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Post by uvula on Dec 29, 2018 0:52:22 GMT -5
How sad that we are debating which one of our investors is the worst.
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Post by prcgorman2 on Dec 29, 2018 9:12:22 GMT -5
From what little we know it looks like cvi is worse than df. It doesn't mean mike did a bad job. He got the best deal he could. Dude remember that it was Deerfield who was operating an insider trading scheme involving confidential government information. Deerfield is complete trash, is CVI really much worse? I'm going to share some of my darker thoughts about the stock market (and the stock?). The place is full of thieves with giant salaries wearing expensive suits. I had wondered why the MNKD short interest was drifting so high. My assumption is insider trading. And, this isn't the first time the two (SI + dilution) have appeared together. Perhaps there has almost never been a MNKD shelf without it. And, I suspect this is common. It's not evildoers out to kill poor little MNKD to preserve the market for injected RAA insulin and the profits of Eli Lilly, Sanofi, and Novo Nordisk. They may be involved too and I've suspected they are. How is it 20% the quantity of sales people selling 1 drug are eclipsing the resources Sanofi had to apply? But I digress. Sadly, I think "death spiral financing" (to borrow a phrase from the loathesome Adam Fuerstein) from investment firms with locations like the Caymans are probable in the pharma industry (at least). So anyway, I expect the shorting prior to the dilution allowed CVI (or their affiliat e) to wet their beak(s) prior to trying to make some money on the sales of the new shares (and/or interest on loaning them for shorting). I'd like one of the traders (Dennis?) to weigh in and explain how the warrants help with the hedge. I can probably figure it out on my own, but would assume others would like to see that explained too.
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Post by morfu on Dec 29, 2018 9:40:10 GMT -5
Dude remember that it was Deerfield who was operating an insider trading scheme involving confidential government information. Deerfield is complete trash, is CVI really much worse? I'm going to share some of my darker thoughts about the stock market (and the stock?). The place is full of thieves with giant salaries wearing expensive suits. I had wondered why the MNKD short interest was drifting so high. My assumption is insider trading. And, this isn't the first time the two (SI + dilution) have appeared together. Perhaps there has almost never been a MNKD shelf without it. And, I suspect this is common. It's not evildoers out to kill poor little MNKD to preserve the market for injected RAA insulin and the profits of Eli Lilly, Sanofi, and Novo Nordisk. They may be involved too and I've suspected they are. How is it 20% the quantity of sales people selling 1 drug are eclipsing the resources Sanofi had to apply? But I digress. Sadly, I think "death spiral financing" (to borrow a phrase from the loathesome Adam Fuerstein) from investment firms with locations like the Caymans are probable in the pharma industry (at least). So anyway, I expect the shorting prior to the dilution allowed CVI (or their affiliat e) to wet their beak(s) prior to trying to make some money on the sales of the new shares (and/or interest on loaning them for shorting). I'd like one of the traders (Dennis?) to weigh in and explain how the warrants help with the hedge. I can probably figure it out on my own, but would assume others would like to see that explained too.
Sorry, I have to call BS on the "shorts are smarter than us insider trading".. they thought they can crush Mnkd with brute force and maybe some did make some money by bringing the share price down from about 10$ before reverse split to the 60ct or whatever we saw earlier this year. But they did not succeed! And unless we start giving shares away for cheap, they will have to bleed badly for or! That is why I would like to see a good explanation from their management for their current decision to give out these shares .. in my opinion without any current need! My conspiracy is, that "some friend" was helped! This 20% dilution is from the market value of a fully profitable company a couple of years from now.. I would really like to know a good reason for this! All this blabla of "how upset someone is" or "how good Mike runs the company" aside, he works for us, the shareholders, and cant burn money like that without a good explanation.. However, I hope the big players remember this next time he asks for another ridiculous amount of shares to dilute!
As for Deerfield and CVI.. that are two different business models.. Deerfield was lending out money for high rates and decided to cash out in shares rather than bankrupt the company, which in generous I guess, but was mainly in their own interest, CVI plays the market, aka tries to buy something under value cheaply or sell something high (no necessarily in that order) I claim (without proof), that Deerfield was not playing the market, they just wanted to get their money back.
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Post by slugworth008 on Dec 29, 2018 9:41:35 GMT -5
It was Reshaped alrighty
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Post by matt on Dec 29, 2018 9:55:20 GMT -5
If I'm reading this right they'll likely hold onto these shares. Hopefully they'll keep the warrants, execute them later in the year and keep the resulting shares as well. Our short friends will have to cover at a much higher price after all. And that makes my day. Generally the hedge fund playbook works in the opposite direction. The fund buys a share/warrant "unit" at a deep discount to the market and then sits quietly while the price recovers a bit. When the price retraces to a higher price level, they quietly sell off the shares at a profit and keep the warrants. If everything works out as planned, the net proceeds from the stock sales offset the price paid for the unit and any transaction fees. At that point the hedge fund has recovered 100% of the cash they invested, and maybe even a little bit more, and they still own the warrants. The hedge fund can now do what they like going forward. If MNKD takes a huge upswing, they can sell or exercise the warrants to capture the price increase. If MNKD trades in a range with volatile price action, the fund can play the volatility by shorting the stock when high knowing that in the very worst case they can cover with new shares by exercising the warrant, essentially a covered short position. More likely, the very worst case does not happen and the stock price just bounces up and down in a volatile range, the fund can act like any other trader and take profits while still having the downside protection afforded by the warrants. Finally, if the MNKD price totally collapses the fund loses nothing because they have already recaptured 100% of their original cost through the early share sales. That is why they are called hedge funds; all the downside risk has been hedged away and only the neutral and upside payoffs remain. Hedge funds love these deals because the exact same equity can be used to buy up warrants in many companies. If the hedge fund sells the shares early in the process to recoup their cash investment, then the warrants are "free" is a sense. The fund can take the exact same capital and do a similar deal with company 2, company 3 and company 4. The fund doesn't much care which of the companies turns into a big winner just so long as one of them does. Do enough of these deals, and one of them always turns out to be a gem. Poster KC listed 41 other investments earlier in this thread so with MNKD in the mix that makes 42; if only 10-15% of those turn into big winners then there are 4-6 big paydays ahead for the fund and the fund doesn't care what happens to the other 36-38 companies; those are just battlefield casualties of the hedge wars. Finally, realize that a 13G filing is based on the investor's potential ownership and not their actual ownership. Hypothetically, if I owned zero shares in MNKD but 50 million warrants, I would have to file a Form 13 because of my "potential" ownership. Filing a Form 13, except in cases of a "street sweep" in pursuit of an acquisition, conveys no information about the true intentions of the purchaser. Normally a Form 13 doesn't tell you anything useful except that a particular new player has entered the field of play. The information comes later while observing the game. The first time you will know what the player is up to comes in mid-February when all institutional managers have to file Form 13F showing their holding as of the last day of 2018 (the report is due 45 days after calendar year end). If CVI holds an amount of shares that is different than what they just disclosed in the 13G filing, then you will have a hint as to what their true intensions are. Even more instructive will be the 13F they file in mid-May (45 days after calendar end of Q1).
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Post by sayhey24 on Dec 29, 2018 10:34:34 GMT -5
From what little we know it looks like cvi is worse than df. It doesn't mean mike did a bad job. He got the best deal he could. Dude remember that it was Deerfield who was operating an insider trading scheme involving confidential government information. Deerfield is complete trash, is CVI really much worse? Mango - sometimes you have to do business with these companies and do what you need to do to keep the lights on. I did a deal with a similar firm years ago and it was not the funding but rather the guy the fund brought in which was the issue.
MNKD is in a very interesting position. If they were a Harvard Case Study and I knew little about diabetes and afrezza and TS, I would probably say they have little chance. However, we are seeing slow but steady script increases and now have a few updates to the SOC. Mike is making progress.
The bottom line is afrezza is like no other diabetes treatment and Mike is in a unique position to really turn this around. He may really earn his CEO of the year award in 2019.
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Post by theshiv on Dec 29, 2018 10:45:25 GMT -5
Well said. A few ugly choices to keep the lights on until liftoff is precisely what is happening. The script numbers and other things we are not privy to are encouraging for the future.
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Post by itellthefuture777 on Dec 29, 2018 10:53:20 GMT -5
Once we pass $150 a share..shorts will not be in control..at $500 a share..they will be hiding in caves..
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Post by morfu on Dec 29, 2018 11:55:13 GMT -5
If I'm reading this right they'll likely hold onto these shares. Hopefully they'll keep the warrants, execute them later in the year and keep the resulting shares as well. Our short friends will have to cover at a much higher price after all. And that makes my day. Generally the hedge fund playbook works in the opposite direction. The fund buys a share/warrant "unit" at a deep discount to the market and then sits quietly while the price recovers a bit. When the price retraces to a higher price level, they quietly sell off the shares at a profit and keep the warrants. If everything works out as planned, the net proceeds from the stock sales offset the price paid for the unit and any transaction fees. At that point the hedge fund has recovered 100% of the cash they invested, and maybe even a little bit more, and they still own the warrants. The hedge fund can now do what they like going forward. If MNKD takes a huge upswing, they can sell or exercise the warrants to capture the price increase. If MNKD trades in a range with volatile price action, the fund can play the volatility by shorting the stock when high knowing that in the very worst case they can cover with new shares by exercising the warrant, essentially a covered short position. More likely, the very worst case does not happen and the stock price just bounces up and down in a volatile range, the fund can act like any other trader and take profits while still having the downside protection afforded by the warrants. Finally, if the MNKD price totally collapses the fund loses nothing because they have already recaptured 100% of their original cost through the early share sales. That is why they are called hedge funds; all the downside risk has been hedged away and only the neutral and upside payoffs remain. Hedge funds love these deals because the exact same equity can be used to buy up warrants in many companies. If the hedge fund sells the shares early in the process to recoup their cash investment, then the warrants are "free" is a sense. The fund can take the exact same capital and do a similar deal with company 2, company 3 and company 4. The fund doesn't much care which of the companies turns into a big winner just so long as one of them does. Do enough of these deals, and one of them always turns out to be a gem. Poster KC listed 41 other investments earlier in this thread so with MNKD in the mix that makes 42; if only 10-15% of those turn into big winners then there are 4-6 big paydays ahead for the fund and the fund doesn't care what happens to the other 36-38 companies; those are just battlefield casualties of the hedge wars. Finally, realize that a 13G filing is based on the investor's potential ownership and not their actual ownership. Hypothetically, if I owned zero shares in MNKD but 50 million warrants, I would have to file a Form 13 because of my "potential" ownership. Filing a Form 13, except in cases of a "street sweep" in pursuit of an acquisition, conveys no information about the true intentions of the purchaser. Normally a Form 13 doesn't tell you anything useful except that a particular new player has entered the field of play. The information comes later while observing the game. The first time you will know what the player is up to comes in mid-February when all institutional managers have to file Form 13F showing their holding as of the last day of 2018 (the report is due 45 days after calendar year end). If CVI holds an amount of shares that is different than what they just disclosed in the 13G filing, then you will have a hint as to what their true intensions are. Even more instructive will be the 13F they file in mid-May (45 days after calendar end of Q1). "[..]the fund can play the volatility by shorting the stock when high [..] and do a similar deal with company 2, company 3 and company 4. The fund doesn't much care which of the companies turns into a big winner just so long as one of them does. "
They can either use the warrants as insurance in their shorting games or keep them hoping to stock goes high, not both! And they can do the same think with calls and puts.. just the scale is a bit bigger, but not that much.
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Post by pat on Dec 29, 2018 14:11:51 GMT -5
My read is different Matt. I’m not saying the scenario you’ve described is wrong. It’s one of many possibilities. Market participants have different motives. You take share issuances, short shares, warrants, calls, puts, etal and any number of scenarios can be laid out for different participants.
I see CVI as an investor. I do not believe they sold shares short before participating in this offering. They will hold the stock for some time to come. Further they will execute the warrants and add the resulting shares to their position. Do I have any direct evidence supporting what I’ve said. No.
Mannkind made a very conservative move. The markets are all over the place. Do we need the extra funding? Not immediately. Possibly in the future if Afrezza sales don’t continue to improve among other things. Is it better to access markets now than wait? Probably.
I don’t think that this issuance will be available to cover the 43mm short positions. The shorts are blowing up social media trying to get retail investors to sell. Very interested to see the next short measurement.
I doubt mike will say much of consequence next week. Nor do I really care. This company will be worth many multiples of its current value in the years ahead. I’m going to buy more long dates options next week.
Morfu - I agree on your Deerfield take. They are acting as a lender to MNKD and are looking to get paid back.
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Post by falconquest on Dec 29, 2018 19:24:13 GMT -5
I'm going to share some of my darker thoughts about the stock market (and the stock?). The place is full of thieves with giant salaries wearing expensive suits. I had wondered why the MNKD short interest was drifting so high. My assumption is insider trading. And, this isn't the first time the two (SI + dilution) have appeared together. Perhaps there has almost never been a MNKD shelf without it. And, I suspect this is common. It's not evildoers out to kill poor little MNKD to preserve the market for injected RAA insulin and the profits of Eli Lilly, Sanofi, and Novo Nordisk. They may be involved too and I've suspected they are. How is it 20% the quantity of sales people selling 1 drug are eclipsing the resources Sanofi had to apply? But I digress. Sadly, I think "death spiral financing" (to borrow a phrase from the loathesome Adam Fuerstein) from investment firms with locations like the Caymans are probable in the pharma industry (at least). So anyway, I expect the shorting prior to the dilution allowed CVI (or their affiliat e) to wet their beak(s) prior to trying to make some money on the sales of the new shares (and/or interest on loaning them for shorting). I'd like one of the traders (Dennis?) to weigh in and explain how the warrants help with the hedge. I can probably figure it out on my own, but would assume others would like to see that explained too.
Sorry, I have to call BS on the "shorts are smarter than us insider trading".. they thought they can crush Mnkd with brute force and maybe some did make some money by bringing the share price down from about 10$ before reverse split to the 60ct or whatever we saw earlier this year. But they did not succeed! And unless we start giving shares away for cheap, they will have to bleed badly for or! That is why I would like to see a good explanation from their management for their current decision to give out these shares .. in my opinion without any current need! My conspiracy is, that "some friend" was helped! This 20% dilution is from the market value of a fully profitable company a couple of years from now.. I would really like to know a good reason for this! All this blabla of "how upset someone is" or "how good Mike runs the company" aside, he works for us, the shareholders, and cant burn money like that without a good explanation.. However, I hope the big players remember this next time he asks for another ridiculous amount of shares to dilute!
As for Deerfield and CVI.. that are two different business models.. Deerfield was lending out money for high rates and decided to cash out in shares rather than bankrupt the company, which in generous I guess, but was mainly in their own interest, CVI plays the market, aka tries to buy something under value cheaply or sell something high (no necessarily in that order) I claim (without proof), that Deerfield was not playing the market, they just wanted to get their money back.
What? How can you argue that shorts aren't smarter? Short sellers have been in control of this stock for over 15 years. Maybe you don't equate making money with being smarter but they're the only ones that have made money here over time.
It's pretty bad in my opinion that we're wallowing in the mire of bottom feeders like Deerfield and CVI. Mike better get something positive done about sales in 2019 or he'll be up for dunce CEO of the year.
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Post by morfu on Dec 30, 2018 0:29:08 GMT -5
Sorry, I have to call BS on the "shorts are smarter than us insider trading".. they thought they can crush Mnkd with brute force and maybe some did make some money by bringing the share price down from about 10$ before reverse split to the 60ct or whatever we saw earlier this year. But they did not succeed! And unless we start giving shares away for cheap, they will have to bleed badly for or! That is why I would like to see a good explanation from their management for their current decision to give out these shares .. in my opinion without any current need! My conspiracy is, that "some friend" was helped! This 20% dilution is from the market value of a fully profitable company a couple of years from now.. I would really like to know a good reason for this! All this blabla of "how upset someone is" or "how good Mike runs the company" aside, he works for us, the shareholders, and cant burn money like that without a good explanation.. However, I hope the big players remember this next time he asks for another ridiculous amount of shares to dilute!
As for Deerfield and CVI.. that are two different business models.. Deerfield was lending out money for high rates and decided to cash out in shares rather than bankrupt the company, which in generous I guess, but was mainly in their own interest, CVI plays the market, aka tries to buy something under value cheaply or sell something high (no necessarily in that order) I claim (without proof), that Deerfield was not playing the market, they just wanted to get their money back.
What? How can you argue that shorts aren't smarter? Short sellers have been in control of this stock for over 15 years. Maybe you don't equate making money with being smarter but they're the only ones that have made money here over time.
It's pretty bad in my opinion that we're wallowing in the mire of bottom feeders like Deerfield and CVI. Mike better get something positive done about sales in 2019 or he'll be up for dunce CEO of the year.
They sold stocks short and some of them got out and made money, but beside Mike and the great management giving away about 20% of the company for cheap, some of them are still here.. getting trapped is not smart! Making money going into debt is not smart! If they were in control, Mnkd would be bankrupt, that is what short sellers are aiming for! They tried for a long time, but they will fail!
At the same time (well only the last 3 years) I used their interest payments to triple my part in this company and will continue doing so.. just a small fish, but the short make me rich little by little every month!
BTW, my statement was about the shorts knowing more than us.. that is still bs!
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Post by sportsrancho on Dec 30, 2018 8:41:20 GMT -5
morfu, Great posts, I’m gonna go with I think you’re smarter than us:-))
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Post by agedhippie on Dec 30, 2018 8:54:20 GMT -5
What? How can you argue that shorts aren't smarter? Short sellers have been in control of this stock for over 15 years. Maybe you don't equate making money with being smarter but they're the only ones that have made money here over time.
It's pretty bad in my opinion that we're wallowing in the mire of bottom feeders like Deerfield and CVI. Mike better get something positive done about sales in 2019 or he'll be up for dunce CEO of the year.
They sold stocks short and some of them got out and made money, but beside Mike and the great management giving away about 20% of the company for cheap, some of them are still here.. getting trapped is not smart! Making money going into debt is not smart! If they were in control, Mnkd would be bankrupt, that is what short sellers are aiming for! They tried for a long time, but they will fail!
At the same time (well only the last 3 years) I used their interest payments to triple my part in this company and will continue doing so.. just a small fish, but the short make me rich little by little every month!
BTW, my statement was about the shorts knowing more than us.. that is still bs! I think you credit the shorts with far more ambition than they have. They don't need bankruptcy, they just got handed a nice juicy 33% return on their money which gives an eye-watering IRR. For the long term shorts year to date MNKD shareholders have handed them a 56% return. That's why they hang around. The last thing that the shorts want is MNKD bankrupt, right now it's the gift that keeps on giving.
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Post by prcgorman2 on Dec 30, 2018 15:00:49 GMT -5
Very interesting replies to my speculation. Thank you all and especially Matt. The timing of surprising increases in short interest before dilution is still not explained.
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