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Post by dreamboatcruise on Jul 29, 2015 19:25:31 GMT -5
Curious what the sentiment is regarding the deal.
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Post by centralcoastinvestor on Jul 29, 2015 19:38:22 GMT -5
I thought they would roll out the debt as they did with some of it. I also knew that because it was convertible debt, that there would be some dilution. I'm just stoked that the new shares can't be shorted and it also appears the 9 million shares will be returned from B of A.
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Post by dreamboatcruise on Jul 29, 2015 19:52:54 GMT -5
I thought they would roll out the debt as they did with some of it. I also knew that because it was convertible debt, that there would be some dilution. I'm just stoked that the new shares can't be shorted and it also appears the 9 million shares will be returned from B of A. If it were rolled out entirely, there would have been no dilution... at least now. So given your expectation that they would roll it out to future year(s), what did you vote... better, as expected or worse? |
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Post by centralcoastinvestor on Jul 29, 2015 20:05:58 GMT -5
I thought they would roll out the debt as they did with some of it. I also knew that because it was convertible debt, that there would be some dilution. I'm just stoked that the new shares can't be shorted and it also appears the 9 million shares will be returned from B of A. If it were rolled out entirely, there would have been no dilution... at least now. So given your expectation that they would roll it out to future year(s), what did you vote... better, as expected or worse? I voted: As expected. In my opinion, this event was going to be boring. However, leave it to the shorts to drop the hammer on boring news, good news, bad news, no news........ |
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Post by james on Jul 29, 2015 21:13:34 GMT -5
It did not occur as I expected. My opinion was that the entire $100M would roll over to an equivalent security, perhaps with some reduction in convertible price or additional loaned shares as a sweetener. The net effect of what happened is almost the same, but we do have a couple million shares of additional dilution, so overall very marginally worse than expected. On balance the overhang has been dealt with, which is definitely positive, and that dilution is not enough to warrant more than a passing 'meh' and move on to other things that matter much more to the future of the company.
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Post by tbone on Jul 30, 2015 9:35:34 GMT -5
Not sure how this can be anything but worse than expected now. Today there will be no conversion of 10% unless 1) the price improves dramatically from here making a 4.39 conversion attractive or 2) MannKind gave notice by 9 am ET of new floor. I am guessing we would hear about new floor but perhaps not.
To me it appears we likely converted 10% at 4.39 after yesterday's action and today are looking at no convert.
Question: on a day where no convert takes place, what about that day's 10%? MannKind obligated to pay off?
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Post by tbone on Jul 30, 2015 9:58:03 GMT -5
Now after reading details again I question whether any notes converted after yesterday. There would be no obligation to do so since VWAP yesterday was below the floor (probably around 4.58). They would have converted at 4.39 with current price basically right there at close (no discount). And they knew the risk of Sanofi earnings. Would any convert? I'm guessing not.
Bottom line, unless MannKind has provided a new floor price, then I don't see any 10% yesterday or today (barring a huge come back in price). Is this really resolution to the approx $60 million in notes?? I'm beginning to wonder. Hate to go through it all again but I also hate MannKind to keep lowering floor and listening to AF scream 'death spiral'.
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Post by dreamboatcruise on Jul 30, 2015 10:31:21 GMT -5
tbone... I was a "worse" because yes it appears that the deal was structured leaving uncertainty... exactly how much I'm still unclear on. I can't figure out is why MNKD would not have simply taken their lumps and converted at a fixed discount, whatever was needed. Was that simply not an option... or did MNKD actually think this structure beneficial? Having said that... I bought more MNKD this morning. I had planned to buy more today on a dip and the convert story doesn't change my long term view.
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Post by EveningOfTheDay on Jul 30, 2015 13:56:35 GMT -5
It did not occur as I expected. My opinion was that the entire $100M would roll over to an equivalent security, perhaps with some reduction in convertible price or additional loaned shares as a sweetener. The net effect of what happened is almost the same, but we do have a couple million shares of additional dilution, so overall very marginally worse than expected. On balance the overhang has been dealt with, which is definitely positive, and that dilution is not enough to warrant more than a passing 'meh' and move on to other things that matter much more to the future of the company. My sentiments exactly. |
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