limo
Researcher
Posts: 76
|
Post by limo on Mar 5, 2019 11:36:20 GMT -5
On a side note i wonder about the broader effects on the insulin market. In basic terms if BP are cutting their margins, market share will be all the more important to them, so wont be happy with the likes of MNKD creeping up the ladder and eating away at their mkt share. Granted they dont have a lot at the moment, but they will be keeping a close eye it. IMO if MNKD get ~>3% their chances of bid spec will increase significantly.
|
|
|
Post by traderdennis on Mar 5, 2019 12:19:03 GMT -5
On a side note i wonder about the broader effects on the insulin market. In basic terms if BP are cutting their margins, market share will be all the more important to them, so wont be happy with the likes of MNKD creeping up the ladder and eating away at their mkt share. Granted they dont have a lot at the moment, but they will be keeping a close eye it. IMO if MNKD get ~>3% their chances of bid spec will increase significantly. at 3%, scripts would need to be at 7500 per week.
|
|
|
Post by harryx1 on Mar 5, 2019 12:33:21 GMT -5
|
|
|
Post by traderdennis on Mar 5, 2019 12:42:44 GMT -5
Harry, 8 QTR growth is false. Q1 2018 was slightly below Q4 2017 on a quarter over quarter comparison.
|
|
|
Post by matt on Mar 5, 2019 14:08:58 GMT -5
Is there a realistic scenario where scripts rise significantly in the near term but there's little to no change in the pps this year? Yes, and that scenario is where the incremental gross profit from those scripts is less than the cost of advertising and promotions to obtain them. There is not enough visibility to the detailed numbers to assess what the company is spending on advertising and co-pay cards relative to the incremental revenue, so it could be a positive, a negative or a wash. It will take through the end of Q1, and perhaps the end of Q2, to have a better idea about that. The company might also find that any increase in scripts is short-lived unless the advertising spurt continues. There are many examples of products that advertise constantly, not because sales are growing, but because when advertising exposure declines sales goes down. The other great unknown is competitor actions. As we have just seen with Lilly launching an unbranded version of Humalog, Mannkind can do nothing to control the actions of the other players in the market. Given the rapid increase in insulin prices in recent years, even though the unbranded Humalog is half the price of the branded version, I can guarantee you that Lilly is still making nice money on the new product. Lilly can cut prices even more if need be to maintain their share of the market, and Novo can do the same, but since Afrezza is inherently more expensive to manufacture there is not much wiggle room in MNKD's cost structure. The competition can profitably sell their product at a low enough price point to guarantee that Afrezza remains a relatively expensive option such that it never becomes more than a niche product. Spending more on R&D and building out the pipeline makes more sense than trying to flog Afrezza in a highly competitive market.
|
|
|
Post by joeypotsandpans on Mar 5, 2019 14:32:06 GMT -5
Some folks just will never get it, from my endo visit thread in case my friend who is still in the cost vs. increase in scripts didn't understand the concept of investing in building and retaining a loyal customer base: He mentioned the strategy behind the $15 monthly co-pay which also made a lot of sense to me. It illustrated the company's confidence in the superior results of using Afrezza in building and retaining "customers for life". Read more: mnkd.proboards.com/thread/11024/endo-visit-yesterday#ixzz5hKL7HxCiThere is a very logical and plausible basis behind this strategy, we all can see the retention and growth in refills, the Nrx undoubtedly needed to gain traction, the $15 co-pay plan is an integral part of that and according to my endo at least (and I respect his first hand experience and opinion far more than others) it's working.
|
|
|
Post by akemp3000 on Mar 5, 2019 14:47:29 GMT -5
I was thinking the same Joey. The cost comparisons of Humalog and others to Afrezza will soon be less important in the big picture. Afrezza is easier to use. It's safer with less hypos. It improves the quality of life. From what we're hearing, once someone learns how best to use Afrezza and how to afford it, they wouldn't consider going back to Humalog if they gave it away. We just need more people trying out Afrezza which is what Mannkind is pushing.
|
|
|
Post by pguererro on Mar 5, 2019 19:08:55 GMT -5
New fancy initiatives and ideas are not the solution to Afrezza. Patients have to start titrating, and tolerating Afrezza. Without refills this thing doesn’t work. Patients aren’t staying on this drug
|
|
|
Post by olebob1 on Mar 5, 2019 19:36:47 GMT -5
New fancy initiatives and ideas are not the solution to Afrezza. Patients have to start titrating, and tolerating Afrezza. Without refills this thing doesn’t work. Patients aren’t staying on this drug One by one, inch by inch, we will get there someday. Please see quote from FBook Afrezza group: "Today was a crap blood sugar day. I don’t have those very often as you can see by my estimated A1C. My highest sugar today was 244. I stopped for a minute and thought about that. How times have changed since starting Afrezza. I used to take 244 in stride. My range is set to 65-165. I was disappointed to see my current time in range of 77%. I’m usually in the 90’s. Then I thought back again to when I first started Afrezza. My time in range was in the 60’s. What can I say??!!Even on bad days I love Afrezza. ❤️ " Her Est A1c is 5.6. She uses Afrezza and Tresiba.
|
|
|
Post by ancient on Mar 5, 2019 19:39:18 GMT -5
New fancy initiatives and ideas are not the solution to Afrezza. Patients have to start titrating, and tolerating Afrezza. Without refills this thing doesn’t work. Patients aren’t staying on this drug Is it because of blood glucose levels or cost?
|
|
|
Post by joeypotsandpans on Mar 5, 2019 20:13:10 GMT -5
New fancy initiatives and ideas are not the solution to Afrezza. Patients have to start titrating, and tolerating Afrezza. Without refills this thing doesn’t work. Patients aren’t staying on this drug Then whose fault is that? The physician's for not understanding and conveying the proper titration for each of their individual patients, the rep for not correctly educating the physicians about the product, or the patients not following directions properly or being voluntarily non-compliant. I'm not what I would consider the "ideal" patient but I still say it's so easy a caveman can do it. If refills aren't being renewed I would say that more than likely it's an insurance issue rather than any of the other reasons I mentioned.
|
|
|
Post by peppy on Mar 5, 2019 20:32:42 GMT -5
when I read the facebook board, once they get a CGM prescription, they talk to each other about doses.
This is the best dosing given from a physician I have seen.
|
|
|
Post by prcgorman2 on Mar 5, 2019 20:34:38 GMT -5
Time will tell I suppose, but I can't help feeling like posts that say half-price Humalog will kill Afrezza, or advertising will put Mannkind in a worse position are not offered entirely from a position of wanting to help. Unless the people reporting what were previously unattainable or at least unattained A1Cs are lying, Afrezza represents a real-life honest-to-goodness breakthrough in mealtime insulin. An insulin which appears to have the fastest onset of peak effective action and fastest elimination from the body with reduced hypos and better overall time in range as evidenced by the improved A1Cs. What is quality of life worth? What is reduced comorbidity worth? The first is worth a lot to everybody. The second is worth a lot to insurance companies. Maybe I'm just more sensitive now that Mannkind sales of Afrezza are in the range of Sanofi's sales of Afrezza when they stabbed Mannkind in the back, but it seems like there is increased intensity of posting which questions management and questions the value of Afrezza. Kind of feels like the "pro" is coming out of "Proboard".
|
|