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Post by jpg on Dec 21, 2014 13:50:05 GMT -5
jpg, OK, now I see what you are asking. I clicked on the link for this plan, and they do not seem to specify how the prandial insulin is to be supplied; just which brands are preferred and non-preferred. Yes prandial is a big category. If comparing out of vial insulins with Afrezza this could be a big step in costs but if comparing to pens then the picture should be very different. We are still to early for this granularity but this type of issue could end up working well for Afrezza if leveraged well by Sanofi. JPG
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Post by mannmade on Dec 21, 2014 16:55:17 GMT -5
This may actually help with the "controlled launch" for a bit to ensure supply can keep up with demand. Am personally not worried as the science behind Afrezza will win ut over first 12 to 24 months on the market.
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Post by biotec on Dec 21, 2014 19:25:43 GMT -5
This may actually help with the "controlled launch" for a bit to ensure supply can keep up with demand. Am personally not worried as the science behind Afrezza will win ut over first 12 to 24 months on the market. I dont like the controlled launch at all! Its not about supply, Its about demand. Also after 2 querters of sales will tell the fate of Afrezza! If the Aug call has bad numbers, MNKD is going to drop big time!
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Post by jpg on Dec 21, 2014 21:34:23 GMT -5
This may actually help with the "controlled launch" for a bit to ensure supply can keep up with demand. Am personally not worried as the science behind Afrezza will win ut over first 12 to 24 months on the market. I dont like the controlled launch at all! Its not about supply, Its about demand. Also after 2 querters of sales will tell the fate of Afrezza! If the Aug call has bad numbers, MNKD is going to drop big time! It is about demand and supply. If Sanofi does a big push and their is a lot of demand but no supply then that is a big problem. Afrezza is more complicated (and obviously very novel) then any small molecule so supply line set up, validation and accreditation is more complicated. As a side note the August call will have only one full quarter of sales. Like it or not Afrezza has much more similarity to the complexities of biological then to small molecules drugs. You may not like it but will have to live with it (or not if you sell...). JPG
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Post by mnholdem on Dec 23, 2014 13:55:15 GMT -5
I find myself wondering if we fully understand what "controlled launch" really means. Is Sanofi's interpretation simply that they are planning to maintain tight control of every aspect of the launch of Afrezza?
A lot of details go into a successful product launch and everything must INTEGRATE seamlessly:
www.upsizemag.com/business-builder/product-launches
Large corporations use these principles to launch major new products:
Discovery: It all begins with discovery. Differentiating your product or service and defining your target audience is key.
Definition: The definition process is when you determine the product’s true brand. Think of this as the sum of perceptions a significant audience has about your company, products or services. A brand is the promise an entity makes to its constituents. Much of the heavy lifting happens during the definition stage when you must determine which marketing strategies will be most effective. Tactics and messaging should be tailored for each key audience.
Design: It should reinforce the visual, verbal and functional images for maximum impact. A well-designed marketing campaign equips your sales force with the tools they need to achieve your ultimate goals — selling products, generating revenue and building market share.
Develop: Think of it as “D” day. This is when the planning and hard work culminates in a coordinated and controlled product launch. you look at every aspect of the product launch as part of a holistic system, with each component reinforcing every other component. Direct mail, advertising, website and engaging & training of sales force. Reps must understand what’s new and different about this product... make sure they’re excited about it before launch day.
Deliver: it really means “follow through.” Track results and build your database. Gather information and analyze it. Smart managers analyze the data and adjust their campaigns in response to issues that arise in the marketplace.
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We hear it over and over again: Sanofi is one of the absolute best at new product launches. Perhaps their reputation has been built by always keeping tight control of every step before and after launch and I cannot help but wonder if we are over-analyzing "controlled".
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Post by mannmade on Dec 23, 2014 14:10:12 GMT -5
I was just making a "light hearted" comment about the perceived issues of being Tier III or even iV on the recent health plan announcements such as the Northwest Blue. However I think there is some truth to what I said as it will be very important for demand not to outstrip supply as this is not an iPhone where I can live with my old phone until there are enough new ones. We do not want a bunch of frustrated diabetics nor doctors writing prescriptions for Afrezza only to find they cannot get a constant supply once adopted to it. This would be a very bad press issue and also likely effect the willingness of doctors and patients to switch over. It is not a terminal issue but would set pps back for a bit and I for one have had enough of that so would rather see a nice calucalted roll out/launch.
As an aside I have said before the pps is not likely to be based on the actual sales numbers (as i expect them to be on the low side of estimates I have seen due to supply/production capacity, need for doctor/patient education, and Sanofi's stated plan for a controlled launch) so much as the percentage of Q x Q growth that will then used to factor in forward earnings or not...
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Post by BlueCat on Dec 23, 2014 17:13:12 GMT -5
Have run some large corporate launches (albeit not in BP). And when we talk about 'controlled launches', usually it is for new or limited supply situations:
- Reduced marketing and PR (control demand) - Release it through select channels (control access) - Dedicate a strong sales/support system for high touch with customers/distribution for customer/service satisfaction (control perception) - Introduce 'control factors' for ordering so that demand does not outstrip supply (control distribution) - Measure tightly (control results and planning)
And last - have an exit plan, and have a plan for success. A solid launch (even a controlled one) builds momentum. The worst you can do is not capitalize on it.
No doubt they have already modeled this extensively, and will be watching the numbers to see if it matches their projections.
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Post by BlueCat on Dec 23, 2014 17:22:14 GMT -5
- - - - - - - - - - - - -
We hear it over and over again: Sanofi is one of the absolute best at new product launches. Perhaps their reputation has been built by always keeping tight control of every step before and after launch and I cannot help but wonder if we are over-analyzing "controlled".
I think it depends on whether they used "control" in generic terms, or if in the way it is typically used around launches. My guess is actually the later, especially because of the fact that it is not just new to market, but a new type of medication, with an initial limit in supply. This would all qualify for a truly 'controlled' launch. In this case, I don't think we're over-analyzing. My question is really, how confident are they on demand - are they already preparing for fast ramp, or are they awaiting initial results. IMHO, that will likely influence whether we see a return on the stock sooner, or much later. My bet is on fast ramp and sooner, because I think SNY needs it to succeed, and has bet on its success based on their research. And they have the resources to move this fast.
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Post by kc on Dec 23, 2014 17:53:12 GMT -5
Have run some large corporate launches (albeit not in BP). And when we talk about 'controlled launches', usually it is for new or limited supply situations: - Reduced marketing and PR (control demand) - Release it through select channels (control access) - Dedicate a strong sales/support system for high touch with customers/distribution for customer/service satisfaction (control perception) - Introduce 'control factors' for ordering so that demand does not outstrip supply (control distribution) - Measure tightly (control results and planning) And last - have an exit plan, and have a plan for success. A solid launch (even a controlled one) builds momentum. The worst you can do is not capitalize on it. No doubt they have already modeled this extensively, and will be watching the numbers to see if it matches their projections.
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Post by biotec on Dec 23, 2014 17:54:16 GMT -5
I was just making a "light hearted" comment about the perceived issues of being Tier III or even iV on the recent health plan announcements such as the Northwest Blue. However I think there is some truth to what I said as it will be very important for demand not to outstrip supply as this is not an iPhone where I can live with my old phone until there are enough new ones. We do not want a bunch of frustrated diabetics nor doctors writing prescriptions for Afrezza only to find they cannot get a constant supply once adopted to it. This would be a very bad press issue and also likely effect the willingness of doctors and patients to switch over. It is not a terminal issue but would set pps back for a bit and I for one have had enough of that so would rather see a nice calucalted roll out/launch. As an aside I have said before the pps is not likely to be based on the actual sales numbers (as i expect them to be on the low side of estimates I have seen due to supply/production capacity, need for doctor/patient education, and Sanofi's stated plan for a controlled launch) so much as the percentage of Q x Q growth that will then used to factor in forward earnings or not....
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Post by kc on Dec 23, 2014 18:01:54 GMT -5
You can bet that Sanofi knows how to do a successful launch of Afrezza. All they have to do is read this attach Dartmouth thesis on How Pfizer Blew it in their Entrepreneurship & Strategy as published in 2010. faculty.tuck.dartmouth.edu/images/uploads/faculty/ron-adner/EIS__FinalProject__Exubera_110810.pdfI know that we are all nervous about the launch and how the acceptance will be in the marketplace but we have traveled this far you can only bet that MannKind Management and Sanofi has double checked everything many times over to make sure the sucessfully launch Afrezza. Have run some large corporate launches (albeit not in BP). And when we talk about 'controlled launches', usually it is for new or limited supply situations: - Reduced marketing and PR (control demand) - Release it through select channels (control access) - Dedicate a strong sales/support system for high touch with customers/distribution for customer/service satisfaction (control perception) - Introduce 'control factors' for ordering so that demand does not outstrip supply (control distribution) - Measure tightly (control results and planning) And last - have an exit plan, and have a plan for success. A solid launch (even a controlled one) builds momentum. The worst you can do is not capitalize on it. No doubt they have already modeled this extensively, and will be watching the numbers to see if it matches their projections.
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Post by biotec on Dec 23, 2014 18:36:59 GMT -5
To me controlled launch= not sure if it will sell!!
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Post by babaoriley on Dec 23, 2014 18:47:39 GMT -5
Mr. Holdem:
The concept of "controlled launch is right in the material from which you quote in your post:
"Large corporations use these principles to launch major new products: ........ Develop: Think of it as “D” day. This is when the planning and hard work culminates in a coordinated and controlled product launch. you look at every aspect of the product launch as part of a holistic system, with each component reinforcing every other component. Direct mail, advertising, website and engaging & training of sales force. Reps must understand what’s new and different about this product... make sure they’re excited about it before launch day."
So to me, this "controlled launch" concept is nothing out or the ordinary, more like how it's done by large companies when they launch a new product. Sanofi is one of those large companies, and they've done this numerous times, so they should have a great handle on it. It would be really stupid if they ran out of merchandise, the only silver linings there would be that (i) it might create a scarcity that will make people say "I've got to have it" (plenty of examples of that over the years, especially with kids' toys) and (ii) you can't just go to another source for the same product. But it would surely cause more harm than good, so that's one of the parts that needs to be "controlled."
I think MNKD is consider having a Dreamboat giveaway night at Dodger Stadium next season, they will make a limited amount of Dreamboats with sports themes, that one will be shaped like a bat.
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Post by babaoriley on Dec 23, 2014 18:49:49 GMT -5
To me controlled launch= not sure if it will sell!! Biotec, that's absolutely wrong, see my post after yours, it's a common term, for goodness sakes! Geez, you're more "pissimistic" than I - and that's saying something!
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Post by biotec on Dec 23, 2014 19:30:45 GMT -5
To me controlled launch= not sure if it will sell!! Biotec, that's absolutely wrong, see my post after yours, it's a common term, for goodness sakes! Geez, you're more "pissimistic" than I - and that's saying something! Bab, After this year IDK what I am. I used to be a little pissimistic, It turned into WTF is up with the PPS! And a little more pissimistic!The market cap makes me want to puke, so does the PPS.The managment has just been outstanding! Could not ask for a better team!
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