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Post by rickf on Aug 26, 2019 10:21:18 GMT -5
How come never is not an option Hmmm - because I was hoping for a smidgen of optimism? My ave sp is pitiful ---- $7.43 before the split so I am now thinking it has to go to $37.14 (after the split) before I will even break even --- getting there, now THATS a challenge!!
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Post by prcgorman2 on Aug 26, 2019 10:34:41 GMT -5
Want to cheer yourself up? Go look at the weekly sales for Humalog and Novolog and Apidra and then think what percentage of those sales will be replaced by Afrezza once PWDs A) can't remember what it was like before CGMs, and B) want pancreas-like control to kill spikes.
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Post by churchmouse on Aug 26, 2019 10:38:08 GMT -5
I'm looking forward to the day when I can be optimistic again.
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Post by awesomo on Aug 26, 2019 10:45:15 GMT -5
Want to cheer yourself up? Go look at the weekly sales for Humalog and Novolog and Apidra and then think what percentage of those sales will be replaced by Afrezza once PWDs A) can't remember what it was like before CGMs, and B) want pancreas-like control to kill spikes. And then look at script “growth” for 2019 and the cheer completely dissipates.
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Post by sweedee79 on Aug 26, 2019 11:51:03 GMT -5
I'm more worried about right now and staying above 1$.. loans are contingent on Afrezza sales.. I'll think about chances of reaching pre-split numbers after we are out of the woods..
From what I gather there is nothing but resistance above and not much support below.. sure hope Mike is on top of all of this..
Been lots of promises made these past 2 years.. some good things coming together but we aren't there yet..
I didn't get all excited about Mike's interview.. I want to see results. Another molecule and partnership would be great too.. or seeing scripts rise substantially, something to add support to the SP.. I don't see that yet.. No more dilution or RS..
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Post by tingtongtung on Aug 26, 2019 13:56:39 GMT -5
Want to cheer yourself up? Go look at the weekly sales for Humalog and Novolog and Apidra and then think what percentage of those sales will be replaced by Afrezza once PWDs A) can't remember what it was like before CGMs, and B) want pancreas-like control to kill spikes. Even better.. You know who wants to work with MNKD? It's Vdex. Who are they? Verily (Google) + Dexcom. But, MNKD wants to go alone. It's just a joke people!! Actually, it used to be one of the active discussions back in the days, when we used to day dream about who are competing to buy MNKD, and at what price, and what we were going to do with our millions.
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Post by cretin11 on Aug 26, 2019 16:23:21 GMT -5
How come never is not an option Hmmm - because I was hoping for a smidgen of optimism? My ave sp is pitiful ---- $7.43 before the split so I am now thinking it has to go to $37.14 (after the split) before I will even break even --- getting there, now THATS a challenge!! Poorly designed poll. "Never" should be an option, otherwise the results are so skewed as to be meaningless. Also, specify what share price, not just "pre-split" price, because pre-split price was an enormous range. Unless you meant the price immediately before reverse split? But that's not clear. Sorry, i don't mean to be harsh, especially given your average share price. I feel your pain (my most expensive shares cost me $11, aka $55 split-adjusted)! I've averaged down more than you, but getting to break even will indeed be a challenge and the odds are definitely not looking good for it to ever happen.
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Post by cretin11 on Aug 26, 2019 16:25:41 GMT -5
Want to cheer yourself up? Go look at the weekly sales for Humalog and Novolog and Apidra and then think what percentage of those sales will be replaced by Afrezza once PWDs A) can't remember what it was like before CGMs, and B) want pancreas-like control to kill spikes. PRC love the optimism, but for some crazy reason when I look at weekly sales for Humalog/Novolog/Apidra, cheered up is NOT what I feel!
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Post by prcgorman2 on Aug 26, 2019 16:47:17 GMT -5
Ah, but you should! Those are the competitors but they come with a hangover - almost literally. But THEY are making the big bucks, for now. When people get used to seeing control and having control available to them in a way that is easier, more quickly effective, and less dangerous hypos, Afrezza is going to be like crack. At least that's what I keep telling myself. :-)
I didn't respond to the survey, but if I had, I would have said years (3 to 5). That sounds awful to some people. I'm pleased it feels like a realistic expectation. Back in 2017 I was seriously wondering what would become of Afrezza if Mannkind went bankrupt.
If someone came to you and provided proof of a time machine that allowed them to foretell the future and they said, "MNKD is a stock selling for just above a dollar, and in 3 to 5 years it will be selling for more than 10x that price" you would be pretty surprised by the whole time machine and fortune telling, but also be really happy that MNKD was going to be selling for more than 10x it's current PPS in 3 to 5 years. :-)
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Post by ktim on Aug 26, 2019 18:44:09 GMT -5
While I certainly still believe there is significant upside potential I don't feel it likely we'll ever see split adjusted levels making those pre RS shares whole. There simply has been too much dilution. Additionally my sense of prospects for Afrezza have been altered somewhat by seeing the uptake of pumps and prospects for AP, which I think is a credible competitor to Afrezza for T1. And there always is possibility of some new treatment looking more like a cure using genetic manipulation or implanted beta cells. Though its good the patent runway on Afrezza is quite long, so that a generic TS insulin isn't a significant worry.
It's not impossible to revisit those levels but I think it would take MNKD branching out from just Afrezza and TS. At its height MNKD did have ambitions well beyond just TS, such as in oncology. But at this point that would be mere wishful thinking.
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Post by prcgorman2 on Aug 27, 2019 10:13:31 GMT -5
I would have guessed only agedhippie would ever say pumps & etc. would be a "credible competitor to Afrezza for T1". That certainly doesn't seem to have been the sentiment of the Afrezza-using T1s I've seen write or video about their experiences. In any case, if Afrezza is ever going to be the driver for pre-RS stock price and an embarrassment of riches (instead of an embarrassment of embarrassing verbal faux pas'), it will be because of T2 diabetes.
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Post by cretin11 on Aug 27, 2019 10:53:00 GMT -5
Ah, but you should! Those are the competitors but they come with a hangover - almost literally. But THEY are making the big bucks, for now. When people get used to seeing control and having control available to them in a way that is easier, more quickly effective, and less dangerous hypos, Afrezza is going to be like crack. At least that's what I keep telling myself. :-) I didn't respond to the survey, but if I had, I would have said years (3 to 5). That sounds awful to some people. I'm pleased it feels like a realistic expectation. Back in 2017 I was seriously wondering what would become of Afrezza if Mannkind went bankrupt. If someone came to you and provided proof of a time machine that allowed them to foretell the future and they said, "MNKD is a stock selling for just above a dollar, and in 3 to 5 years it will be selling for more than 10x that price" you would be pretty surprised by the whole time machine and fortune telling, but also be really happy that MNKD was going to be selling for more than 10x it's current PPS in 3 to 5 years. :-) 3 to 5 years to get back to pre-reverse split share price?! Wow, that doesn't sound awful to me, sounds like a dream. I'd take that in a heartbeat. Unfortunately, if "never" had been an option for the poll it would be the most realistic choice. Every one of us expected Afrezza to take off and unfortunately we were wrong. Years later the share price is less than 2% (aka 1/50 or ONE FIFTIETH - painful to even type that) of what we paid after FDA approval and we are desperate for enough traction to get MNKD to break even within several years. How much dilution that will require is the question, not "when will we get to pre-RS share price." I'm afraid that time machine is fantasy, just like all the cool movies with time machines.
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Post by ktim on Aug 27, 2019 10:56:15 GMT -5
I would have guessed only agedhippie would ever say pumps & etc. would be a "credible competitor to Afrezza for T1". That certainly doesn't seem to have been the sentiment of the Afrezza-using T1s I've seen write or video about their experiences. In any case, if Afrezza is ever going to be the driver for pre-RS stock price and an embarrassment of riches (instead of an embarrassment of embarrassing verbal faux pas'), it will be because of T2 diabetes. Not just Aged, our CEO recently stated that they are seeing rapid pump adoption as potentially limiting to Afrezza in T1 space, though with some pump users having Afrezza as auxiliary to knock down highs. You say "the sentiment of the Afrezza-using T1s"... so of course they prefer what they've selected. Have you watched similar number of videos of people using pumps, especially the closed loop ones? Ford truck drivers are going to like Fords and say Chevy is bad and there are Chevy drivers that will say the inverse... or Canon vs Nikon. If you only viewed testimonials from one side, you're doing a self selection that will definitely bias your view. Closed loop systems are still quite new (actually I guess still considered experimental). It does appear that some are achieving impressive TIR. In some cases apparently better than the Afrezza TIR results... though a closed loop system is optimizing basal and prandial, whereas no trial yet has looked at joint titration to optimize Afrezza along with a basal. It seems closed loop systems will soon be on the market that can produce quite good results for patients. Some will hate the idea of having an invasive device and might think Afrezza a better choice... some may prefer having a device that doesn't require them to do anything. Without doing some sort of survey of that question, I wouldn't presume to know what the breakdown would be. Being non-diabetic I don't even have personal experience relevant to the question. [with the caveat that Afrezza may have a unique ability if one likes indulging in spontaneous sugar bombs, and lots of people do]
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Post by prcgorman2 on Aug 27, 2019 12:24:20 GMT -5
Ah, but you should! Those are the competitors but they come with a hangover - almost literally. But THEY are making the big bucks, for now. When people get used to seeing control and having control available to them in a way that is easier, more quickly effective, and less dangerous hypos, Afrezza is going to be like crack. At least that's what I keep telling myself. :-) I didn't respond to the survey, but if I had, I would have said years (3 to 5). That sounds awful to some people. I'm pleased it feels like a realistic expectation. Back in 2017 I was seriously wondering what would become of Afrezza if Mannkind went bankrupt. If someone came to you and provided proof of a time machine that allowed them to foretell the future and they said, "MNKD is a stock selling for just above a dollar, and in 3 to 5 years it will be selling for more than 10x that price" you would be pretty surprised by the whole time machine and fortune telling, but also be really happy that MNKD was going to be selling for more than 10x it's current PPS in 3 to 5 years. :-) 3 to 5 years to get back to pre-reverse split share price?! Wow, that doesn't sound awful to me, sounds like a dream. I'd take that in a heartbeat. Unfortunately, if "never" had been an option for the poll it would be the most realistic choice. Every one of us expected Afrezza to take off and unfortunately we were wrong. Years later the share price is less than 2% (aka 1/50 or ONE FIFTIETH - painful to even type that) of what we paid after FDA approval and we are desperate for enough traction to get MNKD to break even within several years. How much dilution that will require is the question, not "when will we get to pre-RS share price." I'm afraid that time machine is fantasy, just like all the cool movies with time machines. Fantasy perhaps but all investing has in common risk and the guarantee that future returns are not guaranteed, especially so if profit requires a substantial increase in PPS. But on this point, I don't know what other folks have calculated is possible, but if you build a semi-elaborate spreadsheet and fill it with assumptions of what "success" and "exit" should look like, and then model in variable views for P/E for biopharma stocks, the market cap and PPS can be quite impressive. Much, much better than only 10x the current stock price.
It's all about market share, because those who currently hold mealtime insulin market share are taking in billions of dollars a year (which is a good incentive to spend some money on crushing potential competition - even TreT may have been a move to co-opt competition with Tyvaso).
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Post by cretin11 on Aug 27, 2019 15:16:44 GMT -5
Agree, it's all about market share. There's the rub.
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