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Post by agedhippie on Dec 30, 2018 15:50:51 GMT -5
Very interesting replies to my speculation. Thank you all and especially Matt. The timing of surprising increases in short interest before dilution is still not explained. It had become clear that the April warrants were not going to be exercised which meant a cash shortfall. There had to be a raise, A short looking at the same data is going to short the stock immediately because the price will drop waiting for the raise so they will make more by going now. As it happened management surprised everyone by going early. The shorts who had read the tea leaves got lucky and their payout came early. Some shorts probably never made it to the start line.
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Post by morfu on Dec 30, 2018 16:24:35 GMT -5
They sold stocks short and some of them got out and made money, but beside Mike and the great management giving away about 20% of the company for cheap, some of them are still here.. getting trapped is not smart! Making money going into debt is not smart! If they were in control, Mnkd would be bankrupt, that is what short sellers are aiming for! They tried for a long time, but they will fail!
At the same time (well only the last 3 years) I used their interest payments to triple my part in this company and will continue doing so.. just a small fish, but the short make me rich little by little every month!
BTW, my statement was about the shorts knowing more than us.. that is still bs! I think you credit the shorts with far more ambition than they have. They don't need bankruptcy, they just got handed a nice juicy 33% return on their money which gives an eye-watering IRR. For the long term shorts year to date MNKD shareholders have handed them a 56% return. That's why they hang around. The last thing that the shorts want is MNKD bankrupt, right now it's the gift that keeps on giving. Could you define that "56% return" for me? It cant be "I sold something short and now I have to hope that it doesnt go up again while I pay interest on it"!? That would be a number game without a basis in reality, as they cannot buy back what they already sold without affecting the price (and again, that is unless the great management gives away 20% of the company for cheap without any need for it)
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Post by agedhippie on Dec 30, 2018 18:03:30 GMT -5
I think you credit the shorts with far more ambition than they have. They don't need bankruptcy, they just got handed a nice juicy 33% return on their money which gives an eye-watering IRR. For the long term shorts year to date MNKD shareholders have handed them a 56% return. That's why they hang around. The last thing that the shorts want is MNKD bankrupt, right now it's the gift that keeps on giving. Could you define that "56% return" for me? It cant be "I sold something short and now I have to hope that it doesnt go up again while I pay interest on it"!? That would be a number game without a basis in reality, as they cannot buy back what they already sold without affecting the price (and again, that is unless the great management gives away 20% of the company for cheap without any need for it)
Sorry, but that is exactly what it is. Shorting is selling because you have done your analysis and predict (not hope) the price will drop. You absolutely can buy back without affecting the price, you do it by buying gradually. You are overlooking the initial short, that is equally sensitive because you don't want the price dropping significantly while you are selling. This is done with accumulate/distribute algorithms which automatically handle the buying and selling in an optimal manner and avoid detection or market movement.
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Post by sportsrancho on Dec 30, 2018 20:32:59 GMT -5
I have it on good authority that what aged said about those warrants not being exercised in April ... and that was the reason for more warrants and the raise ...is that he is only guessing:-))
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Post by boca1girl on Dec 30, 2018 20:58:00 GMT -5
I have it on good authority that what aged said about those warrants not being exercised in April ... and that was the reason for more warrants and the raise ...is that he is only guessing:-)) Makes sense, but what if by some miracle, MNKD is trading above $2.38 in April? Would we have the shares on the self to satisfy those warrants after this latest dilution with warrants? After this last offering, there should only be about 2.47M shares left unspoken for. I wonder if proceeds from the last offering will be used to buy back the $2.38 warrants due to expire in April.
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Post by morfu on Dec 30, 2018 22:35:20 GMT -5
Could you define that "56% return" for me? It cant be "I sold something short and now I have to hope that it doesnt go up again while I pay interest on it"!? That would be a number game without a basis in reality, as they cannot buy back what they already sold without affecting the price (and again, that is unless the great management gives away 20% of the company for cheap without any need for it)
Sorry, but that is exactly what it is. Shorting is selling because you have done your analysis and predict (not hope) the price will drop. You absolutely can buy back without affecting the price, you do it by buying gradually. You are overlooking the initial short, that is equally sensitive because you don't want the price dropping significantly while you are selling. This is done with accumulate/distribute algorithms which automatically handle the buying and selling in an optimal manner and avoid detection or market movement. You must watch a different stock then me.. gradual buyout and sensual shorting!? The Mnkd price was brought down in several hits (10Mil shares plus each) and each time the short position increased and never significantly covered. This was the 3rd most (relative amount) shorted stock in the Dow Jones, there is nothing at all sensitive (or smart) about it, these were attacks! So far Mannkind fended them off nicely until this week before Christmas, where we were sold out by Mike and his management! (At least that is my assumption until I hear a good reason for this treachery)
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Post by agedhippie on Dec 31, 2018 6:23:53 GMT -5
Sorry, but that is exactly what it is. Shorting is selling because you have done your analysis and predict (not hope) the price will drop. You absolutely can buy back without affecting the price, you do it by buying gradually. You are overlooking the initial short, that is equally sensitive because you don't want the price dropping significantly while you are selling. This is done with accumulate/distribute algorithms which automatically handle the buying and selling in an optimal manner and avoid detection or market movement. You must watch a different stock then me.. gradual buyout and sensual shorting!? The Mnkd price was brought down in several hits (10Mil shares plus each) and each time the short position increased and never significantly covered. This was the 3rd most (relative amount) shorted stock in the Dow Jones, there is nothing at all sensitive (or smart) about it, these were attacks! So far Mannkind fended them off nicely until this week before Christmas, where we were sold out by Mike and his management! (At least that is my assumption until I hear a good reason for this treachery) Why do you think this is one of the most shorted stocks? How about the returns? Share price at close of first day of the year since 2015: $28.20, $7.25, $3.15, $2.66, $1.14 Gross profit to the shorts since 2015: 74%, 57%, 16%, 57%. If this year had closed at $1.70 that last one would have been 36%. I don't see a the shareholders handing over 36% of their investment as " fended them off nicely", but that's just me. You might sneer, but there is a reason everyone uses algorithms to build positions stealthily. It is one of the few areas where retail investors have an edge because it takes time for big buyers to establish a position. If I am selling short I want to sell at the best price possible, if I am buying I want to buy at the lowest price possible. If I put in big orders I am going to move the market against myself which defeats the purpose. The funds doing the serious shorting trust their analysis of the company and just wait.
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Post by morfu on Dec 31, 2018 10:13:32 GMT -5
You must watch a different stock then me.. gradual buyout and sensual shorting!? The Mnkd price was brought down in several hits (10Mil shares plus each) and each time the short position increased and never significantly covered. This was the 3rd most (relative amount) shorted stock in the Dow Jones, there is nothing at all sensitive (or smart) about it, these were attacks! So far Mannkind fended them off nicely until this week before Christmas, where we were sold out by Mike and his management! (At least that is my assumption until I hear a good reason for this treachery) Why do you think this is one of the most shorted stocks? How about the returns? Share price at close of first day of the year since 2015: $28.20, $7.25, $3.15, $2.66, $1.14 Gross profit to the shorts since 2015: 74%, 57%, 16%, 57%. If this year had closed at $1.70 that last one would have been 36%. I don't see a the shareholders handing over 36% of their investment as " fended them off nicely", but that's just me. You might sneer, but there is a reason everyone uses algorithms to build positions stealthily. It is one of the few areas where retail investors have an edge because it takes time for big buyers to establish a position. If I am selling short I want to sell at the best price possible, if I am buying I want to buy at the lowest price possible. If I put in big orders I am going to move the market against myself which defeats the purpose. The funds doing the serious shorting trust their analysis of the company and just wait. Now its not only return, but profit and not only the shorts are smart, but their computers too.. Did you read my post 17h ago: "Could you define that "56% return" for me? It cant be "I sold something short and now I have to hope that it doesnt go up again while I pay interest on it"!? That would be a number game without a basis in reality, as they cannot buy back what they already sold without affecting the price (and again, that is unless the great management gives away 20% of the company for cheap without any need for it)"
And earlier I said, the short are so smart, I tripled my part in the company, while they are paying for it!!
However, all this argumentative circles from you aside, my message is: the shorts not know more then us and they would have to bleed badly wasn't it for the managements decision to give away about 20% of the company cheaply ten days ago, the management owes the shareholders an explanation for this!
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Post by agedhippie on Dec 31, 2018 12:39:33 GMT -5
You might sneer, but there is a reason everyone uses algorithms to build positions stealthily. It is one of the few areas where retail investors have an edge because it takes time for big buyers to establish a position. If I am selling short I want to sell at the best price possible, if I am buying I want to buy at the lowest price possible. If I put in big orders I am going to move the market against myself which defeats the purpose. The funds doing the serious shorting trust their analysis of the company and just wait. Now its not only return, but profit and not only the shorts are smart, but their computers too.. Lol, yes More seriously almost every decent brokerage has algorithms to do this, Interactive Brokers who I use certainly do ( Accumulate / Distribute). All trading firms have them. It's basic trading hygiene if you are trading large blocks regardless of whether you are going long or short.
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Post by morfu on Dec 31, 2018 14:04:34 GMT -5
Now its not only return, but profit and not only the shorts are smart, but their computers too.. Lol, yes More seriously almost every decent brokerage has algorithms to do this, Interactive Brokers who I use certainly do ( Accumulate / Distribute). All trading firms have them. It's basic trading hygiene if you are trading large blocks regardless of whether you are going long or short. Please, never quote anyone incompletely without marking it specifically! This is fairy tale material! Selling your soul now for a lot of money!
Shorts and their algorithms (who- or whatever feels smarter currently) decided to dump more than 1mil shares a day this week to keep the price around 1$ I wonder what the return and profit of that smart procedure might be.. they will run out it shares eventually, no matter how many presents they got from Mike for Christmas! And no matter how much you praise the shorts, their knowledge and their high tech, we still need an explanation from the management
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Post by longliner on Dec 31, 2018 16:25:42 GMT -5
Lol, yes More seriously almost every decent brokerage has algorithms to do this, Interactive Brokers who I use certainly do ( Accumulate / Distribute). All trading firms have them. It's basic trading hygiene if you are trading large blocks regardless of whether you are going long or short. Please, never quote anyone incompletely without marking it specifically! This is fairy tale material! Selling your soul now for a lot of money!
Shorts and their algorithms (who- or whatever feels smarter currently) decided to dump more than 1mil shares a day this week to keep the price around 1$ I wonder what the return and profit of that smart procedure might be.. they will run out it shares eventually, no matter how many presents they got from Mike for Christmas! And no matter how much you praise the shorts, their knowledge and their high tech, we still need an explanation from the management
I was subjected to this tactic recently as well.
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Post by agedhippie on Dec 31, 2018 16:29:31 GMT -5
... And no matter how much you praise the shorts, their knowledge and their high tech, we still need an explanation from the management If you think I am praising the shorts you are sadly mistaken, it's a statement of fact. They are simply following the trend line (not exactly revolutionary) and taking the money. As soon as that trend line turns up the shorts will become longs and just as happily take money that way. As for the tech, it's freely available, not special or unique to the shorts (that was the whole point of the Interactive Brokers link). I do agree that we need an explanation from the management though.
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