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Post by james on May 5, 2015 12:30:05 GMT -5
The buyout talk is a distraction from what should be really under discussion in this thread which is financing. What is the current burn rate, how much cash was used in building out lines 2 and 3, to what degree degree will MNKD need to tap the Sanofi loan, how stand the warrants, what is the plan for the August refinancing, etc....
These are the factors we have some access to understanding and can affect the stock price in the near term (sales notwithstanding).
TS opportunities are certainly real, though and a point of interest for the quarterly call (don't expect to hear anything substantive though).
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Post by eddiemoy on May 5, 2015 12:42:39 GMT -5
The buyout talk is a distraction from what should be really under discussion in this thread which is financing. What is the current burn rate, how much cash was used in building out lines 2 and 3, to what degree degree will MNKD need to tap the Sanofi loan, how stand the warrants, what is the plan for the August refinancing, etc.... These are the factors we have some access to understanding and can affect the stock price in the near term (sales notwithstanding). TS opportunities are certainly real, though and a point of interest for the quarterly call (don't expect to hear anything substantive though). from the CC, they did mention they are working with a few companies with regards to TS and cannot disclose who they are due to NDA. They also mention that as soon as they have something material it will be announced. I do hope they have made some progress that that they are able to disclose.
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Post by cjc04 on May 5, 2015 13:27:56 GMT -5
The buyout talk is a distraction from what should be really under discussion in this thread which is financing. What is the current burn rate, how much cash was used in building out lines 2 and 3, to what degree degree will MNKD need to tap the Sanofi loan, how stand the warrants, what is the plan for the August refinancing, etc.... These are the factors we have some access to understanding and can affect the stock price in the near term (sales notwithstanding). TS opportunities are certainly real, though and a point of interest for the quarterly call (don't expect to hear anything substantive though). I agree,,,,, imo the only real info to look forward to in this cc is changes in the balance sheet. This Q will be the first time we see $$ from SNY per the purchasing agreement, and how it's logged, any changes to how the milestone pmts are on the books, and any debt refi.... Someone once told me that Q cc's are NOT an opportunity for mgmt to talk to shareholders, but rather an obligation mgmt has to have to talk.... Every word is scrutinized and they're held accountable. They're looking to get in and get out, not the venue for new and exciting info.......... True or not, it has helped me look at cc's more objectively without unrealistic expectations. I do find the timing of the earnings release vs. the cc interesting. Why not just announce that they're doing both on the same morning?
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Post by mnholdem on May 5, 2015 13:48:56 GMT -5
Liane mentioned the morning meeting was a bit unusual, and I agree with her that we shouldn't let our imaginations run amok.
The earnings report is released the night before simply to give inquirers a chance to study it before the morning conference. As to "why in the morning?" I think that it, indeed, has to do with wanting to hold their earnings call while the European markets are open.
Does that mean something material is about to be announced that may affect SNY shareholders as well as MNKD? Speculate all you want about that, but you'll only be doing it at the risk of disappointing yourself - IMHO.
I hope Hakan proves me wrong.
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Post by itrade on May 5, 2015 15:21:31 GMT -5
Got this from kevinmic on YMB, in regards to Q results.
I went back and checked all the Quarterly Results press releases dating back to 2010 and every single one of them had the Q results press release and conference call held on the same day. The press release normally came out in the moring and the confernce call was held the same day @ 5:00 PM EST after the market closed. The only exception was for the 2Q 2013 Quarterly results that were released days before the conference call was hosted. The reason the conference call was deferred was to wait for Phase III results to be announced and discussed together with the Q results. Given Mannkind's track recored for handlign their Q results press releases and conference calls, what they are doing this week is out of the ordinary. Mannkind issuing their 1Q 2015 Results press release on Thursday and hosting their conference call the next day on Friday morning is being done for a reason.
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Post by Deleted on May 5, 2015 15:44:37 GMT -5
Got this from kevinmic on YMB, in regards to Q results. I went back and checked all the Quarterly Results press releases dating back to 2010 and every single one of them had the Q results press release and conference call held on the same day. The press release normally came out in the moring and the confernce call was held the same day @ 5:00 PM EST after the market closed. The only exception was for the 2Q 2013 Quarterly results that were released days before the conference call was hosted. The reason the conference call was deferred was to wait for Phase III results to be announced and discussed together with the Q results. Given Mannkind's track recored for handlign their Q results press releases and conference calls, what they are doing this week is out of the ordinary. Mannkind issuing their 1Q 2015 Results press release on Thursday and hosting their conference call the next day on Friday morning is being done for a reason. Not sure it's meaningful but we'll find out come friday morning. I recall a period of time (maybe it's still done?) when the talking heads followed every movement of bernanke including observations about clothing, hair, when he arrived at the meeting(s), how he walked etc in order to glean perspective on his pending comments. It doesn't seem relevant to speculate on the timing of a press release vs when they hold the CC. The night before, the morning of?! I would submit it's more than likely a simple fact that they chose a friday this go around to hold the CC and what management team wants to hang around on a friday night to hold the CC? So, if their pattern was to release the morning of and CC that late afternoon/early evening, then they are basically sticking to the same format, just releasing the press statement the night before the morning call so they can avoid hanging around the office till late on friday. Maybe ed or matt or another team member has big plans for the weekend, maybe they just want to get out of the office earlier that day......but tying it into some larger business decision involving SNY? They don't need SNY to make any announcements. In addition, a public company doesn't "wait" to announce material news (unless it literally occurred within days of the CC due to SEC disclosure requirements). Friday, sad to say, will be a non event type of day. And if anything else happens to the upside - WOOHOO! EDIT - quick review of the press releases from 2010 surrounding earnings reports does not show press releases and CC's held on the same day every time and many times the CC was held at 9 am while the press release was released prior to the CC. What I could tell from the quick review is that no CC has been held on a friday night.
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Post by Deleted on May 5, 2015 16:52:01 GMT -5
Expect cash burn to be $30 mil. Expect an inventory number (potentially large) to show up. For the record, I believe most of the costs of line 2-3 have already been booked, as has half of the 2015 obligation for insulin with amph.
With that said, they are looking to spend $30 mil this year on equipment expansion, which IMO is lines 4,5 and 6, but I don't expect them this early.
I also expect roughly $4 mil in revenue to be booked this quarter.
That's my story and I'm sticking to it.
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Post by eddiemoy on May 5, 2015 17:46:35 GMT -5
the past 4 qtr in 2014 conf calls all held at 2pm PT... which is 5pm ET. did everyone forget that the hq is in california? so this new conf call is being held at 9am ET. do you know how early it is on the west coast? 6am!
they could have released on may 7th then do their usual 2pm PT cc. why wait another day then do it at 6am PT? the timing is really weird, definitely not normal.
also earnings a little early this time, within a few days after sny resolution 18 passed yesterday for the 130m shares. something is up and it isn't to stock today unfortunately. lol
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Post by compound26 on May 5, 2015 17:57:07 GMT -5
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Post by babaoriley on May 5, 2015 18:19:18 GMT -5
"But this could be our minds just trying to make sense of nothing... But who knows!!!"
Eddie, ala putting words in other people's mouths, don't put thoughts in other people's minds! I think your mind might think buy out, but not our minds. It will be a while before a buyout is even worth mentioning as a possibility. Can it happen soon, well, of course, but for now, the likelihood is so small as to be nil and not worthy of mention.
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Post by kc on May 5, 2015 19:47:56 GMT -5
I have always said buy in. Not buy out. Like the slide the other day that listed collaborations. The bottom of that slide even showed the share price at the end of 2014 for both of these companies.
I think that Sanofi also approved resolution 18 of their proposed items voted on at their meeting earlier this week.
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Post by eddiemoy on May 5, 2015 19:55:17 GMT -5
Danbury is the location of the factory. Not sure why the officers would come to the east coast two weeks prior to meeting.
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Post by kc on May 5, 2015 19:58:24 GMT -5
Danbury is the location of the factory. Are the officers in the factory? Nope but it a great time to do a show and tell to the shareholders of the new lines up and running and to introduce everyone to their new partners and fellow shareholders.
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Post by mnkdorbust on May 5, 2015 20:44:51 GMT -5
Spiro's crystal ball has been trying to tell him to buy another stock, but he never does. I sold my stake in what your crystal ball is saying to buy more MNKD while it's onsale. Short term it was not my best move but long term i feel (as well as hope) it will be.
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Post by mnholdem on May 5, 2015 23:14:49 GMT -5
I have always said buy in. Not buy out. Like the slide the other day that listed collaborations. The bottom of that slide even showed the share price at the end of 2014 for both of these companies. I think that Sanofi also approved resolution 18 of their proposed items voted on at their meeting earlier this week. R18 authorized $7.5B for acquisition of assets without voting. Also passed was Resolution 13, to authorize another 130 million shares for M&A activities, which combine with another 299 authorized shares on deposit according to the annual repott, gives Sanofi about $22B in play money. ...but I agree that an equity stake in MannKind may come before any buyout by Sanofi.
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