Script is Relative

[myocat]

Recent Seeking Alpha op-ed sucker article posted the script count was still under 300 per week.  

(https://seekingalpha.com/article/4064186-mannkind-buck-new-script-numbers-remain-300)  

"Summary
 Weekly scripts remain below 300.
"



I was thinking about the sale force that the generates  <300 scripts.  We know that the sale reps MNKD employed is way less than the SNY's sale reps.

Let's assume
SNY sale reps = 200 and only got 300 scripts

Let's assume 
MNKD sale reps = 100 and generates 300 scripts

so, for a small work force that closely matches SNY's total script count,  I say MNKD met or exceeded the yard stick.
One of those day, SNY will say "we made a big mistake terminating marketing contract with MNKD"


my 2 cents

[peppy]

I am thinking we see scripts over 300 this Friday.

[hans]

I agree and furthermore we should be hearing on the CC how the script count is no longer the same measure as previously especially with the new tritration packs. Revenue and guidance should be the key tomorrow. Go MNKD.

[seanismorris]

It's not just the number. It's the difference between the numbers pre sales force to post sales force scripts.

Adding a very expensive sales force hasn't moved scripts enough to justify their cost. The problem is a catch 22.

Without the sales force increasing scripts MannKind has no way to survive. But, with the sales force how long MannKind can survive has decreased due to increased costs.

We need to see a trajectory like (scripts)
500
650
750
Etc.

If this started when the sales force started we'd have 1000-2000 scripts and a good chance of surviving.

[uvula]

Everyone here seems to miss something that has bothered me for a while. Once a doctor is educated on afrezza he/she stays trained and will continue to write scripts if they like afrezza even if the sales rep disappeared. In theory if you fired all the sales reps the scripts should still be raising or flat. Some of the scripts we are getting are probably due to old sanofi sales reps.

[seanismorris]

May 9, 2017 13:48:14 GMT -5 uvula said:

Everyone here seems to miss something that has bothered me for a while. Once a doctor is educated on afrezza he/she stays trained and will continue to write scripts if they like afrezza even if the sales rep disappeared. In theory if you fired all the sales reps the scripts should still be raising or flat. Some of the scripts we are getting are probably due to old sanofi sales reps.

That is true.  Much of the scripts we do have are from Sanofi reps.  

There naturally was some fall off in scripts when the docs prescribing thought Afrezza would be pulled from the market, but MannKind reps have barely brought those numbers back up to Sanofi's level.

If we are thinking One Drop is the answer, that could be from a realization that the sales force isn't working out.  If One Drop works it may mean Afrezza is a niche product that requires a different distribution model.  It's to early to tell..

I'm still concerned about the lackluster marketing by MannKind.  I don't see how Afrezza can even be a niche product without marketing.

If I was MannKind I'd be looking to sublease part of their building.  Things really are that bad.

[peppy]

come on peeps. the advertisements in the physician waiting rooms have just started.
Let the physicians acclimate.
When the ads start, people will be calling.
it took us this long to get a few physicians that are now capable of saying, "yes, afrezza is right for you." "What type of insurance do you have?"