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Post by charlespk on Aug 4, 2015 10:15:56 GMT -5
CC for August 10,2015 was announced this morning , so I made a list of what we might or not hear.
1) Sales of Afrezza- since Sanofi already announced sales for the quarter last week , this should be a non - event, as I doubt they will release figures for just July .
2) Milestone payment due to validation of the 12 unit cartridge - I seem to recall that this would trigger a milestone payment, but cannot recall if this is speculation or accurate information .
3) If milestone payment is announced, when will be it on the books ?
4) Announcement of 2nd TS partnership , this would be probably the best surprise , but in my opinion, they are not ready for this yet , would love to hear from other board members regarding this item .
5) Announcement of approval in another country , this will happen at some point, but for Afrezza , it may be Sanofi and not Mannkind who breaks the news on it.
6) Convertible notes - it would be great to hear something better than what has already been said , but as others mentioned , its a day before .
7) Buyout - although most of us dream that this would be announced , it's way too early for any buyout , this will not occurr until sales are significantly higher .
8 ) Announcement of % of insurance plans that have upgraded the tier status for Afrezza, this could be the best news for shareholders of Mannkind ( Again a Sanofi announcement ?)
9) SNY has taken a 5 % stake in Mannkind .
Would love to hear what everyone else is thinking regarding the above , and especially if other items can be added to this list .
9
As always ,
GL
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Post by savzak on Aug 4, 2015 10:34:48 GMT -5
I think there will be no surprises. I hope they will effectively address the following legitimate shareholder concerns:
1. Provide information adequate to confirm Sonofi's commitment to Afrezza. 2. Specifics on education of providers. 3. Specifics on overcoming syrometry issue 4. Specifics on insurance coverage/pricing 5. Specifics on status of note conversion and what will be done to pay any notes not converted. 6. Specifics on DTC beyond magazine ads. 7. When 12U cartridges be available to patients. 8. Status of 2 new lines. Are they operating? At what percentage of capacity? When did they go operational? 9. Anything helpful on Technosphere applications but I'm not really expecting anything on this issue. 10. Meaningful follow up commentary on previous comment regarding scripts being 8 weeks behind. How do they see scripts now. What happened with the 8 week analysis? |
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Post by charlespk on Aug 4, 2015 11:13:50 GMT -5
Thanks savzak for your reply and contribution,
Agree . that unfortunately there will be no surprises .
Wanted to comment on the spirometry issue , to me this should not be a stumbling block , they are easy to do, easy to obtain , they are not that expensive .
They can also be done on multiple sites. The fact that endocrinologists did not have them in their offices , should not be a big deal . they can order them .
in fact as I have been an investigator on several studies, it really surprised me that FDA approval came around June 2014, at which point it was known that it was a requirement prior to Rx, launched in Feb 2015 and it took them by surprise? I don't know what caused Mannkind or Sanofi to drop the ball on this one , it was a known fact that it was required.
"Never bite the hand that feeds you", and I am pro Afrezza 100 % , but this was a " surprise" that should have never happened .
Thanks for your post .
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Post by newmnkdinvestor on Aug 4, 2015 11:21:15 GMT -5
$3.50
As I have said many times I am a newb in my investing/trading career but tis crazy how similair the pps is in comparison to 1st quarter. We have literally done a 360 in 3 months.
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Post by james on Aug 4, 2015 15:25:09 GMT -5
7) Buyout - although most of us dream that this would be announced , it's way too early for any buyout , this will not occurr until sales are significantly higher . Maybe I'm in the minority, but I have neither any expectation for (in the next several years) nor any desire for a buyout. I suppose there would be a benefit in it ending the drama with what ought to be a bit of profit, but at this point, it would necessarily eliminate much of the upside potential. I am most interested in hearing about implications of the debt conversion, any additional rationale for the arrangement, and expectations for cash levels going forward. Another thing that folks should be interested in is Matt's thoughts around progress towards booking milestone payments to revenue. Other items high on my interest list: - Additional adjustments in marketing strategy and rollout - Inventory build and how much is actually being sold to the JV (those production lines cannot be running flat out - that would make no sense; what about the Amphistar minimum purchase though?) - JV costs - Technosphere candidate updates |
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Post by liane on Aug 4, 2015 16:13:14 GMT -5
I'm with you james - don't want a buyout.
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Post by bradleysbest on Aug 4, 2015 16:39:34 GMT -5
No buyout.....yet. Lets keep marinating this steak before we put it on the grill!
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Post by Deleted on Aug 4, 2015 17:31:41 GMT -5
I don't think MNKD is buy out candidate this year or next. Too many unknowns with Technosphere-IMHO-this is where the real value of MNKD can be found. |
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Post by 1 percenter on Aug 4, 2015 17:37:17 GMT -5
I don't want a buyout but I would love to see a publicly unsolicited offer for MNKD way above the price here to jack it up and give the street a real life understanding of what a major BP values the company at.
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Post by mssciguy on Aug 4, 2015 17:47:01 GMT -5
I don't want a buyout but I would love to see a publicly unsolicited offer for MNKD way above the price here to jack it up and give the street a real life understanding of what a major BP values the company at. My guess is that "thestreet" would know about this way in advance, way before we ever would. That said, I made a big gamble on Nokia a few years ago and when Microsoft bought it, everyone was surprised. Some people can still keep secrets (but very few). I am really looking forward to Fridays Rx numbers, to see if the Time magazine ad effect kicked in yet. It's still not available at my public library, so not holding breath. It's really great what many here did with afrezzajustbreathe website. It would have taken a thousand years to do that on wikipedia. |
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Post by dreamboatcruise on Aug 4, 2015 18:33:26 GMT -5
mssciguy... I would have hoped to see a jump in google searches for Afrezza (Google trends) based on the Time ad. That has not happened. I'm sure lots of people wouldn't necessarily search for additional info, but I still think it is some indication that one ad isn't going to send everyone scrambling and rushing to their doctors. I think we'll see increases in scripts, but I'm tempering my expectation for dramatic change in trajectory. Remember, around 75% of patients will have to jump through hoops or pay out of pocket to get Afrezza at this point.
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Post by mssciguy on Aug 4, 2015 19:12:59 GMT -5
mssciguy... I would have hoped to see a jump in google searches for Afrezza (Google trends) based on the Time ad. That has not happened. I'm sure lots of people wouldn't necessarily search for additional info, but I still think it is some indication that one ad isn't going to send everyone scrambling and rushing to their doctors. I think we'll see increases in scripts, but I'm tempering my expectation for dramatic change in trajectory. Remember, around 75% of patients will have to jump through hoops or pay out of pocket to get Afrezza at this point. dreamboatcruise ---- I would not put too much stock in short-term google statistics (unless you work for google in which case the raw data is available). Look at the trends data in various time spans--- there is no linearity unless you go to months long spans. The same was true when I was blogging a lot on blogspot--- some very strange data on hits coming from bots and overseas "monitoring" sites (that is a topic for a way different forum). Personally I have found some pharma ads extremely persuasive in the past and even went to see docs to "get some of that" just to try. So, there is the curiosity factor, then there is the real medical need factor. The tRx and nRx will show soon enough how many repeat customers there are, and it looks good to me so far, judging by the large number of free samples distributed. What about the web-based DTC? I am not diabetic myself so I am not going to waste Sanofi's resources signing up anywhere for those streams. We are still near the origin in terms of exponential growth... still looks linear. |
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Post by dudley on Aug 4, 2015 19:28:15 GMT -5
I would love to know what the status is on the Pfizer insulin they have in storage. That is supposedly enough to manufacture $10 Billion worth of product and I can't for the life of me understand why they have not certified it and use it before anything might happen to it. It is supposed to be perfectly good insulin but is not FDA certified. Why in the world would they pay for insulin when cash is tight and they have literally tons of it that is already paid for and expensed? Or can it be monetized in some way if they can't use it themselves? Yet another of the tantalizing mysteries in this convoluted story.
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Post by charlespk on Aug 4, 2015 19:28:35 GMT -5
Agree with mannkindmillionare , a bid war between different Big Pharmas, to bring out the true value of TS , that is what i really would want to see also .
thanks for the post .
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Post by mssciguy on Aug 4, 2015 19:36:05 GMT -5
I would love to know what the status is on the Pfizer insulin they have in storage. That is supposedly enough to manufacture $10 Billion worth of product and I can't for the life of me understand why they have not certified it and use it before anything might happen to it. It is supposed to be perfectly good insulin but is not FDA certified. Why in the world would they pay for insulin when cash is tight and they have literally tons of it that is already paid for and expensed? Or can it be monetized in some way if they can't use it themselves? Yet another of the tantalizing mysteries in this convoluted story. I don't know the technical details here, but I do have experience around liquid insulin products, which are far more unstable. This is a tightly regulated area, and FDA might not know how to deal with a solid as much as a liquid in terms of stability. But in Europe you have many more scientists and very good ones... it's different. To satisfy FDA, some kind of equivalence study would be required. Best guess is it's at -60 C, deep freeze. Nothing happens there unless it dessicates somehow and it's probably crystalline. My two cents |
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