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Post by yossarian on Nov 16, 2015 13:18:08 GMT -5
it might be useful to get back to some more productive speculation. AFREZZA is NOT selling as expected. That more than anything else is why the stock is tanking. Low sales, no investment value. As such MNKD stock will not start to move up significantly until
1. sales of AFREZZA show substantial increases or
2. a Technosphere partnership or licensing agreement is announced (note however that it would probably be years before any commercial sales develop since any FDA approval would probably take months) or
3. the company gets sold, merged, or somehow absorbed by another entity, or
4. a major label change is announced for AFREZZA by the FDA or
5. the military announces it is using AFREZZA or
6. AFREZZA is approved for sale in another country or
7. it is found that AFREZZA causes a diabetes remission or
8. a major celebrity announces he is a successful user of AFREZZA, e.g. Tom Hanks or the like, or
9. maybe TV ads might cause a short term bump.
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Post by nylefty on Nov 16, 2015 13:36:07 GMT -5
"the military announces it is using AFREZZA"
Has the military ever "announced" that it is using any diabetes drug? Seems highly unlikely.
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Post by mssciguy on Nov 16, 2015 13:40:19 GMT -5
" the military announces it is using AFREZZA" Has the military ever "announced" that it is using any diabetes drug? Seems highly unlikely. Tricare is the military |
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Post by cathode on Nov 16, 2015 13:49:26 GMT -5
I recognize and appreciate these thoughts. I want to abstract these a little because I see lots of overlap.
A. Sales of Afrezza show substantial increases or a large bulk-order/commitment is made from US institutions (military, prison)
B. Afrezza is approved or begins to sell outside of USA
C. Technosphere partner or licensing agreement is announced
D. Company is sold, merged, absorbed by another entity or SNY announces >5% buy-in
E. Increased awareness brought to public via celebrity endorsement, new advertising, major news piece
F. Clinical results overwhelmingly demonstrate superiority in treating diabetes, which could prompt label change
With these, I will add three more.
G. SNY announces 8000 patient long-term safety trial
H. Major change in insurance coverage and formulary placement from more than one of the huge insurers
I. Big shorts collude to cover and ride share price up
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Post by yossarian on Nov 16, 2015 22:52:45 GMT -5
Upon further thought, I would add that it is not impossible that Dr. Mann might decide to take Mannkind private.
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Post by jeremg on Nov 16, 2015 23:00:23 GMT -5
Upon further thought, I would add that it is not impossible that Dr. Mann might decide to take Mannkind private. I have thought this as well, in fact, extensively recently. The only thing that wouldn't fit this outcome would be the TASE listing, that's a puzzle piece I just can't fit into the scenario which Al takes the company private. This has not been popular sentiment in the past but considering where we are now anything is possible. Honestly, I would welcome it if it left me whole. Times sure have changed. |
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Post by jpg on Nov 16, 2015 23:25:30 GMT -5
Upon further thought, I would add that it is not impossible that Dr. Mann might decide to take Mannkind private. I have thought this as well, in fact, extensively recently. The only thing that wouldn't fit this outcome would be the TASE listing, that's a puzzle piece I just can't fit into the scenario which Al takes the company private. This has not been popular sentiment in the past but considering where we are now anything is possible. Honestly, I would welcome it if it left me whole. Times sure have changed. So Mann, who we haven't heard of for a long time and who may not be in the greatest of health, would, as a final legacy act buy out all of the other shareholders? That means he would spend 400 to 600 million $ buying out all the shares and still be deeply in debt with some huge financial obligations and need for capital to run the company. And let us not forget the multiple lawsuits against him and his estate that would follow. And the fact he has promised many of the assets of the company he has just 'taken private' to others. Would he not pay all these creditors first before buying out Mannkind and taking it private? So we are looking at a minimum of anywhere between 700 and 800 million $ now... Does that even remotely look like a credible scenario? Might people get more and more desperate with their scenarios? |
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Post by jeremg on Nov 16, 2015 23:35:28 GMT -5
I have thought this as well, in fact, extensively recently. The only thing that wouldn't fit this outcome would be the TASE listing, that's a puzzle piece I just can't fit into the scenario which Al takes the company private. This has not been popular sentiment in the past but considering where we are now anything is possible. Honestly, I would welcome it if it left me whole. Times sure have changed. So Mann, who we haven't heard of for a long time and who may not be in the greatest of health, would, as a final legacy act buy out all of the other shareholders? That means he would spend 400 to 600 million $ buying out all the shares and still be deeply in debt with some huge financial obligations and need for capital to run the company. And let us not forget the multiple lawsuits against him and his estate that would follow. And the fact he has promised many of the assets of the company he has just 'taken private' to others. Would he not pay all these creditors first before buying out Mannkind and taking it private? So we are looking at a minimum of anywhere between 700 and 800 million $ now... Does that even remotely look like a credible scenario? Might people get more and more desperate with their scenarios? At the level he's playing financing that deal would not be as outlandish as you make it sound. Especially when both him and the creditors are fully aware he's buying out assets that are actually worth many times the discounted pricetag WallStreet has forcibly stamped on it. As long as MNKD is trading on WS, false perception is reality, once off WS, value comes into play. |
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Post by jpg on Nov 16, 2015 23:39:26 GMT -5
So Mann, who we haven't heard of for a long time and who may not be in the greatest of health, would, as a final legacy act buy out all of the other shareholders? That means he would spend 400 to 600 million $ buying out all the shares and still be deeply in debt with some huge financial obligations and need for capital to run the company. And let us not forget the multiple lawsuits against him and his estate that would follow. And the fact he has promised many of the assets of the company he has just 'taken private' to others. Would he not pay all these creditors first before buying out Mannkind and taking it private? So we are looking at a minimum of anywhere between 700 and 800 million $ now... Does that even remotely look like a credible scenario? Might people get more and more desperate with their scenarios? At the level he's playing financing that deal would not be as outlandish as you make it sound. Especially when both him and the creditors are fully aware he's buying out assets that are actually worth many times the discounted pricetag WallStreet has forcibly stamped on it. As long as MNKD is trading on WS, false perception is reality, once off WS, value comes into play. I would heavily discount this outcome and give it almost no probability. To make much more money he would simply pay off the creditors and show that the company is well capitalized and the market cap would bounce enough to be much more rewarding. No one wanting to take a company private would do a hail mary stock market listing as a financing option. |
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Post by jeremg on Nov 16, 2015 23:44:43 GMT -5
jpg, I agree it's highly improbable but I also thought we would never be where we are right now. Everything that has happened with this stock I've thought at one point or another in the past would have been highly improbable. I have a love hate relationship with speculation at this point, it's really all we have left.
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Post by Deleted on Nov 17, 2015 7:46:05 GMT -5
can always give restricted stock units to shareholders during taking it private so they can go puublic again but it will be night mare for accounting
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