|
Post by afrizzle on Mar 3, 2015 13:40:19 GMT -5
The only thing that changed in the fundamentals that I saw was that MannKind's new & improved technosphere production process is ready and that Danbury has the ability to hold 12 filling lines not 3, (new info to me anyway).
I've got a full position but if these fearmongers push it down far enough I'll start adding again.
We're all going to look back and laugh one day.
|
|
|
Post by shortslaver on Mar 3, 2015 14:03:50 GMT -5
It's 1 guys opinion and I can understand being nervous with the slow update in new prescriptions. However, the prescription data is in fact decent for where we are and the company has said doctors want more samples to pass out.
It has a short term effect on the stock price. Maybe this weeks prescription numbers will be well ahead of where we think they might be and that turns the stock price around. Everyone has a different goal with their investment and/or trade so play accordingly. But if you believe in the drug and the company, then this is just another small bump in the road.
As for the potential for profits being nullified? I just don't see where he gets that from.
|
|
|
Post by babaoriley on Mar 3, 2015 14:08:20 GMT -5
It appears to me that MNKD has done pretty darn well considering the kitchen sink thrown at us in the last 18 hours. There will be more, I don't doubt that, but today was a pretty heavy shelling, let by GS. I think the short interest ending 2/28 is going to show an increase (86 to 92 million?), as those in the know shorted some more in the period covered by that report.
10% movement on a volatile stock with this amount of crap thrown at them all at once is not a big move. Now if John Deere or P&G moved 10% on a downgrade, that would be big news, but this stock, not so much. Seems like the real fireworks were all in the first couple of hours of trading, let's see if we can maintain around $6 for the remainder of the day. There may be some more sales in the next couple of days due to Mr. Margin calling. But it seems there are those out there willing to buy.
Not sure how many shorts covered or will cover today, but I'm sure they were hoping for a lower price. I think some have also bought some 2016 and 2017 calls at a discount to hedge.
|
|
|
Post by nugjuice on Mar 3, 2015 14:16:50 GMT -5
It appears to me that MNKD has done pretty darn well considering the kitchen sink thrown at us in the last 18 hours. There will be more, I don't doubt that, but today was a pretty heavy shelling, let by GS. I think the short interest ending 2/28 is going to show an increase (86 to 92 million?), as those in the know shorted some more in the period covered by that report. 10% movement on a volatile stock with this amount of crap thrown at them all at once is not a big move. Now if John Deere or P&G moved 10% on a downgrade, that would be big news, but this stock, not so much. Seems like the real fireworks were all in the first couple of hours of trading, let's see if we can maintain around $6 for the remainder of the day. There may be some more sales in the next couple of days due to Mr. Margin calling. But it seems there are those out there willing to buy. Not sure how many shorts covered or will cover today, but I'm sure they were hoping for a lower price. I think some have also bought some 2016 and 2017 calls at a discount to hedge. From a trader's perspective, $6 is an important support area. If it breaks there, wouldn't be surprised if it dropped another 10-15% like a rock. But this is all short term noise until we start seeing real numbers.
|
|
|
Post by nugjuice on Mar 3, 2015 14:29:54 GMT -5
I thought you guys might enjoy this comment on one of the articles that made me chuckle. Couldn't have said it better myself:
MARCH 3, 2015 11:07 A.M. CWAmember wrote: A soft unadvertised 3 week launch of Afrezza and Goldman reduces their 2025 sales projection by 50%? This is magic eight ball analysis.
|
|
|
Post by babaoriley on Mar 3, 2015 14:55:25 GMT -5
GS's initial Rx projection looked like it was prepared by somebody on this board (not thinking of any one person, many could have done it!). The whole set up is so transparent.
These articles going back and forth, all somewhat childish, but it is the investment world in which we have chosen to participate. Can you imagine if real estate were bought and sold like this? A listing would come out, and there would be articles about how great the property is, and then articles about the toxic materials issues, then about the great school, countered by a rising crime rate, ad nauseum. A lot of people out there that want to do your thinking for you, with obvious agendas, and MNKD is a lightning rod for so many.
Stock continues to make one proud as it is fighting back valiantly and doggedly!
|
|
|
Post by jpg on Mar 3, 2015 16:03:20 GMT -5
GS's initial Rx projection looked like it was prepared by somebody on this board (not thinking of any one person, many could have done it!). The whole set up is so transparent. These articles going back and forth, all somewhat childish, but it is the investment world in which we have chosen to participate. Can you imagine if real estate were bought and sold like this? A listing would come out, and there would be articles about how great the property is, and then articles about the toxic materials issues, then about the great school, countered by a rising crime rate, ad nauseum. A lot of people out there that want to do your thinking for you, with obvious agendas, and MNKD is a lightning rod for so many. Stock continues to make one proud as it is fighting back valiantly and doggedly! Sounds like you are describing Vancouver real estate marketing (except there is never any down side to real estate in Canada it seems...).
|
|
|
Post by spiro on Mar 3, 2015 16:18:41 GMT -5
Spiro does not have any association with G.S. and has never projected an actual number of future Rx's. Somehow Spiro has made it through the day by singing, I will survive 500 times. Give me a break, $6.16, is that the best the G.S. nonsense can do? That screwball analyst should be fired for his weak performance in driving a volatile biotech's stock price down. MNKD can go down .48 on sector weakness day.
|
|
|
Post by kball on Mar 3, 2015 17:15:11 GMT -5
Regarding the early Afrezza script numbers...I'm reminded of something i remember Bill Gates saying about technology ( i consider him one of the great thinkers of our time and i have no position in microsoft currently, but did from 1996-2008 for the record).
Not his exact quote, but something to the effect of--People tend to overestimate the pace of technological change in the next 2 years, but underestimate it in the next 10.
I'm applying this bit of wisdom to Mannkind and Afrezza. We know its available. Though not widely yet. We know that it works better than advertised.
And we know theres a lot of noise
|
|
|
Post by parrerob on Mar 3, 2015 17:15:33 GMT -5
They had a $6 PT and a neutral rating when they accumulated 177%, so dont feed me some garbage about looking at it objectively. Yeah, and there was plenty of time in 4Q while they were increasing holdings that it was below $6 a share. I don't see your point. In fact, the majority of 4Q it was below $6. It even hit a low or $4.45 which would have been 35% upside to their target. Try not to let emotions get in the way of investing
|
|
|
Post by parrerob on Mar 3, 2015 17:29:29 GMT -5
Yeah, and there was plenty of time in 4Q while they were increasing holdings that it was below $6 a share. I don't see your point. In fact, the majority of 4Q it was below $6. It even hit a low or $4.45 which would have been 35% upside to their target. Try not to let emotions get in the way of investing You are right about q4 but the "6$" call from gs was done at the end of q4 exactly when pps was much more then 6 going nord. I remember very well GS call stopped the rise
|
|
|
Post by alcc on Mar 3, 2015 19:06:46 GMT -5
I have a copy of the (imo useless) report. Anyone interested can shoot me a message. But I reserve the right to be selective in my response.
|
|
|
Post by in search of the truth on Mar 3, 2015 22:56:28 GMT -5
So, from Mannkind's perspective, why would the company not file a complaint with the SEC and get them to investigate on behalf of shareholders to see if any unethical behavior occurred, such as downgrading the stock and then entering into large stock transactions. or better yet, why would Mannkind not sue GS on behalf of their shareholders, if they felt that their shareholders had been harmed (to the tune of at least 48 cents per share for Tuesday alone)?
I really don't understand why naked shorts and hedge fund managers can engage in this type activity with impunity............... for years on end..........
I think that I will call Matt Pfeffer and ask him that question tomorrow......
|
|
|
Post by typeonedad on Mar 4, 2015 0:24:22 GMT -5
I can only imagine what today (or a future day) would have looked like if Alfred G had lone wolfed it without a partner like SNY. Bloodier and dare I day a take down. Very happy to have well versed partner.
|
|
|
Post by _neil on Mar 4, 2015 1:53:08 GMT -5
This downgrade broke my back. I am already underwater given my average purchase price but this sets me back quite a bit. I am out of this PoS as soon as I can muster the stomach for taking a reasonable loss.
|
|