Post by dt on May 22, 2015 4:27:28 GMT -5
Ok, I have read some reviews of the shareholder meeting and, alongside any and all info that I seem to spend way too much time trying to gather, a picture is emerging to me of where we are at (which is overall very optimistic):
- SNY might not have Afrezza as its no1 focus, but it is not trying to undermine and is not acting devious. I am not happy with their performance to date and am not sure I would even give them a passing grade, but I think SNY is like a grade A high school student that has focused his studies on other subjects. My hope is that SNY realizes Afrezza is part of the university application and therefore also needs to be aced. It would be a bit late to start studying, but SNY is quite talented and has every chance to ace Afrezza.
- MNKD developed a great product from scratch that is now proving to be as great or even better than they thought. Now that this is sort of completed, MNKD is being asked to do other stuff like manage other aspects of Afrezza (production, participate in a JV which discussed sales and marketing,etc) and also MNKD is trying to develop other products. My view is no matter what happens with these other actions, Afrezza has been created and that's what counts.
- Stock price is a very humbling thing. I had predicted to my friends (before approval) that with approval, a marketing partner and a commercial release MNKD would be at $20-25/share. I am not proud of this, and I certainly did not think this was a certainty. But I thought that circa $10B valuation would be reflective of a relatively positive view of the situation. Now that seems quite silly.
- Rx growth. F me (sorry that is still how I feel)! I did not foresee the reality of Endos, Spiros - not multiples of Spiro, although did not see that one coming either
- insurance cos, production capability and/or lack of (or delay of) marketing push.
- Social media: A long time ago I believed/hoped that this would be important. I did not realize how important of a role it would need to be! If Sam and Eric and Brian and others did not exist, I would bet MNKD stock would be under $0 per share, with 1,000,000,000 shares shorted as opposed to only 100,000,000. I am so pleased to have these as early adopters and evangelists for the entire world (diabetics, doctors, BPs, investors, regulators, news agencies, etc) to witness! The latest quote I have seen is from www.cvs.com/drug/afrezza and is a review that concludes that using Afrezza for control is "Like driving on ice vs. driving on pavement." (for context, Afrezza is the driving on pavement reference)
- MNKD management. They (alongside Al) have gotten us here. I suspect Haaken's promotion was with a short term view of not rocking the boat. Overall I feel this must be Haaken's first CEO job and he has a lot to learn, which is on view for all to see. I would give him a year to improve dramatically or for the board to make a change. I get SOOO frustrated by him public speaking, but I think it is more important what is happening in private - on a daily basis to push the TS pipeline and also in managing the SNY relationship, and I bet that he is better at the science and pipeline stuff than he is in the corporate dealings and external communications stuff. I am happy with Matt. Not happy about all of the confusion surrounding the accounting for the JV, etc, but I believe he is a big believer and a good communicator and has a really positive vibe when allowed to display it. Plus he is a Cal Bear (go bears)!
I have been buying MNKD shares/options since 2007, have lost money on options, have 80$ of my purchases under water. I have never sold a share. I would buy more buy am out of money. I am realistic enough to understand that there are more risks than I am aware of, but I am a HUGE believer. I look at the TS (and do not forget cancer) stuff as putting a floor on the share price, but it is still so intangible that I doubt a ton of value is being priced into the stock for it. I watch the weekly scripts is (ridiculous) hope, but I think the big push will happen by the end of the year. We will turn the tide. And once we do (ignoring the short position which merits its own discussion), I go back to my $10B valuation. NOTE: I tried so hard to write this entire post without making a price prediction, but I just could not help it!
Best to all.
dt
- SNY might not have Afrezza as its no1 focus, but it is not trying to undermine and is not acting devious. I am not happy with their performance to date and am not sure I would even give them a passing grade, but I think SNY is like a grade A high school student that has focused his studies on other subjects. My hope is that SNY realizes Afrezza is part of the university application and therefore also needs to be aced. It would be a bit late to start studying, but SNY is quite talented and has every chance to ace Afrezza.
- MNKD developed a great product from scratch that is now proving to be as great or even better than they thought. Now that this is sort of completed, MNKD is being asked to do other stuff like manage other aspects of Afrezza (production, participate in a JV which discussed sales and marketing,etc) and also MNKD is trying to develop other products. My view is no matter what happens with these other actions, Afrezza has been created and that's what counts.
- Stock price is a very humbling thing. I had predicted to my friends (before approval) that with approval, a marketing partner and a commercial release MNKD would be at $20-25/share. I am not proud of this, and I certainly did not think this was a certainty. But I thought that circa $10B valuation would be reflective of a relatively positive view of the situation. Now that seems quite silly.
- Rx growth. F me (sorry that is still how I feel)! I did not foresee the reality of Endos, Spiros - not multiples of Spiro, although did not see that one coming either
- insurance cos, production capability and/or lack of (or delay of) marketing push.- Social media: A long time ago I believed/hoped that this would be important. I did not realize how important of a role it would need to be! If Sam and Eric and Brian and others did not exist, I would bet MNKD stock would be under $0 per share, with 1,000,000,000 shares shorted as opposed to only 100,000,000. I am so pleased to have these as early adopters and evangelists for the entire world (diabetics, doctors, BPs, investors, regulators, news agencies, etc) to witness! The latest quote I have seen is from www.cvs.com/drug/afrezza and is a review that concludes that using Afrezza for control is "Like driving on ice vs. driving on pavement." (for context, Afrezza is the driving on pavement reference)
- MNKD management. They (alongside Al) have gotten us here. I suspect Haaken's promotion was with a short term view of not rocking the boat. Overall I feel this must be Haaken's first CEO job and he has a lot to learn, which is on view for all to see. I would give him a year to improve dramatically or for the board to make a change. I get SOOO frustrated by him public speaking, but I think it is more important what is happening in private - on a daily basis to push the TS pipeline and also in managing the SNY relationship, and I bet that he is better at the science and pipeline stuff than he is in the corporate dealings and external communications stuff. I am happy with Matt. Not happy about all of the confusion surrounding the accounting for the JV, etc, but I believe he is a big believer and a good communicator and has a really positive vibe when allowed to display it. Plus he is a Cal Bear (go bears)!
I have been buying MNKD shares/options since 2007, have lost money on options, have 80$ of my purchases under water. I have never sold a share. I would buy more buy am out of money. I am realistic enough to understand that there are more risks than I am aware of, but I am a HUGE believer. I look at the TS (and do not forget cancer) stuff as putting a floor on the share price, but it is still so intangible that I doubt a ton of value is being priced into the stock for it. I watch the weekly scripts is (ridiculous) hope, but I think the big push will happen by the end of the year. We will turn the tide. And once we do (ignoring the short position which merits its own discussion), I go back to my $10B valuation. NOTE: I tried so hard to write this entire post without making a price prediction, but I just could not help it!
Best to all.
dt
