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Post by mannmade on Sept 16, 2014 0:42:01 GMT -5
Found this on Yahoo! Interessting comparison if true... Click on link and compare the deals also look at Sny purchase of Regn stk. kcphaeton $MNKD On a message board a smart poster has figured out the$sny plan. I agree just believe long term.think$REGN y.ahoo.it/jgf0IVtt |
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Post by bobw on Sept 16, 2014 8:34:06 GMT -5
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Post by kc on Sept 16, 2014 11:26:30 GMT -5
I agree with that posting  Attachment DeletedWe just have to be hopeful that we are on the same path. Today the share price is very ugly as there is not much news until sales begin and that will only be in the USA for the first 6 months to one year. But as each country is added to the mix then the revenue should start to climb. Its very frustrating to watch the daily gyrations of the Hedges who are destroying our moral spirits. So a posting like the picture above does give one some hope. Need to start avg down some of my shares. Lets all be as positive as we can be as there is no reason to jump off the bridge yet. Found this on Yahoo! Interessting comparison if true... Click on link and compare the deals also look at Sny purchase of Regn stk. kcphaeton $MNKD On a message board a smart poster has figured out the$sny plan. I agree just believe long term.think$REGN y.ahoo.it/jgf0IVtt |
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Post by mannmade on Sept 16, 2014 11:30:14 GMT -5
bobw thanks for the verification as was not sure of the veracity of the comparison... However does not seem to far off and confirms what I had been told that the mnkd deal was similar and possibly one of the better deals when compared with pharma deals struck in last 12 to 24 months... Most importantly to me... is the purchase of regn stock by SNY as any same strategy with mnkd would I think trigger the momentum we need to get the price up... |
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Post by kc on Sept 16, 2014 12:12:31 GMT -5
Just watching block trading of shares over 10,000 units since August 11th you have to wonder if somebody like Sanofi is accumulating shares. I know that the institutional folks are buying as you can see that on Morningstar that their most recent date includes 8/31/2014 which shows an increase in purchase by Tutes. So if SNY has been buying shares that would be a huge bump of confidence when they finally have to disclosue that publically. In January 2014 Sanofi partnered and purchased 12% of a company named Alnylam Pharmaceuticals it was announced in the press release that day. But that doesn't mean that it has not happend with MNKD as it did with REGN or this company. on 2/27/14 Sanofi owned over 13% of ALNY. Sanofi owning shares of their partners seems to be a very common situation. Perhaps its so they get a seat at the board room table for dicussing alignment with each other on policy and accountability. Press release and Morningstar screen shot.   |
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Post by cybergym66 on Sept 16, 2014 12:35:35 GMT -5
So I hope someone can explain something to me...many on this board think SNY is accumulating stock as a "cheap" way to own MNKD before they do a BO in the future (could be next year, could be years), while "Big Funds" are also accumulating. So why is the stock going down? FTC (Failure to Cover) on naked shorting? I need someone to reconcile for me this "the deep pockets are buying" while I keep seeing the stock getting systematically push down.
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Post by kc on Sept 16, 2014 13:03:31 GMT -5
Somebody is buying shares.
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Post by kc on Sept 25, 2014 22:05:33 GMT -5
Now that we have HSR approval.
Something to think about regarding Sanofi's long term intention regarding MannKind.
Here is the perfect example of where we might be heading with Sanofi. This deal occurred in January 2014.
Sanofi to Buy 12% of Alnylam, Expands Rare-Disease Drug Deal
The $700 million deal strengthens the development partnership of the two, while reinforcing Sanofi's commitment to rare disease
French drugmaker Sanofi will buy a 12 percent stake in Alnylam Pharmaceuticals Inc for $700 million and deepen their partnership to develop drugs for rare genetic diseases.
The companies said in a joint statement on Monday that Sanofi would buy Alnylam shares for about $80 each, representing a 27 percent premium compared to their average price over the past 30 days.
The partnership between Sanofi and Alnylam began in 2012, the year after Sanofi jumped into the business of treating rare genetic diseases by paying more than $20 billion for U.S. biotechnology company Genzyme, a leader in the field.
Share price January 3rd 2012. $8.33 per share
September 2012 partnership announced with Sanofi. $20.74
January 10, 2014 share price close of market $66.21 per share.
Announcement of a purchase of 12% interest in Alnylam by Sanofi prior to market open on January 13, 2014 market share price at open $85.36 per share and at market close 1/13/2014 $93.28 per share.
So today's MannKind share price at $6.10 per share could be just like Alnylam's. It took about 16 months after partnership for Sanofi to buy 12% of Alnylam. That now stands today at 13%.
Will Sanofi do the same with MannKind? A blockbuster type drug they can sell for many years in the USA and later in a 120 countries. I think we will have a winner if we just sit back for 12 to 18 months. I don't think it will take Sanofi 18 months to buy a 10% or more interest in MannKind. I predict this will happen before the end of 2014 now that the HSR approval is behind us.
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Post by cybergym66 on Sept 26, 2014 5:48:06 GMT -5
Now that we have HSR approval. Something to think about regarding Sanofi's long term intention regarding MannKind. Here is the perfect example of where we might be heading with Sanofi. This deal occurred in January 2014. Sanofi to Buy 12% of Alnylam, Expands Rare-Disease Drug Deal The $700 million deal strengthens the development partnership of the two, while reinforcing Sanofi's commitment to rare disease French drugmaker Sanofi will buy a 12 percent stake in Alnylam Pharmaceuticals Inc for $700 million and deepen their partnership to develop drugs for rare genetic diseases. The companies said in a joint statement on Monday that Sanofi would buy Alnylam shares for about $80 each, representing a 27 percent premium compared to their average price over the past 30 days. The partnership between Sanofi and Alnylam began in 2012, the year after Sanofi jumped into the business of treating rare genetic diseases by paying more than $20 billion for U.S. biotechnology company Genzyme, a leader in the field. Share price January 3rd 2012. $8.33 per share September 2012 partnership announced with Sanofi. $20.74 January 10, 2014 share price close of market $66.21 per share. Announcement of a purchase of 12% interest in Alnylam by Sanofi prior to market open on January 13, 2014 market share price at open $85.36 per share and at market close 1/13/2014 $93.28 per share. So today's MannKind share price at $6.10 per share could be just like Alnylam's. It took about 16 months after partnership for Sanofi to buy 12% of Alnylam. That now stands today at 13%. Will Sanofi do the same with MannKind? A blockbuster type drug they can sell for many years in the USA and later in a 120 countries. I think we will have a winner if we just sit back for 12 to 18 months. I don't think it will take Sanofi 18 months to buy a 10% or more interest in MannKind. I predict this will happen before the end of 2014 now that the HSR approval is behind us. SNY buying MNKD at these depressed prices does make a lot of sense plus it would also tell the market that they know what the potential for Afrezza even before sales start. Buying know also allows them to recoup their costs of partnering with MNKD given that we all expect MNKD to be much higher a year from now. I would like to see more than a 5% investment since I think that would affirm SNY's belief in the long term success in Afrezza. |
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Post by mnholdem on Sept 26, 2014 7:18:05 GMT -5
SEC requires filing within 10 days of accumulating 5% interest or more. If my math is correct, that is 20+ million shares of the 405M shares outstanding. Sanofi could be accumulating via various funds and subsidiaries, and open market buys would prevent dilution. If an eventual buyout of Afrezza is planned down the road, a stock swap deal would cost Sanofi less if they own a big chunk of the shares and lower their net cost for an acquisition of all rights (production & sales) to Afrezza.
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Post by cybergym66 on Sept 26, 2014 8:00:25 GMT -5
SEC requires filing within 10 days of accumulating 5% interest or more. If my math is correct, that is 20+ million shares of the 405M shares outstanding. Sanofi could be accumulating via various funds and subsidiaries, and open market buys would prevent dilution. If an eventual buyout of Afrezza is planned down the road, a stock swap deal would cost Sanofi less if they own a big chunk of the shares and lower their net cost for an acquisition of all rights (production & sales) to Afrezza. I don't think SNY started accumulating MNKD yet. To be on the safe side they probably waited until the partnership passed HSR plus the MNKD volume has been rather weak lately. Now if they bought rather slowly they could keep this under the radar. Add in them possibly being stealthy about accumulating shares and I'm not sure there's a way to tell until the announcement comes... |
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Post by kc on Sept 26, 2014 9:33:26 GMT -5
More comparison with the Alnylam deal:
The deal between Sanofi and Alnylam took place on October 1, 2012. Sanofi paid 22.5 Million upfront payment for a limited market drug. Think about this in comparison to the 150 Million for Afrezza and the Royalties that MannKind will receive. 16 Months later they buy 13% of ALNY.
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Monday, October 1, 2012 2:10 pm EDT
ALNY share price on October 1,2012 was $18.85 per share at the close.
Jan 10, 2014 at close of Market $66.21 (343,000 shares traded)
Jan 13, 2014 at close of Market $93.28 (5,343,700 shares traded)
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Alnylam and Genzyme Form Alliance to Develop and Commercialize RNAi Therapeutics in Asia
Genzyme to Advance ALN-TTR02 and ALN-TTRsc Programs as Breakthrough Therapies for Patients with ATTR in Japan and in the Broader Asian Market
news.genzyme.com/press-release/alnylam-and-genzyme-form-alliance-develop-and-commercialize-rnai-therapeutics-asia
Alnylam to Receive $22.5 Million in Upfront Payment in Addition to Milestone Payments and Royalties on Product Sales; Alnylam Maintains All Rights in U.S., Europe, and Rest of World
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So look at the share price of ALNY from Jan 2012 to the date of the partnership with Genzyme/Sanofi in October 2012 and then the share appreciation from that date forward to the Announcement 16 Months later that Sanofi was buying a 12% interest in that company. They actually bought 13%.
Compare the value of the market for The Alnylam product which has a very limited market base (but a high cost drug) To MannKind Afrezza that has a HUGE UNLIMITED MARKET as there are Tens of millions who are diabetic or pre-diabetic in America and then add the world population which puts the market at Hundreds of Millions of potential users for the our product.
Will Sanofi treat MannKind in the same manner? I bet the deal will be very similar. You can find out more about the deal with ALNY and Genzyme by searching for the information.
All of us longs can wait very patiently for 12 to 18 months for the positive opportunities ahead. The shorts will be torched in the LONG run.
Will the Squeeze happened in 2014? I don't know and don't really care. But history is on our side and when you factor in Sanofi's global reach at 120 countries that have the potential to distribute Afrezza we will have a BLOCKBUSTER drug for sale.
ALNY got 22.5 Million at the time of partnership and MNKD got 150 Million. Sanofi knows what they are doing as does the Board of directors of MannKind
The best is yet to come.
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