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Post by agedhippie on Apr 15, 2019 19:25:24 GMT -5
Duhhh! Don’t you think it’s a bit difficult to execute properly and do what’s needed to grow when the share price is consistently manipulated down?!!! Absolutely amazes me that there are people here that think SO is just a guy with a weird hobby. This guy has been formulating these articles (as you mentioned, there are many brains contributing to these articles, he’s not doing this all on his own) for years. It absolutely is his FULL TIME ‘job’ And no, his articles are not causing anyone here to buy or sell, that’s because we have seen these for years...but you can bet there are others who may be thinking about investing, begin their due diligence by googling MNKD, and guess what they all see...negative article after negative article by SO, who they think must be reputable, since he is getting all these articles published, not knowing that Seeking Alpha is basically a journalism ‘chop shop’ Before everyone jumps in with “he is not hindering doctors from prescribing Afrezza”....I realize that...but him, AF and all the others, have always made me feel like I’ve been partially cheated out of my investment...and honestly, I’m tired of it I think you are seriously over-estimating the amount of work that goes into one of those articles. Essentially they are a summary of the weeks events, a couple of graphs from a spreadsheet, and the payment spreadsheet. All he needs to do is put in the weeks numbers into the model, and write a bit of commentary. I seriously doubt it's more than a couple of hours work a week at the most. He is simply making the other side of the argument. With a micro-cap like Mannkind you wouldn't waste time with articles if you wanted to manipulate the price, you would do it via the market. It's a lot more quicker and more certain.
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Post by ktim on Apr 15, 2019 19:26:49 GMT -5
What is it that you see in his writing that you think would require full time effort. Whenever I've read him it appears he's merely summarizing stuff from MNKD's own SEC filings, and much of it is same info from one article to the next simply updated, such as adding $12.5M to cash table. He does have his sales "model", but that is easy enough to do in excel and plot results.
As someone stated earlier, if one really wants to to do due diligence, simply go to the SEC site and read filings. Get the info straight from MNKD without any spin.
I'd gladly take that job if it's full time, as I think it would take me no more than a few hours a week.
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Post by mnkdfann on Apr 15, 2019 19:32:43 GMT -5
A laughing stock, the CEO is making himself and the company a laughing stock! In caps I might add...one of Spencer‘s comments. That seems a little biased to me. Who covers a stock like that? I probably wasn't the only one wondering exactly what Spencer wrote, so I looked it up and posted it below. What I find interesting is that MNKD was promoting Symphony's numbers over those of IMS not long ago. Spencer wrote: seekingalpha.com/article/4253095-mannkind-afrezza-scripts-jump-close-quarter#comment-81513453A LAUGHING STOCK!!!!!!! The CEO is making himself and the company a LAUGHING STOCK!
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Post by ktim on Apr 15, 2019 19:41:35 GMT -5
Reading of the weekly tea leaves would be far less important if management could offer quarterly guidance, and actually deliver to it. However, if the low end of the realistic range they could commit to is something that would be spook investors, I guess I can see where there would be a tendency to say nothing and hope for hitting higher end of what they feel is possible. Counter argument is that transparency would be good.
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Post by prcgorman2 on Apr 15, 2019 19:58:14 GMT -5
HA! It is interesting to me that Mannkind breaks Twitter radio silence to comment on the Symphony reporting errors. One of my last posts said that understanding the current Rx picture is complicated by many factors, one of them being Symphony’s admitted errors in reporting. They minimized their issues to being only a few percent, but let’s be honest, they sure has heck wouldn’t want to admit to a large error. More to come I’m sure.
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Post by sportsrancho on Apr 15, 2019 20:14:22 GMT -5
A laughing stock, the CEO is making himself and the company a laughing stock! In caps I might add...one of Spencer‘s comments. That seems a little biased to me. Who covers a stock like that? I probably wasn't the only one wondering exactly what Spencer wrote, so I looked it up and posted it below. What I find interesting is that MNKD was promoting Symphony's numbers over those of IMS not long ago. Spencer wrote: seekingalpha.com/article/4253095-mannkind-afrezza-scripts-jump-close-quarter#comment-81513453A LAUGHING STOCK!!!!!!! The CEO is making himself and the company a LAUGHING STOCK! But what about this... I am not understanding the analysis and commentary here. So here is my perspective. The point is not whether IMS or Symphony numbers are higher than each other for any given week. If you are comparing them, it needs to be about the direction they are moving. The methodologies / calculations are different, and Mike made reference to the fact that they move in the same direction but IMS numbers are closer to MannKind numbers. The Data I don't know how to post a table in ProBoards, so excuse the format below. WK | # | IMS | Symp | 3/15 | 1 | 578 | 617 | 3/22 | 2 | 571 | 606 | 3/29 | 3 | 622 | 689 | 4/5 | 4 | 643 | ? | Observations - Both showed a slight (1-2%) drop between weeks 1 and 2 - Both had a moderate (~9% and ~14%) uptick between weeks 2 and 3 - IMS had slight (~3%) growth between weeks 3 and 4 - Symphony data had a pharmacy that did not report in week 4, so the number provided (582) was off Based on IMS trend, full Symphony numbers last week may have shown 710 TRx (assuming same growth rate as IMS). Maybe it would have been lower, maybe higher, but obviously the 582 is nothing more than a wrong data point based on incorrect numbers from Symphony. Again - not sure why people are comparing Symphony and IMS directly. They have different methodologies. And I could use an explanation as to why Mike's tweet was incorrect. He told us that IMS reported a week-on-week increase for that week and that Symphony provided incomplete data for the same week. Which make complete sense if you look at the trends in the scripts from both providers. He was not saying that IMS is higher than Symphony...it hasn't been for any week until this one, which is due to bad Symphony numbers. He was saying IMS scripts increased over the previous week's IMS scripts. I wrote this out just to cut through some of the noise around TRx numbers but I agree with mannmade that the only thing that matters is how the scripts impact revenue. Which I won't speculate on as the correlation between TRx and Revenue is less easy to eyeball than the correlation between the trends in IMS and Symphony scripts. Read more: mnkd.proboards.com/thread/2679/symphony-script-data?page=54#ixzz5lDUZkRGL
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Post by bones1026 on Apr 15, 2019 20:42:45 GMT -5
Absolutely amazes me that there are people here that think SO is just a guy with a weird hobby. This guy has been formulating these articles (as you mentioned, there are many brains contributing to these articles, he’s not doing this all on his own) for years. It absolutely is his FULL TIME ‘job’ And no, his articles are not causing anyone here to buy or sell, that’s because we have seen these for years...but you can bet there are others who may be thinking about investing, begin their due diligence by googling MNKD, and guess what they all see...negative article after negative article by SO, who they think must be reputable, since he is getting all these articles published, not knowing that Seeking Alpha is basically a journalism ‘chop shop’ Before everyone jumps in with “he is not hindering doctors from prescribing Afrezza”....I realize that...but him, AF and all the others, have always made me feel like I’ve been partially cheated out of my investment...and honestly, I’m tired of it I think you are seriously over-estimating the amount of work that goes into one of those articles. Essentially they are a summary of the weeks events, a couple of graphs from a spreadsheet, and the payment spreadsheet. All he needs to do is put in the weeks numbers into the model, and write a bit of commentary. I seriously doubt it's more than a couple of hours work a week at the most. He is simply making the other side of the argument. With a micro-cap like Mannkind you wouldn't waste time with articles if you wanted to manipulate the price, you would do it via the market. It's a lot more quicker and more certain. “He is simply making the other side of the argument”.. WHY?? If he claims to not be shorting the stock, or discloses he is t compensated in anyway (don’t tell me about the chump change he makes from SA) All I ever wanted was an answer to that question?! Why?
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Post by mnkdfann on Apr 15, 2019 21:03:49 GMT -5
A laughing stock, the CEO is making himself and the company a laughing stock! In caps I might add...one of Spencer‘s comments. That seems a little biased to me. Who covers a stock like that? I probably wasn't the only one wondering exactly what Spencer wrote, so I looked it up and posted it below. What I find interesting is that MNKD was promoting Symphony's numbers over those of IMS not long ago. Spencer wrote: seekingalpha.com/article/4253095-mannkind-afrezza-scripts-jump-close-quarter#comment-81513453A LAUGHING STOCK!!!!!!! The CEO is making himself and the company a LAUGHING STOCK! I'm not thrilled with the way my post was edited, but whatever. I encourage people to look at the actual link for the full comment. The LAUGHING STOCK bit was a VERY minimal part of the entire comment, and I think the more interesting bit was the reminder that MNKD was actually promoting Symphony's numbers over those of IMS not that long ago,
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Post by mnkdfann on Apr 15, 2019 21:09:48 GMT -5
I think you are seriously over-estimating the amount of work that goes into one of those articles. Essentially they are a summary of the weeks events, a couple of graphs from a spreadsheet, and the payment spreadsheet. All he needs to do is put in the weeks numbers into the model, and write a bit of commentary. I seriously doubt it's more than a couple of hours work a week at the most. He is simply making the other side of the argument. With a micro-cap like Mannkind you wouldn't waste time with articles if you wanted to manipulate the price, you would do it via the market. It's a lot more quicker and more certain. “He is simply making the other side of the argument”.. WHY?? If he claims to not be shorting the stock, or discloses he is t compensated in anyway (don’t tell me about the chump change he makes from SA) All I ever wanted was an answer to that question?! Why? If you read his articles regularly, you should have seen that he has answered the WHY many, many, MANY times. Personally, I don't understand why it is okay for people to comment on movies, or music, or books, or sports teams, or the weather, etc., just out of interest, but when you comment on a stock it automatically means one is being compensated for it.
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Post by sportsrancho on Apr 15, 2019 21:11:14 GMT -5
I'm not thrilled with the way my post was edited, but whatever. I encourage people to look at the actual link for the full comment. The LAUGHING STOCK bit was a VERY minimal part of the entire comment, and I think the more interesting bit was the reminder that MNKD was actually promoting Symphony's numbers over those of IMS not that long ago, Yes I understand which was confusing to me because he had said before, a long along time before that they used IMS, and actually quoted the numbers ...🤷♀️
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Post by mnkdfann on Apr 15, 2019 21:22:17 GMT -5
My simplified take on it:
WK | # | IMS | Symp | 3/15 | 1 | 578 | 617 | 3/22 | 2 | 571 | 606 | 3/29 | 3 | 622 | 689 | 4/5 | 4 | 643 | 582 |
It has been suggested by SO that the 689 is the outlier. That the sales reps made a real push to get the last week / end of quarter TRx number as high as possible. Let's accept that as a premise.
In that case, the 689 is the outlier.
If you accept that, then the Symphony numbers have really been generally trending down while the IMS numbers have been generally trending up.
Maybe that makes perfect sense if some current Afrezza users are switching to Eagle scripts. Symphony (everyone tells me) does not capture those scripts. Perhaps IMS does? (Of course, there are also totally new patients going to Eagle hence IMS numbers are going up faster than Symphony's are going down.)
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Post by mnkdfann on Apr 15, 2019 21:32:58 GMT -5
I'm not thrilled with the way my post was edited, but whatever. I encourage people to look at the actual link for the full comment. The LAUGHING STOCK bit was a VERY minimal part of the entire comment, and I think the more interesting bit was the reminder that MNKD was actually promoting Symphony's numbers over those of IMS not that long ago, Yes I understand which was confusing to me because he had said before, a long along time before that they used IMS, and actually quoted the numbers ...🤷♀️ This is probably part of what he is talking about, quite recently from from Q4: 02-26-19 seekingalpha.com/article/4244441-mannkind-corporation-mnkd-ceo-michael-castagna-q4-2018-results-earnings-call-transcript?part=singleMichael Castagna Yes. No Oren, when we use symphonies, so all the data you see were not impacted by what we do with the IQVIA switch, I think we should go back and compare you know what we see in IMS trends historically, because they were always have a 5% to 8% higher on a weekly basis, but our SYMPHONY data is what we look at and I can tell you that is pretty consistent with our factory data. ... But today, I can tell you our SYMPHONY sales and what we showed you and what you have seen, weekly in SYMPHONY is directionally correlated with what we see in our shipments to pharmacies. They are off high a little bit, but I will call it within a 5% variance. So nothing major, and it may vary by one or two weeks, one way or another, but in general, there are in sync.
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Post by longliner on Apr 15, 2019 22:08:50 GMT -5
“He is simply making the other side of the argument”.. WHY?? If he claims to not be shorting the stock, or discloses he is t compensated in anyway (don’t tell me about the chump change he makes from SA) All I ever wanted was an answer to that question?! Why? If you read his articles regularly, you should have seen that he has answered the WHY many, many, MANY times. Personally, I don't understand why it is okay for people to comment on movies, or music, or books, or sports teams, or the weather, etc., just out of interest, but when you comment on a stock it automatically means one is being compensated for it. Oh yes, he comments on it, and is available every day, all day, to comment on it. A Company he has no interest in, no stake in?? Similar to a number of well intentioned posters on this stream. Just wanted to give thanks at this blessed time of year for the fair and balanced commentary.
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Post by cedafuntennis on Apr 15, 2019 22:29:07 GMT -5
Yes I understand which was confusing to me because he had said before, a long along time before that they used IMS, and actually quoted the numbers ...🤷♀️ This is probably part of what he is talking about, quite recently from from Q4: 02-26-19 seekingalpha.com/article/4244441-mannkind-corporation-mnkd-ceo-michael-castagna-q4-2018-results-earnings-call-transcript?part=singleMichael Castagna Yes. No Oren, when we use symphonies, so all the data you see were not impacted by what we do with the IQVIA switch, I think we should go back and compare you know what we see in IMS trends historically, because they were always have a 5% to 8% higher on a weekly basis, but our SYMPHONY data is what we look at and I can tell you that is pretty consistent with our factory data. ... But today, I can tell you our SYMPHONY sales and what we showed you and what you have seen, weekly in SYMPHONY is directionally correlated with what we see in our shipments to pharmacies. They are off high a little bit, but I will call it within a 5% variance. So nothing major, and it may vary by one or two weeks, one way or another, but in general, there are in sync. It was reported that last week's Symphony numbers missed a pharmacy which did not report. As trend to IMS numbers was always correct, it stands to reason that the 588 was wrong and the actual number would have been in the 700+ range.
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Post by ktim on Apr 16, 2019 0:16:24 GMT -5
I think you are seriously over-estimating the amount of work that goes into one of those articles. Essentially they are a summary of the weeks events, a couple of graphs from a spreadsheet, and the payment spreadsheet. All he needs to do is put in the weeks numbers into the model, and write a bit of commentary. I seriously doubt it's more than a couple of hours work a week at the most. He is simply making the other side of the argument. With a micro-cap like Mannkind you wouldn't waste time with articles if you wanted to manipulate the price, you would do it via the market. It's a lot more quicker and more certain. “He is simply making the other side of the argument”.. WHY?? If he claims to not be shorting the stock, or discloses he is t compensated in anyway (don’t tell me about the chump change he makes from SA) All I ever wanted was an answer to that question?! Why? One logical explanation might be that he is looking for opportunity to build a reputation for himself that might be parlayed into something of value. It would certainly look good if he cautions about MNKD as investment during this prolonged period of turmoil and dilution and then were to switch his view and say buy, buy, buy right before a sustained multi-year run up. But attributing that to him would be a pure guess. Obviously none of us can know, unless willing to put in a lot of detective work. Another why question I might ask concerning your theory is why are many short seller very vocal about their short positions but it seems you think there are big boys behind shorting MNKD that for some reason remain silent. Often if a hedge fund is attacking a company, they say they are and get all over TV talking about it. It lends credibility to a call to short a stock if the person saying it has actually bet their own money on the position, just as it does with people talking up a stock. Is paying SO to write articles on SA really going to have bigger influence than if some successful hedge fund manager got on CNBC and bad mouthed Afrezza? To my knowledge I don't even think SO has said he thinks MNKD should be shorted, merely that there are still risks for a long position. Please do correct me if he's actually recommended shorting MNKD.
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