cannot use the Dexcom CGM app to display glucose data and be eligible for reimbursement from Medicare. ---------------- once all we old people can see our blood glucose levels and get the stat studies? Hopefully this is not applied too literally.
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Post by dreamboatcruise on Jan 18, 2018 19:13:23 GMT -5
Nice to see a strong speculative play in the inhalation arena. It would take a whole lot more than $1.65B for a BP to acquire MNKD. Just saying... akemp, respectfully, you're very far off in your thinking. Right now a $6 offer would be accepted in a heartbeat. Don't fool yourself, and don't fool others. Didn't you read what MNHOLDEM had to say? $6, please! I'm with you in spirit if not exactly details. I think it would need to be a price a bit over 52-week high before I'd have high confidence it would be seriously considered. Though I also think a moot point. No one is offering nearly that much at this point.
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Post by dreamboatcruise on Jan 18, 2018 18:40:19 GMT -5
this is the Toujeo commercial I see here several times a day. multiple times a day today, morning Joe, nightly news and I have two flat screens in my view, sometimes the commercial runs at the same time on two channels. Yes, that Toujeo commercial is annoying! How they got Earth Wind and Fire to allow one of their largest hits to be connected to some goofy guy trying to dance around is way beyond me! One thing is true though, The song gets your attention, and now, here we are discussing it (whether good or bad) talking about their product. People discussing your product is the goal of any commercial! So, the bottom line is that their commercial worked! Whether we like it or not! GLTA! True if one remembers the name of the product.
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Post by dreamboatcruise on Jan 18, 2018 16:15:15 GMT -5
As I recall Mnkd was once valued between $3B and $4B not that long ago, although it now seems like ages ago... I would be very happy with a 3B valuation within the next 12 to 18 months. With our current valuation at $298m as of the close today that would represent a 10 fold increase in pps share closed at $2.51 today or $25.10 at a $3B valuation. I would expect most of us would be very happy with that... GLTAL's!!! That's assuming zero further dilution to get us to that valuation. $3B would be on upper end of my range and I'd put time range of more like 24 to 36 months, but the no further dilution I would give near zero chance of being true. Would dilution cut that $25 to $20 or to $12.50, I couldn't predict at this point.
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Post by dreamboatcruise on Jan 18, 2018 16:10:03 GMT -5
I dislike both the Toujeo and the Tresiba commercials.
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Post by dreamboatcruise on Jan 17, 2018 20:17:40 GMT -5
It would have to be Mannkind buying Sanofi for it to read "Mannkind Corporations". That would require a pretty big loan. Didn't you get the memo? If Sanofi, Mannkind Corporation SIf Amgen, Mannkind Corporation AIf Merck, Mannkind Corporation MIf J&J, Mannkind Corporation JIf Apple, Mannkind Corporation AI have been holding this for way too long. Trying to lighten up my (others too!) mood :-) Well, there certainly is still a malevolent phantom S(anofi) hanging onto MNKD that seems hard to shake.
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Post by dreamboatcruise on Jan 17, 2018 20:09:29 GMT -5
There has been a lot of discussion on what can and cannot be said in advertising, as regulated by FDA. I just saw a Tresiba commercial. I know I've seen it tons of times before because that annoying "Tresiba Ready" sing song is so annoying, but I guess I've never really paid attention. One thing that caught my attention this time is the following statement...
"Tresiba works like your body's insulin, releases slow and steady."
I've always been skeptical of jumping ahead of real science with regards to claims of "works just like a pancreas," but if Novo gets away with this in an advert it certainly seems like MNKD should be able to have some claim about Afrezza "working like your body's insulin at mealtime, with quick onset and fast clearance." That statement, while certainly being incomplete regarding physiology, would seem to be as true as Novo's statement.
Of course Novo can much more easily afford remaking a commercial (and worst case paying a fine) if FDA were to object.
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Post by dreamboatcruise on Jan 17, 2018 14:52:44 GMT -5
In kinda looks like we have been hacked. I am sure the administrators will remove the posts shortly. It was a brand new account, so not a lot of security measures that can prevent that, short of requirement for notarized identification before granting approval for accounts. Fight back! Boycott Russia. Drink Tito's.
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