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Post by akemp3000 on Mar 9, 2019 11:07:30 GMT -5
1) Data from last July’s brief run of the TV ad on small market programming showed that scripts were responsive in specific markets
2) With the data, the company added reps to specific markets and eliminated them from others
3) The TV ad has now run ~ 2,000 times? since January 14th on major stations on major programs nationally and regionally
4) Website traffic to Afrezza.com increased 5X? in the first month the ads began running
5) Downloads of the Afrezza co-pay card have also increased significantly
6) Data showed scripts began increasing in approximately 6 to 8 weeks following the start of the ads. We have just now entered that time period
7) A Seeking Alpha article has prematurely declared the poor results of advertising before the results are known
If one believes the data is false and the CEO is not truthful, then scripts may not rise. IMO, that would be incredibly naïve. Scripts can be expected to climb very soon and climb more rapidly than at any time in the past.
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Post by awesomo on Mar 9, 2019 11:19:42 GMT -5
So what would be your target scripts for, let’s say, the end of March?
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Post by sportsrancho on Mar 9, 2019 12:03:57 GMT -5
Over a 1000 by next earnings. Then we’ll find out that we have 500-1000 more that weren’t counted. So between $1.5 and $2m
If not then there are other options... I definitely believe the data. But I don’t know one analyst that doesn’t think this is a make or break time, let’s call it the scary time. Hoping for an exciting ride up!
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Post by akemp3000 on Mar 9, 2019 12:29:02 GMT -5
Exactly what she said  |
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Post by buyitonsale on Mar 9, 2019 12:30:00 GMT -5
The ads create awareness, no question about that.
But the doctors ultimately represent a bottleneck to convert that awareness to scripts. I think Mike has been painfully aware of this for several years now.
I think that ads will accelerate the uptake but initially only for most persistent patients.
Ultimately I am counting on the word of mouth and social media impact among PWD to create a tsunami we all have been waiting for.
As long as the trend is up there will be an inflection point to create a sharp increase in sales, but I’m expecting that to happen in several months,, not weeks.
I’m hoping for $2M in weekly sales by July.
Go MNKD!
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Post by awesomo on Mar 9, 2019 14:13:26 GMT -5
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Post by morfu on Mar 9, 2019 14:32:50 GMT -5
1) Data from last July’s brief run of the TV ad on small market programming showed that scripts were responsive in specific markets 2) With the data, the company added reps to specific markets and eliminated them from others 3) The TV ad has now run ~ 2,000 times? since January 14th on major stations on major programs nationally and regionally 4) Website traffic to Afrezza.com increased 5X? in the first month the ads began running 5) Downloads of the Afrezza co-pay card have also increased significantly 6) Data showed scripts began increasing in approximately 6 to 8 weeks following the start of the ads. We have just now entered that time period 7) A Seeking Alpha article has prematurely declared the poor results of advertising before the results are known If one believes the data is false and the CEO is not truthful, then scripts may not rise. IMO, that would be incredibly naïve. Scripts can be expected to climb very soon and climb more rapidly than at any time in the past. Another indicator might be that Afrezza FB page.. wasnt there an article about the increasing signup numbers for that one? |
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Post by ltta on Mar 9, 2019 15:03:31 GMT -5
Over a 1000 by next earnings. Then we’ll find out that we have 500-1000 more that weren’t counted. So between $1.5 and $2m If not then there are other options... I definitely believe the data. But I don’t know one analyst that doesn’t think this is a make or break time, let’s call it the scary time. Hoping for an exciting ride up!
I asked the question below over in the Symphony Script Data Thread... I'm afraid it may have gotten overlooked in-between Peppy's Kastanes/ancient posts.
And assuming Mannkind's direct purchase program is not included in the weekly Symphony Script Data...
Can anyone verify if the Symphony Script Data we see weekly includes the non-retail marketplace?
Symphony's NonRetailSource™ shows accurate understanding of institutional distribution and wholesale activity, incorporates indirect and direct drug sales into institutions including private and government hospitals, clinics, home healthcare providers, HMO captive pharmacies, mail-order pharmacies, and prisons.
symphonyhealth.prahs.com/wp-content/uploads/2013/05/02_21_17_nonretailsource_sales_sheet.pdf
symphonyhealth.prahs.com/product/nonretailsource/
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Post by babaoriley on Mar 9, 2019 15:12:35 GMT -5
Itta: Can anyone verify if the Symphony Script Data we see weekly includes the non-retail marketplace? I meet a shady guy in a trench coat in a dark alley in a seedy part of town for mine, and pay well under retail, but I don't think the guy turns in his numbers to Symphony.
But he does give Blue Chip Stamps to his customers!
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Post by sportsrancho on Mar 9, 2019 15:34:34 GMT -5
I wouldn’t know how to verify something that they estimate. Or so they say. I’m going with baba:-)
Mike said they would not show up. If they were being counted after all, the scripts would be higher than they are. But the scripts are a little lower because they are cannibalizing part of them.
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Post by InvesterSam on Mar 9, 2019 15:43:23 GMT -5
We may not need to know, as long as Symphony script and MNKD earning report correlate similarly.
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Post by traderdennis on Mar 9, 2019 18:56:59 GMT -5
1) Data from last July’s brief run of the TV ad on small market programming showed that scripts were responsive in specific markets 2) With the data, the company added reps to specific markets and eliminated them from others 3) The TV ad has now run ~ 2,000 times? since January 14th on major stations on major programs nationally and regionally 4) Website traffic to Afrezza.com increased 5X? in the first month the ads began running 5) Downloads of the Afrezza co-pay card have also increased significantly 6) Data showed scripts began increasing in approximately 6 to 8 weeks following the start of the ads. We have just now entered that time period 7) A Seeking Alpha article has prematurely declared the poor results of advertising before the results are known If one believes the data is false and the CEO is not truthful, then scripts may not rise. IMO, that would be incredibly naïve. Scripts can be expected to climb very soon and climb more rapidly than at any time in the past. I show about + 40 new scripts over baseline in the first 5 weeks, with +30 new scripts over baseline in week 6. So I hypothesize that we are starting up curve of results. In a few more weeks we can see how the curve looks. |
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Post by brotherm1 on Mar 9, 2019 19:46:18 GMT -5
If you only click on past 90 days , you can much better see the increase of traffic starting in January with the ads. |
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Post by ltta on Mar 9, 2019 20:36:29 GMT -5
Itta: Can anyone verify if the Symphony Script Data we see weekly includes the non-retail marketplace? I meet a shady guy in a trench coat in a dark alley in a seedy part of town for mine, and pay well under retail, but I don't think the guy turns in his numbers to Symphony.
But he does give Blue Chip Stamps to his customers!
Baba, Thanks for the chuckle… I suppose I shouldn’t have been so naive. I read the Symphony PDF on non retail source and thought there was a difference in the reporting. BTW. I’m old enough to know your Blue Chip Stamps reference but, as children, we were just recruited to help paste them into the stamp books.  |
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Post by letitride on Mar 9, 2019 20:46:54 GMT -5
We are selling the only inhaled human insulin. That results in less hypos with no weight gain.
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