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Post by n8 on Jul 25, 2017 11:18:19 GMT -5
Lets say that sales continue to compound. Lets say we see a increase in revenue. Lets say label change happens and pediatric trials are completed and are positive. What is the most logical SP we would see by the end of the year compared to other products in comparison?
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Post by dreamboatcruise on Jul 25, 2017 11:56:19 GMT -5
Much will depend on if and how the liquidity problem is addressed or resolved.
I would say current modest growth in rev already priced in. The label change may be useful, but I don't think it creates a pop by itself. It's not going to say patients have better A1c on Afrezza. Approval by FDA for peds might be good for stock but that isn't coming until sometime in 2018 earliest.
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Post by akemp3000 on Jul 25, 2017 12:51:23 GMT -5
More important than label change and pediatric trials will be diabetics finally hearing about the success of Afrezza use through Reversed, DDN, word of mouth and social media. It will be interesting to see who takes a SWAG at answering your question regarding SP.
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Post by kite on Jul 25, 2017 13:22:26 GMT -5
I would like to see it pass $2.31
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Post by buyitonsale on Jul 25, 2017 13:46:05 GMT -5
One of 2 basic events will occur by end of this year that will affect SP: 1. Runway will be extended without major dilution (SP goes higher) 2. Runway will be extended via major dilution (SP goes lower) I personally believe we will witness the 1st event. In the meantime enjoy this musical interlude... www.youtube.com/watch?v=ZeNA4R3Xh9E
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Post by traderdennis on Jul 25, 2017 16:14:55 GMT -5
One of 2 basic events will occur by end of this year that will affect SP: 1. Runway will be extended without major dilution (SP goes higher) 2. Runway will be extended via major dilution (SP goes lower) I personally believe we will witness the 1st event. In the meantime enjoy this musical interlude... www.youtube.com/watch?v=ZeNA4R3Xh9EBuy it, So what will extend the cash runway? Cash burn is around 80 Million per year, plus payments to Deerfield. Scripts greater than 5K per week? The technosphere deal that we have been waiting on for three years? What is the status on the UAE deal. It would be nice if the question was asked on the conference call. I personally think shareholders will be very lucky for option 2 to happen by November. Bueller? Bueller?
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Post by dreamboatcruise on Jul 25, 2017 16:26:41 GMT -5
One of 2 basic events will occur by end of this year that will affect SP: 1. Runway will be extended without major dilution (SP goes higher) 2. Runway will be extended via major dilution (SP goes lower) I personally believe we will witness the 1st event. In the meantime enjoy this musical interlude... www.youtube.com/watch?v=ZeNA4R3Xh9EWhat does belief mean to you? Is belief the same as hope? Is it like someone believes in the afterlife because they are religious? Or is it belief born of analysis of likelihoods of outcomes? How far to you think the runway gets extended without major dilution... another short can kick?
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Post by traderdennis on Jul 25, 2017 16:36:59 GMT -5
One of 2 basic events will occur by end of this year that will affect SP: 1. Runway will be extended without major dilution (SP goes higher) 2. Runway will be extended via major dilution (SP goes lower) I personally believe we will witness the 1st event. In the meantime enjoy this musical interlude... www.youtube.com/watch?v=ZeNA4R3Xh9EWhat does belief mean to you? Is belief the same as hope? Is it like someone believes in the afterlife because they are religious? Or is it belief born of analysis of likelihoods of outcomes? How far to you think the runway gets extended without major dilution... another short can kick? My personal hypothesis is if there is no cash infusion by November, I see MNKD filing for bankruptcy protection in November right before their earnings call. I believe it will be the best way for Afrezza to survive for those that use it. An existing Pharma can then either lend MNKD cash while grabbing a bigger equity shares as oppose to just adding cash in a dilution. Or a company purchases the Afrezza assets in a liquidation. Just my opinion.
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Post by sportsrancho on Jul 25, 2017 16:44:59 GMT -5
One of 2 basic events will occur by end of this year that will affect SP: 1. Runway will be extended without major dilution (SP goes higher) 2. Runway will be extended via major dilution (SP goes lower) I personally believe we will witness the 1st event. In the meantime enjoy this musical interlude... www.youtube.com/watch?v=ZeNA4R3Xh9EWhat does belief mean to you? Is belief the same as hope? Is it like someone believes in the afterlife because they are religious? Or is it belief born of analysis of likelihoods of outcomes? How far to you think the runway gets extended without major dilution... another short can kick? LMAO... I personally believe you sound worried:-)
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Post by thall on Jul 25, 2017 17:16:50 GMT -5
What does belief mean to you? Is belief the same as hope? Is it like someone believes in the afterlife because they are religious? Or is it belief born of analysis of likelihoods of outcomes? How far to you think the runway gets extended without major dilution... another short can kick? My personal hypothesis is if there is no cash infusion by November, I see MNKD filing for bankruptcy protection in November right before their earnings call. I believe it will be the best way for Afrezza to survive for those that use it. An existing Pharma can then either lend MNKD cash while grabbing a bigger equity shares as oppose to just adding cash in a dilution. Or a company purchases the Afrezza assets in a liquidation. Just my opinion. At this point, i'm inclined to a similar opinion. Deerfield forcing MNKD to hire Greenhill sounds an awful lot like a hail mary play.
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Post by dreamboatcruise on Jul 25, 2017 17:41:16 GMT -5
What does belief mean to you? Is belief the same as hope? Is it like someone believes in the afterlife because they are religious? Or is it belief born of analysis of likelihoods of outcomes? How far to you think the runway gets extended without major dilution... another short can kick? LMAO... I personally believe you sound worried:-) I believe you're right.
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Post by falconquest on Jul 25, 2017 17:42:41 GMT -5
My personal hypothesis is if there is no cash infusion by November, I see MNKD filing for bankruptcy protection in November right before their earnings call. I believe it will be the best way for Afrezza to survive for those that use it. An existing Pharma can then either lend MNKD cash while grabbing a bigger equity shares as oppose to just adding cash in a dilution. Or a company purchases the Afrezza assets in a liquidation. Just my opinion. At this point, i'm inclined to a similar opinion. Deerfield forcing MNKD to hire Greenhill sounds an awful lot like a hail mary play. If you forget everything you know about Afrezza, Mike, commercials, long term potential and ask yourself, based on the facts about this company, that they are pretty much on a slow march toward running out of cash in October, would you invest in this company? It doesn't matter what the potential is folks, we're out of cash unless Mike can pull a rabbit out of his hat. I just don't see any reason to be invested at this point. I hate to see those who have been here through thick and thin lose their investment completely in Mannkind. Please take a hard look at what we are facing and ask yourself if you're willing to risk it all. In the end, if you held and lost, no one will give a damn. If you sell and have some capital left then you can at least move on to other opportunities. I'm not advocating anything other than taking a hard look at Mannkind and making the decision to ride it out or at least preserve some capital. I know you think it noble to hold but as I mentioned, no one will care if this fails. Perhaps Matt had enough and wanted out. He gave it his best shot and moved on. Think about Diane Palumbo and Andrea Leone Bay, why did they leave? All I'm saying is take a hard look folks. The best to you.
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Post by mytakeonit on Jul 25, 2017 17:48:01 GMT -5
Q^Q ... You're right falcon ... I took a hard look and will sell it all.
At 300 ... going on 400 !!! NATE ... NATE ... Do I hear 500?!!!
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Post by buyitonsale on Jul 25, 2017 17:49:49 GMT -5
For those who forgot where cash may come from before the end of this year...
1. Brazil distribution 2. UAE distribution 3. Locust Walk finds strategic partner for TS 4. One Drop 5. RLS 6. Alternative financing options that are non dilutive (ask new CFO for details)
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Post by dreamboatcruise on Jul 25, 2017 17:57:00 GMT -5
At this point, i'm inclined to a similar opinion. Deerfield forcing MNKD to hire Greenhill sounds an awful lot like a hail mary play. If you forget everything you know about Afrezza, Mike, commercials, long term potential and ask yourself, based on the facts about this company, that they are pretty much on a slow march toward running out of cash in October, would you invest in this company? It doesn't matter what the potential is folks, we're out of cash unless Mike can pull a rabbit out of his hat. I just don't see any reason to be invested at this point. I hate to see those who have been here through thick and thin lose their investment completely in Mannkind. Please take a hard look at what we are facing and ask yourself if you're willing to risk it all. In the end, if you held and lost, no one will give a damn. If you sell and have some capital left then you can at least move on to other opportunities. I'm not advocating anything other than taking a hard look at Mannkind and making the decision to ride it out or at least preserve some capital. I know you think it noble to hold but as I mentioned, no one will care if this fails. Perhaps Matt had enough and wanted out. He gave it his best shot and moved on. Think about Diane Palumbo and Andrea Leone Bay, why did they leave? All I'm saying is take a hard look folks. The best to you. Or wait a little closer to the moment of truth and then buy some short term insurance in the form of puts? Deerfield may be plan B Mary. I'm guessing the plan A may be to sell all rights to TS... with that other firm shopping it. As for some expecting equity raise... our market cap just doesn't seem to support it at this point. As someone with a fair amount of experience explained here there is only so much stock the market can absorb from underwriters and were at a point where that amount is likely less than our cash burn rate. Bottom line is that it's not a no-brainer that dilutive equity round is possible now. I'd love to here someone with experience say otherwise.
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