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Post by buyitonsale on Nov 1, 2018 15:04:49 GMT -5
4.4M net in Q3 18 at 121% growth YOY. Q3 19 could be almost 10M. Q3 20 could be 22M. Any guesses on Brazil sales in 2019 and 2020? Is it time to cover yet?  |
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Post by mannmade on Nov 1, 2018 15:25:34 GMT -5
Here’s my two cents from the back of my napkin regarding 2019 revenue:
1. Afrezza Net Revenue: $17m in 2018 so let’s double to $35m in 2019
2. Brazil $5m for the year
3. $25m in Uthr milestones on Trep T
So far that is $65m in what is basic company revenue on the conservative side.
Add one more molecule for $30m which mike seems confident of and mnkd is at $95m which is almost break even based on past years monthly/annual expenses and pending new allocations and additional expenses such as dtc for Afrezza and new sales positions.
If warrants kick in which they could... that is another $30m or so (with dilution)
This gets mnkd to $125m
DF is due $11.5m in May and July and that eliminates there debt and presumably the liens they hold on all of mnkd assets freeing them up for a more favorable loan if needed.
Btw, mnkd ends 2018 w $20m so really could have as much as $145m for 2019. RLS? Not sure about any other possible revenue for 2019 but feel free to comment. GLTAL’s!!!
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Post by cjm18 on Nov 1, 2018 15:31:50 GMT -5
Binder was referring to this metric. “Cost of goods sold for the third quarter of 2018 was $5.3 million resulting in a negative Afrezza gross profit of $0.9 million.” |
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Post by buyitonsale on Nov 1, 2018 15:49:33 GMT -5
Warrants are good as it's money we need but it's not revenue...
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Post by mannmade on Nov 1, 2018 15:52:18 GMT -5
Warrants are good as it's money we need but it's not revenue... Yes I know as mentioned they come with dilution. But since they are already out there with possibility of being cashed in by end of April/expiration especially if new molecule announced before then, I have included as a possible cash source for 2019. |
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Post by buyitonsale on Nov 1, 2018 15:56:29 GMT -5
Cash source yes, but the thread is about profitability...
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Post by sportsrancho on Nov 1, 2018 15:57:29 GMT -5
Here’s my two cents from the back of my napkin regarding 2019 revenue: 1. Afrezza Net Revenue: $17m in 2018 so let’s double to $35m in 2019 2. Brazil $5m for the year 3. $25m in Uthr milestones on Trep T So far that is $65m in what is basic company revenue on the conservative side. Add one more molecule for $30m which mike seems confident of and mnkd is at $95m which is almost break even based on past years monthly/annual expenses and pending new allocations and additional expenses such as dtc for Afrezza and new sales positions. If warrants kick in which they could... that is another $30m or so (with dilution) This gets mnkd to $125m DF is due $11.5m in May and July and that eliminates there debt and presumably the liens they hold on all of mnkd assets freeing them up for a more favorable loan if needed. Btw, mnkd ends 2018 w $20m so really could have as much as $145m for 2019. RLS? Not sure about any other possible revenue for 2019 but feel free to comment. GLTAL’s!!! From ST in response to this post ...... This is way too conservative.I think we'll more than double in Afrezza sales in 2019. No mention of RLS? More deals from Uther? |
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Post by mannmade on Nov 1, 2018 16:09:07 GMT -5
LOL! Actually did revise to include possible RLS but did not want to speculate on opportunities w no known support. For example mike has mentioned possibility of another molecule by early next year and we already know terms and that they are working on researching such. Whereas we have absolutely no information on RLS.
Also I mentioned that my estimate on Afrezza revenue was conservative as am not looking to over estimate. GLTAL’s!
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Post by traderdennis on Nov 1, 2018 17:46:16 GMT -5
Here’s my two cents from the back of my napkin regarding 2019 revenue: 1. Afrezza Net Revenue: $17m in 2018 so let’s double to $35m in 2019 2. Brazil $5m for the year 3. $25m in Uthr milestones on Trep T So far that is $65m in what is basic company revenue on the conservative side. Add one more molecule for $30m which mike seems confident of and mnkd is at $95m which is almost break even based on past years monthly/annual expenses and pending new allocations and additional expenses such as dtc for Afrezza and new sales positions. If warrants kick in which they could... that is another $30m or so (with dilution) This gets mnkd to $125m DF is due $11.5m in May and July and that eliminates there debt and presumably the liens they hold on all of mnkd assets freeing them up for a more favorable loan if needed. Btw, mnkd ends 2018 w $20m so really could have as much as $145m for 2019. RLS? Not sure about any other possible revenue for 2019 but feel free to comment. GLTAL’s!!! DF will get at least a additional $5MM milestone on top of the 11.5MM under your scenario for cumulative sales over %50MM |
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Post by mannmade on Nov 1, 2018 18:05:08 GMT -5
Am not sure DF will as I understand deal is tied to Afrezza revenue not Corp revenue. And don’t think they hit the necessary $50 to trigger DF milestone payment w Aftezza next year. If they do a happy problem. If I am wrong I stand corrected.
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Post by letitride on Nov 1, 2018 18:57:52 GMT -5
I listened and I heard possible gross profit next Qtr Sounds great. What sounded better was Mike talking about talking to many companies calling about technosphere and his need to pick thru those with capital vs those with out. Start lining those up and Qtr could become Qtrs real quick. Lets Go!
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Post by peppy on Nov 1, 2018 19:03:14 GMT -5
Started a new thread because this deserves it's own. Mike said we will be profitable next quarter. He didn't say we will start being profitable next quarter. Is this a 1 quarter thing due to the 1 time payment from UT? We are not going to be profitable from Afrezza sales which would be an ongoing profit. Or are we? Things look very positive. But it sounds like some of us think the runway will be infinite in another quarter. Can someone provide clarity on this? Depending on how the payment from UTHR is booked, the company should be profitable. As I read it, the $10 MM is for formulation and pre-commercial production but if the auditors don't see it that way they may make the company spread the revenue over the same number of quarters that the formulation and production work is done. Absent another UTHR type of deal, the pendulum will swing back to red in the first quarter as the company is still showing more than $20 MM per quarter in operating losses on the base business; Afrezza sales are a long way from filling that hole. Matt, you have to admit (I would think) they keep pulling rabbits out of hats. |
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Post by Deleted on Nov 1, 2018 19:10:42 GMT -5
Depending on how the payment from UTHR is booked, the company should be profitable. As I read it, the $10 MM is for formulation and pre-commercial production but if the auditors don't see it that way they may make the company spread the revenue over the same number of quarters that the formulation and production work is done. Absent another UTHR type of deal, the pendulum will swing back to red in the first quarter as the company is still showing more than $20 MM per quarter in operating losses on the base business; Afrezza sales are a long way from filling that hole. Matt, you have to admit (I would think) they keep pulling rabbits out of hats. Matt, traderdennis and all others on this board who fail to give credit to Mike and company will be but a fart in the wind soon. Mike is freaking Houdini! |
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Post by peppy on Nov 1, 2018 19:50:36 GMT -5
I listened and I heard possible gross profit next Qtr Sounds great. What sounded better was Mike talking about talking to many companies calling about technosphere and his need to pick thru those with capital vs those with out. Start lining those up and Qtr could become Qtrs real quick. Lets Go! yes. Mike C; "The story of MannKind has started to change with the closing of the United Therapeutics deal, and the announcement this week with Receptor Life Sciences closing $29 million of Series A. Additionally, we've met with several Wall Street analysts who want to get updates on the company, as well as lots of new potential institutional investors. We feel very good about the story of the company and the direction we're heading. We invested, last year, in the platform based on the feedback we heard from potential partners as we believe we could create value by moving our various Technosphere powder formulations into patients. We will seek to move several new formulations as we believe these molecules provide patients with a unique experience to manage their various disease conditions. (Afrezza) Keep in mind, our competition gives away $0.50 to $0.70 of every dollar spent in rebates to payers to ensure patient and provider access is difficult for new entrants like us. However, I believe we are moving to an outcomes-based healthcare system where interconnect care and outcomes will matter instead of volume of care. "Additionally, there was a research agreement to bring another candidate forward, that's not been disclosed, but this research agreement provides us $10 million upfront, which was provided back in September. And if this compound moves forward, it'll also bring another $30 million in milestone and licensing fees." (vancomycin? www.screencast.com/t/kqKGOXy5UBs ) "Payer access discussions have been very positive. We expect that to continue to improve, and not only improve in a way that gives us more coverage, but improve in a way to actually remove some of the restrictions and friction that happens when a doctor or a patient go to get Afrezza. We expect to see reduction in prior authorizations as we go forward in 2019 and beyond. We continue to publish the scientific data supporting Afrezza, as evidenced by our meetings just a few weeks ago at EASD and several new publications coming out as well as study readouts that we [indiscernible] and others." "In the end, we will continue to balance these needs and enhance shareholder value, which is the major focus of ours as we go forward in terms of accelerating growth. When I look at the next five years, we see nothing but positive things in front of us between the Technosphere platform molecules which we believe will bring in-licensing opportunities as well as royalties at the top as the new [indiscernible] here today, we look at Afrezza U.S. growth continuing to happen, and hopefully accelerate as we go forward. Our Afrezza international expansion is well underway, with Brazil expecting approval in Q4, and India progressing in a phase 3 trial for filing there, as well as Mexico and Canada we continue to work towards. We continue to look at our pipeline and see what can we bring in and what can we out-license, and move assets faster down the road. And finally, our pediatric program, we believe, will be pivotal in the Type 1 market as we think about 30% of the patients in Type 1 will be eligible for Afrezza when we get this approval. We continue to file this product as we go forward." Here it is, in questions and answers; Mike C: "Behind the scenes, these are not high-cost investments, they just take time. And those things are already ongoing with the team that we have. And Danbury, we're doing a phenomenal job. The ability to bring in additional partners or additional deal structures, we will always evaluate those. I would tell you I had more people calling me in the last few months than I've had time to keep up with. So I mean that just gives you some indication that there is interest in the platform, we just have to be very selective of who we're working with because a lot of times people will come to you they don't always have money backing them. And I think it's really important that we partner with people who actually have the funds to bring these things forward in a really quick way, as opposed to dance around things for years and trying to seek funding, which I know we've had some struggles on that in the past.But we believe there's several ways to capitalize to accelerate Technosphere. It's really just figuring out the right targets, and then which ones do we like versus which ones that have bigger investments with bigger returns could we partner up with. So I think you'll see some positive things in the future years on Technosphere. And on the United one, I'm excited because there really is another molecule working on, had a dual purpose. And as soon as we get clarity on the formulation work that we're doing and some of the work in early next year that could result in another collaboration agreement that would be separate from treprostinil." |
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Post by sellhighdrinklow on Nov 1, 2018 20:00:18 GMT -5
Matt, you have to admit (I would think) they keep pulling rabbits out of hats. Matt, traderdennis and all others on this board who fail to give credit to Mike and company will be but a fart in the wind soon. Mike is freaking Houdini! Mannkind has how many employees?.... I think Yahoo says 250+. They are also hiring. MNKD - is somewhere between too big to fail (kidding) and straight up on their way to the big-time. Stock is trading at less than 40-cents pre-split. You decide. Me? I'm an Afrezza user with an easy life as a type 1 now, (A1C 5.4) where before Afrezza, it was a struggle for me. I keep buying MNKD stock because...of what I just said. |
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