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Post by ktim on Aug 29, 2019 11:21:59 GMT -5
Agree with everything although curious if your COGS estimate is linear. It won't be. That's part of (er, the main?) benefit of Brazil, and later India is overall reduction in COGS per unit. At low sales, COGS is probably nearly linear so you may be right enough. I've heard some use 5.5 x sales as a general valuation. I take that to include royalties, and collaborations. Using an example from this thread, where we might have $100 mil in actual Afrezza sales with another $40 million in Tre-T income, I'd use 5.5 x $140 mil = 770 mil. / 200 mil. shares = $3.85/share. Doesn't sound like much but from $1.09 today to $3.85 in 2 years is an 88% CAGR. I'd be alright with it. All of this is, of course, back-of-the-napkin math, but we do all have the time. I think you're a bit light on share count with everything factored in, but I still think that price is within realm of possibility by then.
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Post by castlerockchris on Aug 29, 2019 18:06:42 GMT -5
3b market cap $18 give or take. 18 months give or take. JMHO But of course certain things have to happen to see that... I would pay big bucks to see a share price of $18! oh wait, I already paid big bucks. We hit $18 per share and I will disappear from this board forever... Of course someone has now recorded that i made this promise and the minute I post after the share is $18 they will throw it in my proverbial face. Anyone interested in buying my shares for $18 each so we can test if I am being truthful?
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