|
Post by kc on Apr 10, 2015 15:24:03 GMT -5
glad you're a religious guy. Holy holy holy! [ quote author=" joeypotsandpans" source="/post/22408/thread" timestamp="1428696719"] 3/31/2015 95,717,587 3,373,112 28.376641 Holy... Like I said, parallels Greece [/quote]
|
|
|
Post by harryx1 on Apr 10, 2015 15:32:35 GMT -5
|
|
|
Post by kdaddyfresh2000 on Apr 10, 2015 15:46:26 GMT -5
I am a long MNKD investor and new poster here. Re: the short numbers, one nagging concern is that the Failure to Deliver shares relieve the pressure of a short squeeze and those Naked Shorting seem to be operating with ridiculous impunity. Can someone with real-world experience/knowledge in this area chime in? Thanks in advance!
|
|
|
Post by harryx1 on Apr 10, 2015 16:06:01 GMT -5
I am a long MNKD investor and new poster here. Re: the short numbers, one nagging concern is that the Failure to Deliver shares relieve the pressure of a short squeeze and those Naked Shorting seem to be operating with ridiculous impunity. Can someone with real-world experience/knowledge in this area chime in? Thanks in advance! In simplistic terms, and someone with better knowledge than me, might be able to explain it in more detail but MMs (market makers) are exempt from the rules of naked shorting and hence it's very difficult to prove that they are intentionally doing FTDs. However, I would think that it has to eventually catch up to them at some point but not sure how.
|
|
Deleted
Deleted Member
Posts: 0
|
Post by Deleted on Apr 11, 2015 6:24:16 GMT -5
Harry,
If the MM are exempt from the rules of naked shorting then this means they can naked short as much as they want, Yes?
If this is true, what is the maximum # of shares they can naked short - is it up to the total # shares of MNKD issued and outstanding or is it a % of this or could the # of naked shorted shares actually exceed total shares issued, outstanding.
Any information is appreciated.
|
|
|
Post by harryx1 on Apr 11, 2015 12:01:36 GMT -5
|
|
|
Post by thekindaguyiyam on Apr 11, 2015 12:53:55 GMT -5
Harry, If the MM are exempt from the rules of naked shorting then this means they can naked short as much as they want, Yes? If this is true, what is the maximum # of shares they can naked short - is it up to the total # shares of MNKD issued and outstanding or is it a % of this or could the # of naked shorted shares actually exceed total shares issued, outstanding. Any information is appreciated. The brokerage firms must feel exempt too, or at least not threatened when participating in lending them out @ 18%.
|
|
|
Post by joeypotsandpans on Apr 11, 2015 14:23:49 GMT -5
Harry, If the MM are exempt from the rules of naked shorting then this means they can naked short as much as they want, Yes? If this is true, what is the maximum # of shares they can naked short - is it up to the total # shares of MNKD issued and outstanding or is it a % of this or could the # of naked shorted shares actually exceed total shares issued, outstanding. Any information is appreciated. The brokerage firms must feel exempt too, or at least not threatened when participating in lending them out @ 18%. Just pointing out that the brokerage firms are not participating/lending rather acting as just that a broker between the the owners of the shares doing the lending and the other side that is doing the borrowing. Thus, taking it from Fidelity's standpoint for the sake of this discussion (think I got Fidelity's color pretty close lol) they are returning currently 20% to the owners of the stock, and the borrowers are paying roughly low to mid 30's and that's being conservative based on my sources) Let's talk about that for a second, the rate to borrow is a function of two things imo, availability and risk. The less supply the higher the cost to borrow, otherwise known as tightening...the higher the risk, the higher the cost to mitigate the risk of non payment. The intermediaries are obviously very much aware of the SI, and with it (SI) continuing to increase into orbit are taking advantage of the spread between the borrowers and the lenders. This is one war of attrition, and to be honest with the core of the "cult" having the patience of Job the likes of which I have never seen, this one will no doubt go down as historic imo. At one point, I believe each side had the courage of their convictions, now it almost seems like the shorts egos are costing them dearly. Of course, they would contend the opposite as they would like to think that the price decline is costing the longs. I would contend that it is only costing the longs that are trying to time short term leveraged gains through options otherwise the price decline is "consistently on increased borrowed time" whereby those that can take advantage of the "dividends" are being paid for the wait. The resilience of the longs in this equity IS taking a toll (increased SI along with high cost to carry) imo as the stare down continues to see who blinks first. There is most likely some offsetting of the costs through hedges via options but as those longs who continue to get burned betting on the short term options give up, effectively the cost of those hedges will increase proportionately, again imo.
|
|
|
Post by ashiwi on Apr 11, 2015 15:09:03 GMT -5
Borrowers are paying Fidelity 28.25%. As fast as you can acquire settled shares in your account, Fidelity lends them out. 20% interest makes the wait much more tolerable. The cash allows me to sell more puts and/or buy more shares. I believe at some point later this year (possibly a lot sooner) the stock price will ultimately take off. Too many possible positive binary events over the rest of this year. The short interest has to be getting very top heavy, I never thought I would see it this high, and I don't expect it to go much higher. But one just never knows.
|
|
Deleted
Deleted Member
Posts: 0
|
Post by Deleted on Apr 11, 2015 15:10:21 GMT -5
Thanks Harry, appreciated.
|
|
|
Post by corduroy on Apr 11, 2015 18:11:43 GMT -5
Surely the extremely high and increasing short interest has been seen before by one of the experts on this board before. What's the end game going to be like? This can't go on forever. Shares are in such short supply that shorts are paying big interest to continue what ever they are doing. Are they continuing to short just to keep the PPS from getting away from them? Anybody?
|
|
|
Post by jpg on Apr 11, 2015 21:27:25 GMT -5
It's a battle... I also would like a good explanation but while we wait for one I will give you mine (and hope Joey and others will correct as needed).
It's kind of a standoff between big shorts and big longs betting on an outcome. Neither can exit right now until there is a big price movement up or down. Imagine a group with 5% wanting to exit? How would they unload their shares without cratering the price? They can't exit right now. Same goes with the big shorters. To exit large short positions they would need to buy back huge amounts of shares that don't exist. Both sides have painted themselves in a corner and we retail investors are there as concerned bystanders with the only shares that are truly available without major price movements.
From what I understand the bear raids have stopped because they are being met with price support at or near 5. The increasing short float is being bought up at 5. There is no reason to try to crater the price if you know the shares you are dumping will simply be picked up (and you will have to pay 30% for the privilege of dumping). Volume has gone down and we are now in a very temporary detent...
If the big players have deep pockets (which they have) and conviction (which we hope they have) and are willing to wait a year or 2 (while picking up near 30% fees on their lent shares) this could go on for a while. Who controls the game right now? I would guess the long with a lot of share who can't exit but has conviction. When the 5% threshold was broken I was excited. That was a message. Could there be others?
So what do the real experts think of my armchair expert opinion on something I probably have no clue about?
|
|
|
Post by kc on Apr 11, 2015 23:33:06 GMT -5
I think you nailed it correctly.
"From what I understand the bear raids have stopped because they are being met with price support at or near 5. The increasing short float is being bought up at 5. There is no reason to try to crater the price if you know the shares you are dumping will simply be picked up (and you will have to pay 30% for the privilege of dumping)."
|
|
|
Post by cjc04 on Apr 12, 2015 18:17:38 GMT -5
Great conversation this weekend!!!!!!!
I thought I'd add $.02 after reading joeys post, and it comes from my personal actions (which I consider being an educated reet, but still just a reet) over the past 6 months or so....... To your point Joey, I have lost about $5k in expired options due to my conviction that we would surely be higher by now, and I must say, they weren't "Hail Mary" options. I used timing of events, fundamentals, and chart technicals in choosing the options I bought. HOWEVER, to your other point Joey, I have also DOUBLED my share holdings, 25k as of now, over the same period as the price continues to drop. I have one more planned buy, 5k shares, at 4.55 if we test the 4.45 low of Oct 13, AND then I will sell everything to buy MORE if we test the adcom eve low of 3.80......... Just the thoughts, and actions, of a patient convicted reet.
I do have a few thoughts on the massive si and the timing of its unwind that I'd like to hear thoughts on..... We all know about the 9 mil shares to BoA, and the Oct time frame for it to be settled. Does that play a big role? Will it take until Oct for that mystery to be resolved? What will sales be like by then?...... Interesting times between now and then..... However, I do think lately that I'm more interested in the 2 sets of warrants, and the (I think) around 70 mil shares attached to them, that mature/expire in Feb 2016....... I'm Interested in any thoughts on their impact of the massive si, how that situation unwinds, and is Feb therefor a meaningful time frame for our sp... If so, factoring in what sales may or may not be between now and Feb,,,, well that just hurts my brain.
Thx in advance, go MNKD.
|
|
|
Post by ezrasfund on Apr 12, 2015 22:34:34 GMT -5
I guess a reet is a retail investor. I think you and jpg are right to remind the board that all of us retail investors don't amount to a hill of beans in this multi-billion dollar fight. We are more like spectators betting on the action.
There is another thread that discusses the warrants. Many have already been exercised. 40% of the original issue should be controlled by Al.
There is also a discussion of the B of A collateral shares. Matt seemed to say that they will be put back on the shelf and are somehow restricted shares. And 9 million seems like a smaller number every time the short interest increases.
And maybe it is time to pull out that old chestnut, "The market can stay irrational longer than you can stay solvent."
|
|