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Post by agedhippie on Nov 11, 2023 12:00:21 GMT -5
Do hedge funds and other institutional investors have the ability to see what Mike is doing on the ATM thru the market makers? That would explain the rising short interest and the fall below the $4 pps even prior to this Qtrs call. No. That is confidential and very heavily protected. That suits the market because the one thing that scares traders rigid is the ability of others to front run their orders. Depending on the algorithm used to place the ATM orders, and given a big enough sample set, it may be possible to infer when the ATM is used. I am not really sure it would be possible, and you would need access to real tick data (expensive!) rather than aggregated tick data which is what most of the world has used since the mid 90s when tick feed volume became insanely huge.
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Post by agedhippie on Nov 11, 2023 11:42:48 GMT -5
It's not that you are using a different kind of insulin, it's that you are adding more insulin. If you have a relative deficiency caused by insulin resistance (ie. you use insulin less effectively) then adding more insulin to top up works. David Brown is correct. They already have a ton of "insulin" but its not working. However when we give them a different insulin it does. It not volume of insulin. Its that its a different insulin than their body is releasing... This is pure fantasy and medically groundless.
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Post by agedhippie on Nov 10, 2023 22:23:55 GMT -5
... At one point he said T2s have too much insulin in the blood and could not understand why we give them another form of insulin. He should have asked why is the insulin they have in their blood not working but yet another type will. ... It's not that you are using a different kind of insulin, it's that you are adding more insulin. If you have a relative deficiency caused by insulin resistance (ie. you use insulin less effectively) then adding more insulin to top up works.
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Post by agedhippie on Nov 10, 2023 18:29:25 GMT -5
After the 3Q conference call, MNKD stock was walked down in a VERY orderly fashion to levels just below $3.50. The stock chart showed very little intraday volatility. Looks to me that 2 or more market-makers were playing catch with each other and slowly walking it down. Some have suggested that they're helping short-sellers exit/cover their short. I would submit that the damage is being done by whoever sold calls expiring on November 17. Look at the option chain. There are 11,609 contracts that strike at $3.50 or higher. Coincidence? I think the call writers are just getting a head-start at insuring those options expire worthless. By starting a week early, maybe they're hoping no one notices the manipulation. Is this legal? If it is, then it shouldn't be. Would be interested in other opinions. If some have suggested that market makers are walking down the price then some have misconceptions about how the process works. Aside from that not being in the market makers interest, market makers don't care in the slightest about shorts or longs as they make their money on the spread and not the price action. It is illegal and the SEC monitor specifically for that which market makers know. As for the options - if you can tell what's motivating buyers and sellers you have a golden future ahead of you. At a guess though the 17th is a monthly option so those tend to be longer term positions. That being the case a fair number of those calls at $4.50, but definitely $5.00 and up are people writing covered calls and that is distorting your view. The battleground is $4.00 and $3.50. This is little to do with manipulation, and much more to do with UTHR giving an odd result on DPI, and there being no near term catalyst for MNKD. The price didn't start dropping after the MNKD call, it started dropping after the UTHR call.
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Post by agedhippie on Nov 10, 2023 11:41:37 GMT -5
Wegovy and Zepbound beat Saxenda hands down for weight loss and they are once weekly injectables. The problem is they are too damn expensive and give people big belly aches so people stop using in a year and then gain back the weight. People stop taking them because they have lost the weight they wanted to lose. This isn't anorexia. They will gain the weight back over time once they stop at which point they take the drug again. This of it more as a maintenance regimen. GLP-1 is a non-starter. It doesn't fit the company vision, and the theory is tenuous. Mike is looking for proven drugs with little competition in the lung area. If he dives off into sidelines like GLP-1 then the analysts are not going to like it - they want focus.
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Post by agedhippie on Nov 9, 2023 18:20:37 GMT -5
Does anyone know what happened with the lawsuit involving a former UTHR employee and the alleged theft of trade secrets? It's still out there. It doesn't have any impact on Tyvaso-DPI/Yutrepia so there is not a lot of attention. My suspicion is that it gets settled before it goes to court.
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Post by agedhippie on Nov 9, 2023 9:25:04 GMT -5
Maybe this question is for agedhippie, but for the hearing on December 4th with UTHR vs LQDA, is there going to be an answer that day or does it take several months for a decision? In the slight chance UTHR wins I'm assuming that's game over for LQDA? He must have missed the question. Yes Yes, I missed it and you are correct. Would it be game over for LQDA? Mostly. It would force them to pivot away from Yutrepia for the remaining term of the patent, so three years, and to focus on their other drugs. They may abandon Yutrepia entirely in that case, but my suspicion is not - it's a sunk cost and they may as well launch even if they only get a fraction of the market as it will recover some costs.
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Post by agedhippie on Nov 8, 2023 21:40:32 GMT -5
...Neither pumps adjust after you treat lows and it takes some time for them to register that you have treated the low blood sugar. So they keep sending alerts to say you are low. ... You run out of areas to put your pump port. It has to be changed every three days and the CGM every ten. The build up of scar tissue is pretty bad. You are always attached to tubes. They get caught on everything and will pull out. There are some other pumps that are tubeless but they are quite clunky and would not stay on long with my work, and you have to wear a Fanny pack to hold all your wireless truild ansmitters. The adhesives don’t stay on well at all and require me to buy other out covers to try to help them stay on. Even then it is still so easy to get caught on clothing etc. The cost of all of these things is insane but I think that is all healthcare Thanks for the post. I was wondering about the Tandem because it only does corrections every hour and it sounds like that lag is problematic. The absorption issue is an area I would have heavily focused on if I was selling Afrezza. People fixate on the needles and speed, but predictable absorption beats those hands down from a real world point of view. If you are getting variable absorption your CGM could be significantly off from where you are about to be (there may or may not be a 60pt drop out there...) I would have to go with tubeless pumps although the ability to physically disconnect the pump with a tubed pump is nice. But catching the tubing on a door handle and having it attempt to rip out the site... That hurts. I have had a pump before (an Animas back when J&J made them) and my reason for getting that was the build quality of the Medtronic pumps. The 780G is meant to be better and that's the one insurers like you taking as Medtronic rebates part of the cost to the insurer if you don't hit certain metrics.
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Post by agedhippie on Nov 8, 2023 18:31:05 GMT -5
Maybe this question is for agedhippie, but for the hearing on December 4th with UTHR vs LQDA, is there going to be an answer that day or does it take several months for a decision? In the slight chance UTHR wins I'm assuming that's game over for LQDA? There could be an answer within a week, but I think the chance of that is vanishingly small. It's more likely to take two or three months, probably three given the holidays.
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Post by agedhippie on Nov 8, 2023 18:28:35 GMT -5
Aged - your endo probably heard of the INHALE-3 and how everyone wanted to jump off the pump and get in on this trial. Maybe your endo is getting concerned they won't be selling enough pumps and the free Bahama trips will be ending. Have they mentioned afrezza causing ELS (Exploding Lung Syndrome) lately? What are they saying now about afrezza's lung safety? I take it this is just trolling because it can't be serious.
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Post by agedhippie on Nov 8, 2023 18:27:08 GMT -5
If you have better data than 2021, please share. Look at this paper - Real-World Performance of the MiniMed™ 780G System: First Report of Outcomes from 4120 Users. Those TIR numbers are interesting because they are in the real world and not a trial (trials usually get better results than the real world). Trust me, people will have an issue with being woken up in the middle of the night on a regular basis. The suggestion to aggressively dose basal shows a lack of practical understanding about how basal works and it's implications.
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Post by agedhippie on Nov 8, 2023 18:14:24 GMT -5
I would be curious as to which pumps and what the issues are. I had a meeting today with my endo and he was pushing pumps very heavily, especially the Medtronic 780G. I am procrastinating about going back to a pump after several years, but if they are still problematic... Perhaps… time to give Afrezza a try, even as part of your regimen? You’ve explained it multiple times, I respect that and apologize for suggesting something that’s none of my business. Just selfishness on my part as I can’t help wondering what your experience and feedback would be if you tried it. I am curious, but I know I wouldn't be able to stick with the regimen in the long term. People can tolerate different degrees of interaction with their diabetes and I am at the lower end.
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Post by agedhippie on Nov 7, 2023 23:08:22 GMT -5
I have two friends on new pumps and are always having issues with them. One goes to the hospital once every couple months it seams. I personally know nothing about them.... I would be curious as to which pumps and what the issues are. I had a meeting today with my endo and he was pushing pumps very heavily, especially the Medtronic 780G. I am procrastinating about going back to a pump after several years, but if they are still problematic...
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Post by agedhippie on Nov 7, 2023 17:27:04 GMT -5
When I am talking about aggressive I mean aggressive. Since all the PWDs will be wearing a CGM I doubt any will go low during fasting. I would also be surprised if we have a lot of "rookies" in this trial. ... I wouldn't expect many rookies either which is why you are not going to get aggressive basal dosing. People tend to get irritable when their CGM wakes them up in the middle of the night to eat glucose tablets because they dosed basal "aggressively". You dose the correct dose, this is really 101 stuff. You also need newer trial data. That article looked at 2014 to 2021, pumps have come a long way in the last couple of years and that's what endos will be comparing with.
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Post by agedhippie on Nov 7, 2023 8:29:52 GMT -5
... Will 1 shot of basal beat the AID, fat chance. Can afrezza make up the difference? Afrezza will have to be damn good since its only working 6 hrs of the 24 hour day. We will see. There are a few things they can do so afrezza/Tresiba wins but they will need to be a bit proactive using the CGM and aggressive with Tresiba while side-stepping the hypos. Being aggressive with basal and side stepping hypos are mutually exclusive. It's a rookie mistake because part of your mealtime glucose is now covered by basal and not meal time insulin. That will screw you because if you have gaps without eating (a late lunch for example) there is a significant risk that you will go low because the basal is steadily chewing through your blood glucose at a constant rate. This is why you do basal testing to get that right.
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