Ever Bullish, Al Mann Says Afrezza is Coming in Mid-April

[liane]

PharmExecBlog 09/18/2013

blog.pharmexec.com/2013/09/18/ever-bullish-al-mann-says-afrezza-is-coming-in-mid-april/

[slushy]

Great find liane! I may be mistaken, but I don't think I've seen a pricing forecast using sales from other countries. I believe most of the stock price forecasts I've seen floating around our board use only US sales... would someone more knowledgeable be able to put together a price forecast using a roll out across US, Europe, China, and India? I'm assuming those are the big 4 sales zones (and hopefully India or China is the one looking to start sales before approval)

[liane]

I especially like this paragraph:

"Al Mann was less ambiguous, in a phone conversation with PharmExec. “I would expect it to be approved in mid-April [2014],” says Mann. “On our schedule it looks like April 14, but it could be a few days before or after.” Mann says his company will file in Europe shortly after completing the US submission. Mann says other markets are looking to the FDA and EMA as a guide on this product; however, “a number of countries are talking about approving [Afrezza] simultaneously…and one country is even talking about doing it before the US.” Which country is that? Mann wouldn’t say."

That would be one good reason to fire up the Danbury plant!

[Chris]

Dougie the poster once talked about MNKD falling in tier 2 with a 5-10 percent premium and a lot of people questioned and doubted him/her, I guess he/she was right,

"Afrezza, if approved, would command a “five to 10 percent premium” over rapid-acting injectable insulins, and would achieve a Tier 2 placement alongside injectable insulin products within six months."

[nemzter]

With BP pushing the price of insulin going up, the premium could be a little higher than today's prices with those estimates.

Thanks for making my day Liane!!

[liane]

Glad to see MNKD looking at the global market so soon.

US in 2010: 26M diabetics; 19M diagnosed, 7M undiagnosed. 79M prediabetics

global in 2010: 285M diabetics

It is estimated that the number of diabetics will DOUBLE by 2030

[slushy]

Ok, this is a very rough analysis (I know someone on here will put together something better) but if the current global is 285M, assuming a 1% market share and a price of $2k a year (I think I read somewhere that this is roughly the yearly cost for Afrezza) I get the following:

285M * .01 * 2000 = $5.7B in revenue

With shares outstanding at roughly 292M, we get:

$5.7B / 292M = $19.53

[liane]

otherottawaguy has done some nice spreadsheet projections in the past - don't know if he has a recent one where MNKD conquers the world.

OOG?

[otherottawaguy]

Here is the link to the summary sheet:

docs.google.com/spreadsheet/ccc?key=0Ao_mxzpZueoYdDl4NmZBMXpQenJTLWxPSWUwUUszNlE#gid=3

This is an editable work book, think it is here in the links.

But just in case here is a really ugly unformatted table:

Post Approval Y10 Model 1 (NA) Model 2 (NA & Euro) Model 3 (World)
Share Count...... 550,000,000.00 550,000,000.00 550,000,000.00
Total Market Size 40,000,000 75,000,000 285,000,000
Market Share..... 20% 20% 20%
MNKD Market...... 8,000,000 15,000,000 57,000,000
Partner EBITA Share 25.00% 25.00% 25.00%
Output Capacity.... 8,000,016 15,000,030 57,000,114
Dividend Rate...... 4% 4% 4%
P/E Ratio.......... 18.00 18.00 18.00
Share Price using P/E $120.31 $257.13 $969.80
PEG Ratio.......... n/a - too volitile

Dividend ................$4.81 $10.29 $38.79


Feel free to modify it on the inputs page and the results will show in the results.

Currently I am using the full populations (i.e. CAN, US, MEX = 40M), but we are starting to see that the US population that the treatment would be applicable is approx 16M of 26M estimated or about 62%. Quickly adjusting the summary numbers to 60% of what is stated is how I would quickly calculate new values based upon that info.

BobW back over at Agoracom also had a very detailed calc as well, dealing more in the caluclation of share count, good source as well.

Enjoy,

OOG