|
|
Post by mannmade on Dec 9, 2019 13:55:48 GMT -5
It is that time of year again... Yes the holidays are here and so is the end of another year of hope and frustration for the Mannkind Shareholders... I for one have been here since 2008 and know many others have been here as long and possibly longer...
So aside from any speculation on share price and/or deals to be made, what exactly can mnkd shareholders look forward to in 2020? I must admit I have not been stayng on top of the events lately so please feel free to correct any mistatements of mine, which I apologize for in advance.
1. Cash Situation for 2020:
According to the most recent Seeking Alpha article, Mannkind will end 2019 with $46m in cash.
UTHR milestones for Trep T will provide an additional $25m.
Afrezza Sales I will generously estimate at $35m net to mnkd (including 1 or 2 more Brazilian purchases)
This equals $106m which should be enough to get thru 2019
If it is not enough or the timing of cash infusions does not meet the date of debt or expenses there is an additional $35m
from the Midcap Loan Agreement.
In addition, the 12.31.19 warrants are NOT likely to be exercised and so an additional number of shares at a $1.60 valuation will be returned, giving another $30m or so at today's valuation.
So cash will not likely be an issue in 2020.
2. What else can we expect in 2020?
a. Peds completion and submission to FDA.
b. Possible further change in SOC?
c. Start of trials in India
d. Canada/Mexico submissions
e. The long awaited second UTHR molecule
f. Submission of Trep T for nda
g. Ultra Fast Acting Label?
Not sure what else there may be but I am just trying to set the table for realistic expectations on positive events for 2020.
It seems that if mnkd gets thru 2020 with no negative events, then by 2021 assuming Trep T approval by late 2020, mnkd may finally be in sight of a real break even.
Please feel free to comment.
|
|
|
|
Post by porkini on Dec 9, 2019 14:32:52 GMT -5
It is that time of year again... Yes the holidays are here and so is the end of another year of hope and frustration for the Mannkind Shareholders... I for one have been here since 2008 and know many others have been here as long and possibly longer... So aside from any speculation on share price and/or deals to be made, what exactly can mnkd shareholders look forward to in 2020? I must admit I have not been stayng on top of the events lately so please feel free to correct any mistatements of mine, which I apologize for in advance. 1. Cash Situation for 2020: According to the most recent Seeking Alpha article, Mannkind will end 2019 with $46m in cash. UTHR milestones for Trep T will provide an additional $25m. Afrezza Sales I will generously estimate at $35m net to mnkd (including 1 or 2 more Brazilian purchases) This equals $106m which should be enough to get thru 2019 If it is not enough or the timing of cash infusions does not meet the date of debt or expenses there is an additional $35m from the Midcap Loan Agreement. In addition, the 12.31.19 warrants are NOT likely to be exercised and so an additional number of shares at a $1.60 valuation will be returned, giving another $30m or so at today's valuation. So cash will not likely be an issue in 2020. 2. What else can we expect in 2020? a. Peds completion and submission to FDA. b. Possible further change in SOC? c. Start of trials in India d. Canada/Mexico submissions e. The long awaited second UTHR molecule f. Submission of Trep T for nda g. Ultra Fast Acting Label? Not sure what else there may be but I am just trying to set the table for realistic expectations on positive events for 2020. It seems that if mnkd gets thru 2020 with no negative events, then by 2021 assuming Trep T approval by late 2020, mnkd may finally be in sight of a real break even. Please feel free to comment. I notice you did mention Brazil, I will mention Australia for no particular reason (I need to look for specific reason why I mention that...). (for starts, see mnkd.proboards.com/post/185666/thread) |
|
|
|
Post by mytakeonit on Dec 9, 2019 14:52:34 GMT -5
And don't forget India and China and Japan ...  And my tentupling my share holdings. But, that's mytakeonit |
|
|
|
Post by sportsrancho on Dec 9, 2019 14:56:38 GMT -5
From JK
“For net revenue to increase 40-50% during 2020 may be a stretch. To understand the interest burden assuming MannKind borrows all three Tranches: interest will increase from $6.562 million to 8.062 million per year. That is IF MidCap keeps the interest rate at 10.75%.
As I said MidCap is in business to make $. MidCap placed requirements on Afrezza Castagna believe he could achieve and within 6 months MidCap demonstrates they can better model Afrezza than Castagna. That doesn't instill faith in Castagna's skills to market Afrezza.
The person that should be able to model Afrezza with greatest precision is Castagna. If as I estimate, MidCap outwitted Castagna and now will earn 10.75% on the $40 million. That begs the question: What will MidCap demand for future loans?“
From rocndoc
”AGAIN...THERE IS NO CASH FLOW PROBLEM FOR 2020
You already agreed with SPENCER OSBORNE that they end 2019 with $46mm then you both added the $25mm from the two $12.5 tranches to get $71mm. You stated 2020 has a $80mm cash burn. So we all agree. $80mm-$71mm = $9mm shortfall ok
Now mnkd had an increased gross revenue at year end of about 50% from fy 2018. 2018 gross revenue was $36,381,260. Projected 2019 gross revenue(projected since we have a few more weeks left till Dec.31 2019) is about $56,000,000. That is a little over 50% increase. Therefore if we get the same increase in 2021 we get about $84,000,000 and therefore a $28,000,000 increase in gross revenue.
Now any businessman knows that they will only need to subtract variable expenses from gross revenue to get net revenue from this $28mm. Variable expenses are a small part of total expenses since you already have paid the fixed expenses before the revenue increase. Expenses like rent most of employee expenses. They will not need more administrative costs, they will not need to increase the sales staff by much if at all. Their insulin costs are on a contract and so are mainly fixed.If they don't use it they loose it. Therefor you can figure variable expense to be about 30% ,if that much. Therefore about 70% of the $28mm is net revenue. $28mm x 70% = $19.6mm.
Now subtract your $9mm 2020 shortfall from the $19.6mm and you get $10.6mm year end cash. There is no deficit.
Also you keep forgetting about the 23.3mm shares of unused stock options since the stock will end 2019 under the $1.60 exercise price. Even if they only sell the stock for say only $1.25 a share they will have an additional $29,125,000. therefore $10.6mm + $29.125mm = $39,725,000 net cash at the end of 2020.
I haven't even figured in additional sales to Brazil,India and Australia. Also any possible deals with other pharmacies like UTHR for additional drug partnerships. Also left out the possible cash from the second molecule if it works out with UTHR.
Worrying about a 2% increase in interest rates is very short sighted in my opinion. It's chicken feed in the grand scheme of things. As you stated MidCap is in the business of making money. Why would they kill their golden goose if it continues to pay off and it is growing. If they looked at Mannkind financial history and saw a serious problem they would not have loaned out the money in the first place. I'm sure they feel they have sufficient collateral in all of Mannkind's assets. I'm sure they enjoy the occasional interest increase and mannkind can afford to pay it as I have just demonstrated above.
As MNKD grows in 2020 and 2021 their cash position will increase exponentially. Especially when they start getting TrepT sales revenue sometime at the end of 2020 or beginning of 2021 and also get to start selling Afrezza to pediatric patients after approval at the end of 2020 or sometime in 2021.”
|
|
|
|
Post by seanismorris on Dec 9, 2019 15:25:51 GMT -5
We should prepare for poor Afrezza scrips for January & February, and hope UTHR news keeps MNKD stock afloat.
I’m not sure what to make of Afrezza internationally, until Afrezza is being sold in the EU and Japan, I don’t see much volume. MannKind’s management doesn’t see to care about aggressive pricing to get market share, without that I doesn’t see sales in India or Brazil impressing.
The Pediatric market & study data is a wild card. Would MannKind renew their marketing efforts? This seems to be the easiest way to get the markets interest and get to $5... (2nd half of 2020)
As always, MannKind needs more Technosphere partners... UTHR FDA news/interest could make this happen.
|
|
|
|
Post by brotherm1 on Dec 9, 2019 16:42:12 GMT -5
From JK “For net revenue to increase 40-50% during 2020 may be a stretch. To understand the interest burden assuming MannKind borrows all three Tranches: interest will increase from $6.562 million to 8.062 million per year. That is IF MidCap keeps the interest rate at 10.75%. As I said MidCap is in business to make $. MidCap placed requirements on Afrezza Castagna believe he could achieve and within 6 months MidCap demonstrates they can better model Afrezza than Castagna. That doesn't instill faith in Castagna's skills to market Afrezza. The person that should be able to model Afrezza with greatest precision is Castagna. If as I estimate, MidCap outwitted Castagna and now will earn 10.75% on the $40 million. That begs the question: What will MidCap demand for future loans?“ From rocndoc ”AGAIN...THERE IS NO CASH FLOW PROBLEM FOR 2020 You already agreed with SPENCER OSBORNE that they end 2019 with $46mm then you both added the $25mm from the two $12.5 tranches to get $71mm. You stated 2020 has a $80mm cash burn. So we all agree. $80mm-$71mm = $9mm shortfall ok Now mnkd had an increased gross revenue at year end of about 50% from fy 2018. 2018 gross revenue was $36,381,260. Projected 2019 gross revenue(projected since we have a few more weeks left till Dec.31 2019) is about $56,000,000. That is a little over 50% increase. Therefore if we get the same increase in 2021 we get about $84,000,000 and therefore a $28,000,000 increase in gross revenue. Now any businessman knows that they will only need to subtract variable expenses from gross revenue to get net revenue from this $28mm. Variable expenses are a small part of total expenses since you already have paid the fixed expenses before the revenue increase. Expenses like rent most of employee expenses. They will not need more administrative costs, they will not need to increase the sales staff by much if at all. Their insulin costs are on a contract and so are mainly fixed.If they don't use it they loose it. Therefor you can figure variable expense to be about 30% ,if that much. Therefore about 70% of the $28mm is net revenue. $28mm x 70% = $19.6mm. Now subtract your $9mm 2020 shortfall from the $19.6mm and you get $10.6mm year end cash. There is no deficit. Also you keep forgetting about the 23.3mm shares of unused stock options since the stock will end 2019 under the $1.60 exercise price. Even if they only sell the stock for say only $1.25 a share they will have an additional $29,125,000. therefore $10.6mm + $29.125mm = $39,725,000 net cash at the end of 2020. I haven't even figured in additional sales to Brazil,India and Australia. Also any possible deals with other pharmacies like UTHR for additional drug partnerships. Also left out the possible cash from the second molecule if it works out with UTHR. Worrying about a 2% increase in interest rates is very short sighted in my opinion. It's chicken feed in the grand scheme of things. As you stated MidCap is in the business of making money. Why would they kill their golden goose if it continues to pay off and it is growing. If they looked at Mannkind financial history and saw a serious problem they would not have loaned out the money in the first place. I'm sure they feel they have sufficient collateral in all of Mannkind's assets. I'm sure they enjoy the occasional interest increase and mannkind can afford to pay it as I have just demonstrated above. As MNKD grows in 2020 and 2021 their cash position will increase exponentially. Especially when they start getting TrepT sales revenue sometime at the end of 2020 or beginning of 2021 and also get to start selling Afrezza to pediatric patients after approval at the end of 2020 or sometime in 2021.” I wouldn’t count on Afrezza sales growing 50% over 2019. And, if I remember correctly we need to keep $15 million in cash escrow for midcap. When/if we receive the two $12.5 tranches from UTHR is a mystery. Even if we do receive them in 2020, if we do not receive the 2nd before the summer sometime, I think we’ll be seeing more dilution around then as we need to dilute months in advance of needing the cash. |
|
|
|
Post by sportsrancho on Dec 9, 2019 16:46:15 GMT -5
I think you’re right.
|
|
|
|
Post by mytakeonit on Dec 9, 2019 17:25:26 GMT -5
sports ... is that another gut feeling? Because you know that you don't have a gut to speak of. Now if you want to know what a REAL GUT feeling is ... I'm loading up on MNKD shares.
But, that's mytakeonit
|
|
|
|
Post by parrerob on Dec 9, 2019 17:28:00 GMT -5
We should close 2019 with 59/60 milions gross sales.... if Afrezza continue to grow slowly We will have Q1 not so exciting, yes... but should be similar to q4 2019 that is exciting now.
I Am saying that Afrezza should sell beteeen 80 and 90 milion dollars in 2020.... giving something like 15 millions NET before the summer....
And this is the Slow scenario.
Afrezza is far away from giving MNKD the break even but do not forget that It will be no more a 'cost' and will produce some, even if little, net for the company..... 15 milions could be what we miss until UHTR upfronts.
|
|
|
|
Post by ltta on Dec 9, 2019 20:38:40 GMT -5
I hope 2020 brings some word on manuscripts and abstracts. On the last quarterly call the slide said 4Q2019 and 1Q2020. Were there any publications 4Q2019?
|
|
|
|
Post by sportsrancho on Dec 9, 2019 21:13:21 GMT -5
sports ... is that another gut feeling? Because you know that you don't have a gut to speak of. Now if you want to know what a REAL GUT feeling is ... I'm loading up on MNKD shares. But, that's mytakeonit Ha, no it is not a gut feeling. I just know he’s a lot better at numbers than I am. I do think the fear of dilution is holding the PPS down. I’m conflicted about whether to buy more right here. |
|
|
|
Post by mytakeonit on Dec 10, 2019 0:56:44 GMT -5
sports - with Sanofi giving up. I would ... and am ... loading up shares. If you don't believe in what I say ... I'm sure you will believe what Nate says. But, he does say that same things that I say. Ha! I'm still waiting for more $$$, but unless the pps really takes off, I'll be getting more soon. Heck, I have enough shares ... but, it's really hard for a former day trader to pass up a bargain. Good luck to you !
But, that's mytakeonit
|
|
|
|
Post by wsulylecoug on Dec 10, 2019 1:22:39 GMT -5
With b, d, e, and g on the list, maybe h is RLS? Meeting the standard of an "expectation" for 2020 seems like a high bar for those items, but sure would be nice if they all hit!
|
|
|
|
Post by helmut8056 on Dec 18, 2019 9:25:39 GMT -5
With events and any news in short supply, They could at least put out a list of who's who that will be at all the Xmas parties.
|
|
|
|
Post by goyocafe on Dec 18, 2019 9:58:10 GMT -5
With events and any news in short supply, They could at least put out a list of who's who that will be at all the Xmas parties. Are they having another "Winner's Circle" extravaganza for their top sales reps and execs this year? I haven't heard any mention of it. As long as no one posts any photos, we may never know. |
|
And my tentupling my share holdings.
