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Post by mannmade on Jan 8, 2019 11:04:04 GMT -5
Rothblatt explained that Spiresta is for rescue (and is not the replacement for Tyvaso nebulizer). Treprostinil Technospere is being developed to replace the Tyvaso Nebulizer. Tyvaso net sales in Q3 2018 was $108 million. So if the new TS drug replaces the current drug and does just same revenue of about $450m per year in sales with low double digit royalties, of say 12%, mnkd should see a little over $51m in revenue w very little costs against it. Now multiply that by several molecules and we have a very nice balanced revenue stream that is ongoing and growing.
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Post by jlaw277 on Jan 8, 2019 11:08:12 GMT -5
Martine Rothblatt is awesome, great presentation Paraphrasing... "We're pretty confident that the 400M dollars a year we're doing with Tyvaso will grow to a 1B dollars a year or more" Technosphere Treprostinil will replace Tyvaso and will be able to be used in combination with Tysuberprost, and will become the only FDA approved treatment for people with PH w/ ILD and PH w/ COPD. Also, Samumed's small molecule for IPF is specifically designed for inhalation. Rothblatt didn't say what inhalation delivery system they were planning to use, but common sense points at MannKind. At low double digit royalties, that $400 million translates into roughly $48 million per year and at $1 billion in sales that is $120 million per year to MNKD. Assuming these revenue targets ($400 mm) will continue to be achievable, that equates to over $1 billion dollars in market cap for MNKD on this product alone.
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Post by peppy on Jan 8, 2019 11:27:20 GMT -5
Martine Rothblatt is awesome, great presentation Paraphrasing... "We're pretty confident that the 400M dollars a year we're doing with Tyvaso will grow to a 1B dollars a year or more" Technosphere Treprostinil will replace Tyvaso and will be able to be used in combination with Tysuberprost, and will become the only FDA approved treatment for people with PH w/ ILD and PH w/ COPD. Also, Samumed's small molecule for IPF is specifically designed for inhalation. Rothblatt didn't say what inhalation delivery system they were planning to use, but common sense points at MannKind. At low double digit royalties, that $400 million translates into roughly $48 million per year and at $1 billion in sales that is $120 million per year to MNKD. Assuming these revenue targets ($400 mm) will continue to be achievable, that equates to over $1 billion dollars in market cap for MNKD on this product alone. MNKD's market capitalization is presently, 222.585M.
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Post by uvula on Jan 8, 2019 11:32:40 GMT -5
If I were UTHR I would try to buy MNKD outright. The acquisition will pay for itself in a 2-3 years if they sell off (or kill) Afrezza.
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Post by mannmade on Jan 8, 2019 11:45:59 GMT -5
Actually my first wish is that UTHR buy 20% to 30% of mnkd similar to the Sanofi/Regeneron deal.
This would infuse cash, validate TS, ensure future revenue and likely give an immediate increase to the pps/market cap of mnkd. Also Uthr could do it for a lot less today than a few years from now and also likely would recoup their investment almost immediately as the pps of mnkd would go up on announcement of the deal.
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Post by boca1girl on Jan 8, 2019 11:50:18 GMT -5
I think the projected royalties stated by some here are a bit high. I think the deal was based on net income, not gross revenue.
Still nice royalties but not as high as some are speculating.
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Post by Clement on Jan 8, 2019 11:52:15 GMT -5
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Post by jlaw277 on Jan 8, 2019 13:05:16 GMT -5
Actually my first wish is that UTHR buy 20% to 30% of mnkd similar to the Sanofi/Regeneron deal. This would infuse cash, validate TS, ensure future revenue and likely give an immediate increase to the pps/market cap of mnkd. Also Uthr could do it for a lot less today than a few years from now and also likely would recoup their investment almost immediately as the pps of mnkd would go up on announcement of the deal. MC indicated a strategic investor was part of the December investor group. That means a company, not a firm. Has there been any indication who that was?
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Post by #NoMoreNeedles on Jan 8, 2019 13:39:26 GMT -5
"This capital raise was sourced from a strategic investor, existing institutional shareholders and new long term equity shareholders and we’ve had -- and we’ve met with and have been doing -- and been doing their due diligence over the last 12 months. These investors were interested in making sure we’re able to invest in our 2019 growth plan and carry us in the mid 2020 or longer depending what happens with the outstanding warrants, and further sales trend as well as any potential business development transactions." Source: SeekingAlpha transcript: seekingalpha.com/article/4231518-mannkind-corporation-mnkd-ceo-michael-castagna-hosts-investor-conference-call-transcript?part=single
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Post by brotherm1 on Jan 8, 2019 13:42:23 GMT -5
Rothblatt explained that Spiresta is for rescue (and is not the replacement for Tyvaso nebulizer). Treprostinil Technospere is being developed to replace the Tyvaso Nebulizer. Tyvaso net sales in Q3 2018 was $108 million. So if the new TS drug replaces the current drug and does just same revenue of about $450m per year in sales with low double digit royalties, of say 12%, mnkd should see a little over $51m in revenue w very little costs against it. Now multiply that by several molecules and we have a very nice balanced revenue stream that is ongoing and growing. Anyone know if in UTHR’s call Ralinepag was mentioned and how it would be used? Where will ARNA’s Ralinepag that UTHR paid 800M for shortly after their deal with MNKD for Treprostinil will fit in? It is also used to treat pulmonary hypertension.
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Post by mnkdfann on Jan 8, 2019 15:26:35 GMT -5
So if the new TS drug replaces the current drug and does just same revenue of about $450m per year in sales with low double digit royalties, of say 12%, mnkd should see a little over $51m in revenue w very little costs against it. Now multiply that by several molecules and we have a very nice balanced revenue stream that is ongoing and growing. Anyone know if in UTHR’s call Ralinepag was mentioned and how it would be used? Where will ARNA’s Ralinepag that UTHR paid 800M for shortly after their deal with MNKD for Treprostinil will fit in? It is also used to treat pulmonary hypertension. I am spot listening to the call now. Yes, it was mentioned and included in the slides. There, ARNA’s Ralinepag is described as "Potential 'Best-in-Class' Asset for PAH." And that it targets the same 'PH Who Group 1' as Treprostinil Technosphere. Slides are here, but you may have to sign up first: jpmorgan.metameetings.net/events/healthcare19/sessions/23947-united-therapeutics-corp/webcast
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Post by mnkdfann on Jan 8, 2019 15:35:02 GMT -5
Martine Rothblatt is awesome, great presentation Paraphrasing... "We're pretty confident that the 400M dollars a year we're doing with Tyvaso will grow to a 1B dollars a year or more" Technosphere Treprostinil will replace Tyvaso and will be able to be used in combination with Tysuberprost, and will become the only FDA approved treatment for people with PH w/ ILD and PH w/ COPD. Also, Samumed's small molecule for IPF is specifically designed for inhalation. Rothblatt didn't say what inhalation delivery system they were planning to use, but common sense points at MannKind. At low double digit royalties, that $400 million translates into roughly $48 million per year and at $1 billion in sales that is $120 million per year to MNKD. Assuming these revenue targets ($400 mm) will continue to be achievable, that equates to over $1 billion dollars in market cap for MNKD on this product alone. Taking the quote in context, Rothblatt was talking about 400M+ total split over FIVE different products: BEAT, INCREASE, PERFECT, Technosphere, and SPIRESTA. So Mannkind will be getting much less than that $48 million per year (everything else in your, or mango's, set of assumptions held constant). In comparison, Rothblatt said Ralinepag was expected to add $1 billion to the top line on its own.
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Post by peppy on Jan 8, 2019 15:59:47 GMT -5
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Post by jred on Jan 8, 2019 16:31:54 GMT -5
Taking the quote in context, Rothblatt was talking about 400M+ total split over FIVE different products: BEAT, INCREASE, PERFECT, Technosphere, and SPIRESTA. So Mannkind will be getting much less than that $48 million per year (everything else in your, or mango's, set of assumptions held constant).
I'll have to listen again when I get a chance because that is not how I heard it. I believe the $400M is the current annual net sales of Tyvaso. Rothblatt stated that the hope is the 5 products will generate $1 billion+ down the line. If it works out, the Technosphere platform would replace the current Tyvaso nebulizer AND be the delivery platform for the Increase, Perfect and the inhaled component of the Beat product. Spiresta is described as a complimentary product to Treprostinil Technosphere to serve as an as needed product in between regular treatments.
So it sounded to me like the Technosphere product has a possibility to replace the current $400M and be a significant component of the first 3 products in trial (BEAT, INCREASE, and PERFECT). How much of the $1 billion projection is coming from Spiresta I couldn't tell, but Technosphere's portion seemed to be in the majority.
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Post by mnkdfann on Jan 8, 2019 16:57:10 GMT -5
Taking the quote in context, Rothblatt was talking about 400M+ total split over FIVE different products: BEAT, INCREASE, PERFECT, Technosphere, and SPIRESTA. So Mannkind will be getting much less than that $48 million per year (everything else in your, or mango's, set of assumptions held constant).
I'll have to listen again when I get a chance because that is not how I heard it. I believe the $400M is the current annual net sales of Tyvaso. Rothblatt stated that the hope is the 5 products will generate $1 billion+ down the line. If it works out, the Technosphere platform would replace the current Tyvaso nebulizer AND be the delivery platform for the Increase, Perfect and the inhaled component of the Beat product. Spiresta is described as a complimentary product to Treprostinil Technosphere to serve as an as needed product in between regular treatments.
So it sounded to me like the Technosphere product has a possibility to replace the current $400M and be a significant component of the first 3 products in trial (BEAT, INCREASE, and PERFECT). How much of the $1 billion projection is coming from Spiresta I couldn't tell, but Technosphere's portion seemed to be in the majority.
I relistened to the relevant portions myself. Yes, 400M+ is the current net sales of Tyvaso. The call said the 5 products I listed would grow that $400M to $1 billion and more. But it's not clear to me how much of that will go to Technosphere, it wasn't said. LATER in the call, it is suggested that Ralinepag could add yet ANOTHER $1 billion in revenues to the top-line.
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