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Post by akemp3000 on Mar 4, 2019 11:37:50 GMT -5
Much has been discussed about scripts not yet rising and the need for different marketing ideas and more. Maybe it's time to speculate on the scenario that scripts do rise following the recent and on-going TV ad campaign. What happens next? The first obvious question would be rise by how much? Let's not get lost in speculating numbers but simply assume they show a significant improvement but not enough to inspire a short squeeze. IMO, this would send a strong validation message to the big three and others that Afrezza and TS are not only here to stay but should now be considered a threat to some established markets.
Do one or two BPs make a play? Wouldn't they almost have to? Does a big money savvy investor consider a buy-in? Does a wanna be player in the diabetes arena propose a merger? Could a corporate raider make a move? Is there a realistic scenario where scripts rise significantly in the near term but there's little to no change in the pps this year? Just wondering what others are thinking while we wait for the forthcoming script results.
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Post by esstan2001 on Mar 4, 2019 12:09:50 GMT -5
Much has been discussed about scripts not yet rising and the need for different marketing ideas and more. Maybe it's time to speculate on the scenario that scripts do rise following the recent and on-going TV ad campaign. What happens next? The first obvious question would be rise by how much? Let's not get lost in speculating numbers but simply assume they show a significant improvement but not enough to inspire a short squeeze. IMO, this would send a strong validation message to the big three and others that Afrezza and TS are not only here to stay but should now be considered a threat to some established markets. Do one or two BPs make a play? Wouldn't they almost have to? Does a big money savvy investor consider a buy-in? Does a wanna be player in the diabetes arena propose a merger? Could a corporate raider make a move? Is there a realistic scenario where scripts rise significantly in the near term but there's little to no change in the pps this year? Just wondering what others are thinking while we wait for the forthcoming script results. Rising scripts are the best prescription for the stock $, and will increase the odds for all the scenarios you lay out. I would expect scripts, stock $ and odds of all your aforementioned outocmes to at least be loosely to moderately coupled.
Edit: Oh, and if scripts move materially, not only possible, but probable  |
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Post by awesomo on Mar 4, 2019 12:48:31 GMT -5
If scripts do start significantly rising, this will clarify the path towards "break even" and becoming a self sustaining company with great technology. The PPS is depressed right now because the financials are distressed and at this current rate of growth, the company will likely have to dilute again later in the year and the ongoing death spiral will continue. If break even becomes more of a reality, this will bring about increased attention from competitors, other pharma players, and analysts, and the PPS will rise.
I think we do need to address what "significantly" is, since we've been cheering on a growth of 100 scripts for the past year. That's not going to even come close to cutting it.
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Post by traderdennis on Mar 4, 2019 13:00:46 GMT -5
Much has been discussed about scripts not yet rising and the need for different marketing ideas and more. Maybe it's time to speculate on the scenario that scripts do rise following the recent and on-going TV ad campaign. What happens next? The first obvious question would be rise by how much? Let's not get lost in speculating numbers but simply assume they show a significant improvement but not enough to inspire a short squeeze. IMO, this would send a strong validation message to the big three and others that Afrezza and TS are not only here to stay but should now be considered a threat to some established markets. Do one or two BPs make a play? Wouldn't they almost have to? Does a big money savvy investor consider a buy-in? Does a wanna be player in the diabetes arena propose a merger? Could a corporate raider make a move? Is there a realistic scenario where scripts rise significantly in the near term but there's little to no change in the pps this year? Just wondering what others are thinking while we wait for the forthcoming script results. 5% of the market would be 10-15K scripts per week. Below that number MNKD is a rounding error to BP. We can talk after 10K scripts. |
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Post by agedhippie on Mar 4, 2019 13:15:09 GMT -5
Having read uvula's new thread it seems Lilly just halved the price of Humalog. Strictly speaking they are producing a generic version, but the only difference is the label. That puts the price of Humalog at virtually the same as the promotional Afrezza price. I expect Novo Nordisk and Mannkind are going to have to follow suit or be priced out. Everyone's insulin revenue is going to be at or under this price now. Scripts need to rise a lot. |
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Post by esstan2001 on Mar 4, 2019 13:18:51 GMT -5
If scripts do start significantly rising, this will clarify the path towards "break even" and becoming a self sustaining company with great technology. The PPS is depressed right now because the financials are distressed and at this current rate of growth, the company will likely have to dilute again later in the year and the ongoing death spiral will continue. If break even becomes more of a reality, this will bring about increased attention from competitors, other pharma players, and analysts, and the PPS will rise. I think we do need to address what "significantly" is, since we've been cheering on a growth of 100 scripts for the past year. That's not going to even come close to cutting it. A 'material change' is one that as a result of the ad campaign, shows a clear path toward ultimate blockbuster status; while duration plays a part, (I think) it is more the rate of change and the statistical significance of that inflection that will get the attention of a competitor that feels threatened. T.E. mentioned 5% / 10k scripts- if Afrezza is still Mannkind's baby at that point, I also think that means they are holding this for the win. A pharma interested in acquiring this asset will act well before 10k is the run rate IMO, which is based partly on, 'how many legal drugs do you know that users rave about' + 'what other FDA tracked drugs have logged such low incidences of adverse event reporting'? |
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Post by akemp3000 on Mar 4, 2019 14:24:13 GMT -5
Much has been discussed about scripts not yet rising and the need for different marketing ideas and more. Maybe it's time to speculate on the scenario that scripts do rise following the recent and on-going TV ad campaign. What happens next? The first obvious question would be rise by how much? Let's not get lost in speculating numbers but simply assume they show a significant improvement but not enough to inspire a short squeeze. IMO, this would send a strong validation message to the big three and others that Afrezza and TS are not only here to stay but should now be considered a threat to some established markets. Do one or two BPs make a play? Wouldn't they almost have to? Does a big money savvy investor consider a buy-in? Does a wanna be player in the diabetes arena propose a merger? Could a corporate raider make a move? Is there a realistic scenario where scripts rise significantly in the near term but there's little to no change in the pps this year? Just wondering what others are thinking while we wait for the forthcoming script results. 5% of the market would be 10-15K scripts per week. Below that number MNKD is a rounding error to BP. We can talk after 10K scripts. I understand this perspective but it would depend on the rate of the increase. If scripts are climbing rapidly, BP competitors would make a serious mistake to wait until it reaches 10k scripts to act. Oops...just read the prior post that said the same  |
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Post by sugarland on Mar 4, 2019 14:38:39 GMT -5
Keep in mind the size of the sales force being utilized to produce those weekly numbers. When taking our sales force into consideration, I think you could certainly bring that weekly number down significantly. 5,000 weekly RX bring serious changes to the outlook of the company, 2500 eliminates dilution out of necessity, and 1200 starts to open up the eyes of many out there. Not if, but when these landmark numbers occur with decent consistency, we all sleep better at night. Lord knows it’s time!!! 1200 in June !!!
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Post by parrerob on Mar 4, 2019 14:51:01 GMT -5
Much has been discussed about scripts not yet rising and the need for different marketing ideas and more. Maybe it's time to speculate on the scenario that scripts do rise following the recent and on-going TV ad campaign. What happens next? The first obvious question would be rise by how much? Let's not get lost in speculating numbers but simply assume they show a significant improvement but not enough to inspire a short squeeze. IMO, this would send a strong validation message to the big three and others that Afrezza and TS are not only here to stay but should now be considered a threat to some established markets. Do one or two BPs make a play? Wouldn't they almost have to? Does a big money savvy investor consider a buy-in? Does a wanna be player in the diabetes arena propose a merger? Could a corporate raider make a move? Is there a realistic scenario where scripts rise significantly in the near term but there's little to no change in the pps this year? Just wondering what others are thinking while we wait for the forthcoming script results. 5% of the market would be 10-15K scripts per week. Below that number MNKD is a rounding error to BP. We can talk after 10K scripts. Just wondering to see when scripts will generate a poor 2 million gross per week (100+ million/year and probably a 45 million $ net) and showing a 80-100% increase year over year what would be BP and market reaction.... this will happen in 9 months..... |
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Post by sportsrancho on Mar 4, 2019 16:23:45 GMT -5
Much has been discussed about scripts not yet rising and the need for different marketing ideas and more. Maybe it's time to speculate on the scenario that scripts do rise following the recent and on-going TV ad campaign. What happens next? The first obvious question would be rise by how much? Let's not get lost in speculating numbers but simply assume they show a significant improvement but not enough to inspire a short squeeze. IMO, this would send a strong validation message to the big three and others that Afrezza and TS are not only here to stay but should now be considered a threat to some established markets. Do one or two BPs make a play? Wouldn't they almost have to? Does a big money savvy investor consider a buy-in? Does a wanna be player in the diabetes arena propose a merger? Could a corporate raider make a move? Is there a realistic scenario where scripts rise significantly in the near term but there's little to no change in the pps this year? Just wondering what others are thinking while we wait for the forthcoming script results. When they wake up and realize we’re not going belly up. (That would be so easy for them.) They know how Afrezza works, they are just not sure that anybody can sell it. Once we reach that hockey stick then I think it’s pretty much game on. |
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Post by brotherm1 on Mar 4, 2019 17:02:15 GMT -5
Having read uvula's new thread it seems Lilly just halved the price of Humalog. Strictly speaking they are producing a generic version, but the only difference is the label. That puts the price of Humalog at virtually the same as the promotional Afrezza price. I expect Novo Nordisk and Mannkind are going to have to follow suit or be priced out. Everyone's insulin revenue is going to be at or under this price now. Scripts need to rise a lot. Yeah right. And the cost of a Hyundai Accent is 1/6 the cost of a 750 BMW I guess BMW is going out of business |
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Post by agedhippie on Mar 4, 2019 20:45:13 GMT -5
Having read uvula's new thread it seems Lilly just halved the price of Humalog. Strictly speaking they are producing a generic version, but the only difference is the label. That puts the price of Humalog at virtually the same as the promotional Afrezza price. I expect Novo Nordisk and Mannkind are going to have to follow suit or be priced out. Everyone's insulin revenue is going to be at or under this price now. Scripts need to rise a lot. Yeah right. And the cost of a Hyundai Accent is 1/6 the cost of a 750 BMW I guess BMW is going out of business They wouldn't go out of business, but they might need to change their operating model if they could only sell a 750 for the price of an Accent. |
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Post by akemp3000 on Mar 4, 2019 21:35:26 GMT -5
Yeah right. And the cost of a Hyundai Accent is 1/6 the cost of a 750 BMW I guess BMW is going out of business They wouldn't go out of business, but they might need to change their operating model if they could only sell a 750 for the price of an Accent. Wait. If they both sold at the same price, the inferior Hyundai Accent wouldn't sell a car and would be the one going out of business...then BMW could raise the price of the 750 |
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Post by mango on Mar 4, 2019 22:02:02 GMT -5
Having read uvula's new thread it seems Lilly just halved the price of Humalog. Strictly speaking they are producing a generic version, but the only difference is the label. That puts the price of Humalog at virtually the same as the promotional Afrezza price. I expect Novo Nordisk and Mannkind are going to have to follow suit or be priced out. Everyone's insulin revenue is going to be at or under this price now. Scripts need to rise a lot. Has Eli Lilly already done all the pre-clinical and clinical trials, and gotten the FDA’s blessing for this so-called “generic”? You say that it is happening now, but the article makes no mention of this being an already approved product. And, throwing MannKind into the mix— mangos to apples. Lilly will begin selling an “authorized generic” of Humalog 100 for $137.35 per vial, a 50 percent discount off the list price.Critics have singled out insulin manufacturers because versions of the lifesaving diabetes treatment have been around since the 1920s, yet the three companies that control the market — Lilly, Novo Nordisk and Sanofi — have consistently raised list prices over the past decade.Enrique A. Conterno, the president of Lilly’s diabetes division, said Friday that the list price of the authorized generic will be comparable to the net price the company regularly offered to insurers in exchange for standard placement on their formulary, or the list of covered drugs, although he did not specify a dollar amount. But he said the company provided deeper discounts to insurers that give Humalog preferred treatment, which typically means lower out-of-pocket costs for patients.
Lilly has offered a discount program since 2016 that allows consumers to buy Humalog at a significant discount, but Medicare beneficiaries and other people insured by government health care plans were not allowed to use it. The authorized generic will not carry those restrictions, and pharmacists will be able to automatically substitute it for Humalog without asking a doctor to write a new prescription.
Humalog 100 is the most common variety of Lilly’s short-acting insulin. The company said about 80 percent of patients taking Humalog use the vial or the KwikPen, which will both become available as authorized generics. (The list price of a five-pack of the generic equivalent of KwikPens will be $265.20.)
Humalog brought in nearly $3 billion in revenue in 2018 and is the company’s second-best-selling product, behind the diabetes drug Trulicity.
Mr. Conterno said the company was considering releasing authorized generics for other insulin products. However, “we also want to see how this works,” he said. “I’ll be honest, we are entering unusual territory.”
How long does Humalog KwikPen last once I’ve begun using it?
You will need to discard your Humalog KwikPen after 28 days in use, even if insulin remains.
Will there be insulin left in my pen when it’s time to discard it?
KwikPen is designed to deliver a total of 300 units of insulin. The cartridge contains an additional small amount of insulin that cannot be delivered, so you will see a small amount of insulin left in your pen when it’s time to discard it. Remember: Never withdraw Humalog from the pen using a syringe. It could result in an overdose causing severe low blood sugar, which may put your life in danger.The company that will be spearheading Lilly’s efforts has an unsurprising past… Insider Trading Scandal |
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Post by agedhippie on Mar 5, 2019 8:44:32 GMT -5
Having read uvula's new thread it seems Lilly just halved the price of Humalog. Strictly speaking they are producing a generic version, but the only difference is the label. That puts the price of Humalog at virtually the same as the promotional Afrezza price. I expect Novo Nordisk and Mannkind are going to have to follow suit or be priced out. Everyone's insulin revenue is going to be at or under this price now. Scripts need to rise a lot. Has Eli Lilly already done all the pre-clinical and clinical trials, and gotten the FDA’s blessing for this so-called “generic”? You say that it is happening now, but the article makes no mention of this being an already approved product. And, throwing MannKind into the mix— mangos to apples. Lilly will begin selling an “authorized generic” of Humalog 100 for $137.35 per vial, a 50 percent discount off the list price.... The company that will be spearheading Lilly’s efforts has an unsurprising past… Insider Trading ScandalThere is unlikely to be any significant delay as they are simply relabeling bottles coming off the Humalog production line. All they need is packaging approval. I would not get hung up on IMClone, they are a wholly owned part of Lilly and Lilly is just using their name in this case. This is absolutely nothing like IMClone's real business! |
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