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Post by compound26 on Aug 6, 2015 22:40:23 GMT -5
Thanks for posting, rozale. It seems that you needs a relatively large dose of Afrezza, which brings up an interesting question. How are the various cartridge priced? Surely a 12u is not 3 times a 4u cartridge. Considering COGS and the fact that one cannot just split a larger cartridge I would hope SNY can mitigate this problem. Would even the best insurance cover Afrezza in these quantities? Also I hope that we are beginning to see that an Afrezza regimen can lower insulin resistance, so that less insulin is needed. I think the 12U will definitively help. It appears the price of Afrezza is not much related to the size of cartridge. Per this website: 30 (4 unit) and 60 (8 unit) cartridges, totally 600 units, costs $290.59 at Kroger; 60 (4 unit) and 30 (8 unit) cartridges, totally 480 units, costs $263.97 at Kroger; 90 (4 unit) cartridges, totally 360 units, costs $237.32 at Kroger. www.goodrx.com/afrezza#/?filter-location=&coords=&label=Afrezza&form=kit&strength=30+(4+unit)+and+60+(8+unit)+cartridges+of+4+units+and+8+units&quantity=1.0&qty-custom=Based on this, I would roughly guess that, for 90 (12 unit) cartridges, totally 1080 units, when available, will probably cost around $360.
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Post by compound26 on Aug 6, 2015 10:05:21 GMT -5
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Post by compound26 on Jul 30, 2015 15:59:10 GMT -5
My guess is that they didn't talk about Afrezza because the revenue is not material to the overall results of the company. Even if they thought things were going to plan, there's nothing really new to say, is there? It's just business as usual for a large drug company with many irons in the fire. I would add to that with the following; if the slow start would likely be perceived as a negative by Wall Street, why bring it up at all? Wait until they have something to talk about... That's what I would do. Agree. That was what I thought as well, i.e., to bring it up will only invite negative comments.
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Post by compound26 on Jul 29, 2015 16:07:56 GMT -5
Some very good posts on this subject; dudley's above is especially good, thanks dudley! Yes, there was always going to be dilution, but Matt and others were hopeful that the exchange price for the debt would have been at least around $6, instead of where it is. Also, there's that provision in the news release that allows MNKD to change the floor price on a day to day basis over the ten day period. So, if conversion isn't happening because the price is too low, it seems MNKD can either pay off the debt with cash or allow for a lower floor price. I think I have a bit less of a problem with Matt's recent claims. To me, the interesting thing will be whether this stock can be (will be) manipulated above or below $4.39, which was my estimate of the floor price in my earlier, still sleepy-headed post. I believe the next ten trading days will be trench warfare - keep low and keep that helmet fastened tightly. Baba, I've done a quick calc elsewhere and arrived at an exchange price floor of $4.41. This price is critical, because the way I read the PR, the note holders are obligated to convert one-tenth of their shares each day so long as the VWAP that day is not below the exchange price floor. Give today's pricing/volume, it would appear that 10% of those shares are now converted, probably at a price of $4.27 +/- (assumed VWAP today of $4.46 x 95.75%). The floor is around $4.55 to 4.6. The $4.41 number you referred to above (or the $4.36-4.39 number other people have talked about) is 95.75% of the floor. So for today, the daily VWAP is below the floor price currently in effect. Thus, it appears the note-holders have no obligation to convert for today. If they do choose to covert, they will convert at 95.75% of the floor (i.e.., at $4.36-4.41 range).
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Post by compound26 on Jul 29, 2015 15:39:18 GMT -5
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Post by compound26 on Jul 29, 2015 12:29:56 GMT -5
I did say it's a rough approximation. $4.75, $4.85, $4.95, is 10 cents, 20 cents, or whatever worth quibbling about? Actually it is so convoluted that it takes reading a few times. While original "floor price" will be 94.5% of VWAP for yesterday (call that 4.58 if the VWAP yesterday were about 4.85). THEN for the convert price each day you take GREATER of 95.75% of VWAP for the day (so far today let's be generous and say .9575 of 4.50 = 4.31) or 95.75% of "floor price". That would be .9575 of 4.58, or 4.39. So, based on today's action we convert a couple million dollars worth at 4.39 or maybe we don't convert any because it's so ugly. Any other opinions? tbone, I agree with your reading. I think the noteholders have the option to covert as long as the actual share price of the day is greater than the floor price. If it is not the case, the noteholders have the option to not convert. In other words, if they think the floor price is too high (compared with the actual share price), they can choose not to convert. "The holders will not be obligated to complete any stock-for-notes exchange for any date on which the daily VWAP is below the floor price then in effect." Anyway, it is convoluted language. Also, it appears right now the market (and the shorts) is attempting to drive down the share price to be around 95.75% of "floor price" (which you calculated to be around .9575 of 4.58, or 4.39). So if no major news regarding MNKD or Afrezza comes out from SNY tomorrow, the market (and the shorts) will probably peg the share price to this level for the next 10 trading days or so. What this means is that $57 million debt will be swapped for 12-13 million of shares (instead of 9 million of shares we originally have anticipated). So we have about 1% dilution that we have not priced in previously (but fully priced in at today's PPS). That is fine. And the low PPS is only a temporary issue. The big picture is still how well will Afrezza perform over the time.
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Post by compound26 on Jul 29, 2015 12:24:29 GMT -5
baba, I also don't like what Matt said. Technically speaking, he did not say that there was absolutely no dilution whatsoever, though he kind of incinuated that there will not be dilution. I do not like that sneaky way, and in hindsight he knew what he was talking about, because these type of deals do not happen overnight. His credibility is questionable. Could he be "trading" MNKD? I agree with what bretzyboy said above: "Figured this news would light the fires on both sides of the fence. As for the side I'm on, I'm glad the debt issue is settled, Matt P. did not mislead in anyway. It's still about the product and the market it will reach. This day will mean very little if at all six months after the relabeling." I do not think Matt is in anyway misleading. Even if he knew what he is going to do back in June, what can say? He has to somehow answer the questions regarding no dilution without giving out too much details about his plans. As some of our friends have posted, he did give some clue as to what he might be doing. It is easy to blame Matt for what he has said or done or question him why he hasn't done x or y. However, at the current stage, I do not think Matt has a lot of options to choose from in the first place. So what Matt has done is essentially removed $57 million debt for a minimum dilution (which by the way does not add to short-able shares). It should have minimum impact in PPS if the shorts have not taken advantage of the news to drive down the PPS. Things haven't changed much other than a $57 million debt swap for a minimum dilution (which by the way does not add to short-able shares). It is still about the product. We've got a winning product. The key lies in how to transform the winning product into a blockbuster.
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Post by compound26 on Jul 29, 2015 10:55:26 GMT -5
Compound26, The answer to your question is yes. The $4.85 is a rough approximation, based on yesterday's trading and the formula spelled out in the pr. Great. Thanks! greg.
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Post by compound26 on Jul 29, 2015 10:21:56 GMT -5
All have to do is keep pps above $10 until Aug. 11- only 5.5m dilution. If shorts keep stock at $2 for more then 10 days, 23m. Something to fight over. So AF was correct about debt and dilution? Say it ain't so Matt, say it ain't so... There is a floor of around $4.85 on the conversion price. Please read the press release more carefully. greg, where did you get the $4.85 number? Is that equal to 94.5% of the daily VWAP on July 28, 2015 as referred to in Mannkind's press release? The exchange price for each such date will reflect the greater of 95.75% of the volume-weighted average price (VWAP) of MannKind's common stock for such date and 95.75% of a floor price, which floor price will initially be 94.5% of the daily VWAP on July 28, 2015, but may be adjusted by MannKind for any trading day by providing notice to the holders prior to 9:00 a.m. Eastern Time on such day. The holders will not be obligated to complete any stock-for-notes exchange for any date on which the daily VWAP is below the floor price then in effect. In the event MannKind modifies the initial floor price for any trading day during the exchange period, MannKind will promptly publish the modified floor price on the Investor Relations page of its corporate website (http://investors.mannkindcorp.com/index.cfm). - See more at: investors.mannkindcorp.com/releasedetail.cfm?ReleaseID=924457#sthash.wxZh8UA7.dpuf
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Post by compound26 on Jul 28, 2015 15:45:21 GMT -5
Here are a few things to consider: - Afrezza is trademarked so essentially they could send a cease and desist in the future and the domain/website would have to be shutdown or turned over if they want to enforce it. - WordPress is a great platform to build a website on and it's free. If you use WordPress.com there is no hosting charges or you can use a stand alone version on your own hosting account. The other benefit of using WordPress.com would be the link building can usually be done faster w/o the fear of getting penalized by Google. - one of the biggest issues I see is Adam's/others stupid articles sitting in the first page results of Afrezza because the street carries a lot of link juice. It would be great to bump those but it would take a lot of firepower to do so. Even afrezzauser is on the second page at the bottom. Hopefully some of Sanofi's pages about Afrezza start to bump the worthless articles on the first page of results. MNKD pro boards sits a the top of the 3rd page of results, so it might even be better to use the board for the article is some way. Or as an insta blog on seeking alpha as mentioned above as Rob's latest article is sitting on the middle of page 2 of the SERPs. Although I think it's a great article & idea, it would require a lot of work (and no guarantee) to get it in the top 20 results on its own site. JMHO. harryx1, thanks! These are great suggestions. For your information, I just did a google search for "Afrezza" and noticed that "Afrezza.com" is actually in the first two listings in the search result. (See attached screen shot for the search result). The first being an "Ad" of the website and the second being the website itself. Does that mean Afrezza.com is being advertised on Google? Not sure when this started. Note that Rob's new article on Seeking Alpha is also in the first page. However, thestreet.com old report (dated June 9, 2015) still ranks higher than Rob's article. Attachment Deleted
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Post by compound26 on Jul 28, 2015 14:59:53 GMT -5
I think ML (Granger)'s case also illustrate this regenerative effect of Afrezza. Here is what she says (under the user name: bob_marylou_granger) on tudiabetes.org: “I have been a Type 1 diabetic for 58 years. After 52 years of thousands of injections, I became needle-phobic. The OUCH you think is minor to you is not minor to millions of others. ….Spent 5 1/2 years in a research study trial using AFREZZA inhaled insulin. I have not had to take an insulin injection during those 5 1/2 years. Believe me, I know that is not a cure. But for now it is the best out there for those of us struggling physically and emotionally with injections.” www.tudiabetes.org/forum/t/insulin-independence-revolutionary-phase-3-trial-giving-type-1-diabetics-the-promise-of-a-needle-free-life/46721/15Here is what she says in this forum: "When I first joined the MannKind trial, I was injecting Lantus in the morning at breakfast and inhaling Exubera with each meal. Before Exubera had been taken off the market, I had stockpiled quite a large supply. It could be stored on a shelf at room temperature, no refrigeration was needed. In the beginning, I still took my Lantus at breakfast and then began using the Technosphere {Afrezza as it is now called} with each meal. My BG levels began to drop. My doctor kept lowering the Lantus until he suggested I drop the injections completely. It took me a couple of days to work up my courage, but the idea of not taking ANY shots was worth it. It worked for a few weeks, and then my BG levels started to rise. Terribly disappointed, I went back on the morning Lantus shots and inhaling at each meal. Shortly, my BG levels dropped again, and my doctor took me off injections again. From then on, NO SHOTS!!! No one can explain it --- it just is! ML " mnkd.proboards.com/thread/2135/recent-tudiabetes-diabetics-poll#ixzz3hDZioOee
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Post by compound26 on Jul 28, 2015 10:56:33 GMT -5
First, I wrote a similar (smaller) article in SA that got rejected. I posted it as an instablog. Instablog also gets hits; it does appear in google search. You can do that too. SA wants opinions (not just a collection of facts) that conclude with buy/sell/hold thesis for a publication. They enforce it for first time posters and take it easy for established authors. I wonder about the usefulness of setting up a new website for Afrezza when we've so much info already in public space. If you still decide to do it, you can do it low cost by registering a domain and then use google's blogspot. You'll point the blogpost URL to the new domain name. Google takes care of hosting. Your total cost is $15/year. gomnkd, thanks for the suggestion. I just posted the article as an instablog. seekingalpha.com/user/6595801/instablog
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Post by compound26 on Jul 27, 2015 18:46:47 GMT -5
Great idea Mannmade and I tried to get started on that theme in a small way on Wikipedia but ran into the "promotional paranoia" police there despite only listing facts. And with Sanofi and Mannkind no doubt there are numerous legal restrictions, also the potential for the FUDster shareholder lawsuits--- Matt, Hakan, etc are basically gagged. So, nothing like a collaborative effort, maybe it would be a resource for ADHD afflicted thestreet or seekingalpha writers Thank you mssciguy... It's the marketer in me. (Spent 30 years in the business and founded two agencies which were both sold, one to NBCU.) There are so many ideas that we could collectively come up with for this site. Being able to say and do the things that Sanofi can't on their Afrezza web site because of the FDA. 1.) One idea would be to write a form letters for diabetics to give their doctors for pre-approval. Just download and give doc to sign. (Not sure if appropriate or not) 2.) Another would be to create a patient information kit for people to give their doctors who have not heard of or are not inclined to prescribe Afrezza. Actually a reformatted and perhaps shorter version of Compound's letter would be great for this. 3.) A monthly Afrezza newsletter recapping the past month's events for interested people It could become the Official "Unofficial web site for Afrezza." (Would want to be respectful of Sam's effort and work so perhaps get him involved as a consultant if he is interested) Again just more initial thoughts on the subject. This is Compound's letter and Liane's idea so I leave it up to them lead this discussion and shape the direction and tone of the site. Also as a recovering Lawyer (have not practiced since 1982,) we would want to make sure we vet all content properly, perhaps get Sanofi's and/or Mannkind's blessing. And lastly then we could hook up to Google's ad network (not sure if I am serious about this one idea just yet) and with whatever revenue we make we purchase shares of Mannkind and at some point after Afrezza becomes a blockbuster we donate the proceeds to a diabetic organization in Al's name. mannmade, great ideas. Let's keep the discussion going. I believe with the collective efforts of the members of this board, we will be able to achieve something. Let's get the project started and then improve it as we go along. Agree that anything we post on such a website should be fact-based and non-promotional (let the facts speak for themselves).
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Post by compound26 on Jul 27, 2015 17:54:37 GMT -5
How about the following: AfrezzaTheRealDeal.com Afrezzajustbreath.com freedomwithAfrezza.com Afrezzaworks.com (or Afrezzareallyworks.com) Afrezzaisamazing.com Afrezzaislifechanging.com mannmade, all of them are great choices to me. I like something with "freedom" attached to it. How about AfrezzaTheFreedom.com? I also like Afrezzajustbreathe.com as you suggested.
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Post by compound26 on Jul 27, 2015 17:47:54 GMT -5
I think compound's article would actually make for a great web site, all by itself. Let's see if we can come up with a good domain name for a board-sponsored pro-Afrezza web site. I'll personally take care of the domain registration, and perhaps if there are any members who are web developers and are willing to program the site pro-bono, we can get something going really fast! At the low end of the "effort spectrum", Word can save the document in HTML format and that can just go up on the site as the home page... BD, that sounds great! I have been thinking along the same line in the last few weeks (that we can create a separate website spreading the many advantages and benefits of Afrezza to the public). In a sense, some kind of DTC campaign by the folks on this board. I think a separate (non-investor-oriented) website will definitely help in that regard. If we do have such a website, I will try to make my above article move comprehensive (by adding more links of patient testimonials) and keep it updated from time to time, and adding new stuff as appropriate. For example, a reference to that Yahoo article where it says high BG level of pregnant women negatively impact (future) students' performance in school might be good. There, we could also post links to the best (and most helpful) Afrezza-related videos on Youtube.
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