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Post by mnholdem on Dec 31, 2014 14:46:34 GMT -5
I'm thinking that part of the reason for deferring the upfront payment is for that exact purpose: continually increasing EPS quarter after quarter. I hope I'm right. Most investors look to earnings growth in making a decision to invest in a company's future.
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Post by noonen on Jan 1, 2015 8:48:16 GMT -5
I really do think shorts mess with this thing all year. Lots of very good lists on this board of exactly what shorts will say. my reasons why mnkd blows as in investment this year this year are below.
1) zero value given for Technosphere (at least in terms of stock price) for a couple years. Need to see how Afrezza does, and then how all the testing goes with whatever new drugs they try to test out. Maybe the migraine stuff will have some Phase I and II results come out or something and we'll get stock pops like some of these other companies. Not holding my breath. A bunch of hit pieces will come out after any technosphere announcements saying it's not enough.
2) The convertible bond. It would be great for the sales ramp to look good enough so some cash could be used to just make this thing go away. Won't happen though. We'll see what kind of refinancing they can come up with. Pfeffer alluded to it in one of the recent conferences. The convert doesn't account for that many short shares, but just having it in existence (and a broker/dealer with borrowed stock at a rate of 0% facilitating shorts) leads to another little playground for shorting.
3) Sanofi's lantus ramp. The drug didn't take off immediately. lessened risk as has been mentioned a lot here bc of lantus coming off patent.
4) Agree that sequential sales comps will matter here at the beginning, but think the big hitter will be Q2'16. That will be numbers for 4 full quarters. That report is 20 months away. more time for short fun.
5) Everything with this stock just takes a damn long time.
6) Everything that I'm getting all excited about (getting on formularies, alleged reps getting excited for the launch, etc) doesn't mean this thing will sell. every drug that goes to market has to go through these hoops. only a very very few are blockbusters.
7) conspiracy-world: Sanofi, nor any other big pharma, has any incentive for mnkd stock price to go up. Especially if they are going to be buying these guys out long term. They may not be behind active shorting, but they are definitely not doing anything to support the price of the equity of mnkd. why would they?
8) My uninformed assumptions regarding how excited MDs will be to prescribe this need to be cut by 50%. Not everyone is going to jump right at this. Doctors are generally (ha!) well-educated and want to see how it goes with others before trying a new drug. (Given the comments by our resident MDs here, I had a hard time writing this one, bc it's the 2nd most laughable one here).
9) Afrezza is just a lesser-performing, repackaged Exhubera. Sorry, couldn't resist.
And that still doesn't make me want to sell.
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