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Post by peppy on Oct 11, 2017 6:50:53 GMT -5
Love my MNKD. The label revisions and the price run up make this the perfect time to announce the shelf offering. Obviously WS knows the game, the book makers are going to make money and we get to extend out our cash runway. I don't know that much about how to short stocks, margins requirements, etc. However, saying that and offering my humility before you, could Goldman Sachs buy more shares with the intent to short the stock, make their BS announcements and have their analyst (forgot his name) make sell side recommendations to so they can profit, AGAIN? Or, does $6 offer a floor and a way around that with these newly printed 10M shares? yep.
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Post by boytroy88 on Oct 11, 2017 6:51:19 GMT -5
Love my MNKD. The label revisions and the price run up make this the perfect time to announce the shelf offering. Obviously WS knows the game, the book makers are going to make money and we get to extend out our cash runway. I don't know that much about how to short stocks, margins requirements, etc. However, saying that and offering my humility before you, could Goldman Sachs buy more shares with the intent to short the stock, make their BS announcements and have their analyst (forgot his name) make sell side recommendations to so they can profit, AGAIN? Or, does $6 offer a floor and a way around that with these newly printed 10M shares? I fear this the most...but if scripts continue trending up or a deal is announced then GS gets toasted..maybe...them "Sums of a beaches"....k...really going to try and go get another hour of shut eye...
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Post by liane on Oct 11, 2017 6:52:30 GMT -5
Sleep is overrated!
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Post by hellodolly on Oct 11, 2017 7:02:19 GMT -5
Love my MNKD. The label revisions and the price run up make this the perfect time to announce the shelf offering. Obviously WS knows the game, the book makers are going to make money and we get to extend out our cash runway. I don't know that much about how to short stocks, margins requirements, etc. However, saying that and offering my humility before you, could Goldman Sachs buy more shares with the intent to short the stock, make their BS announcements and have their analyst (forgot his name) make sell side recommendations to so they can profit, AGAIN? Or, does $6 offer a floor and a way around that with these newly printed 10M shares? yep.
Peppy, This is exactly what I was afraid of, however...the tables have turned since GS almost drove MNKD into bankruptcy. The label revision is moving forward, the sales team is being instructed on the new pitch, studies are moving forward, international deals could be in the wings, China is seeking fast approval of drugs in their country, our script growth (although not yet where MNKD would want it), is setting higher lows in growth as a trend...it just seems like a lot of tailwinds right now.
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Post by sellhighdrinklow on Oct 11, 2017 7:05:07 GMT -5
I would sure like to understand the rapid turn around in share price. I get the label change catalyst but this feels like manipulation just as a lot of the downward movement in the past felt like manipulation. So what's changed? The script count is still an issue although funding is not. I would like to know what's behind the meteoric rise in price. Did those that manipulated the price down finally move on? Don't get me wrong, I think this is great but I really want to know what's behind it. Who could have predicted this? I appreciate any thoughts. [b The Time in Range Study results perhaps?
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Post by hammer on Oct 11, 2017 7:10:59 GMT -5
They say the market hates uncertainty, it seems like MNKD just removed alot of that uncertainty. Furthermore they are following the plan as laid out during most recent slide presentation. So will the pps continue to rise? IMHO yes but at what rate will depend upon a slew of factors. I would expect the volatility of pps to slow its pace and modest appreciation occur until next wave of info becomes available from management. Only one thing matters to the dilution, who bought and are they restricted from shorting? Savy shorts will see this as a bullish sign and exit as pps rises. Agree with Kastanes many people will now invest since the financial outlook is improved. Cant wait to hear about the STAT trial!
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Post by brotherm1 on Oct 11, 2017 7:11:57 GMT -5
I would sure like to understand the rapid turn around in share price. I get the label change catalyst but this feels like manipulation just as a lot of the downward movement in the past felt like manipulation. So what's changed? The script count is still an issue although funding is not. I would like to know what's behind the meteoric rise in price. Did those that manipulated the price down finally move on? Don't get me wrong, I think this is great but I really want to know what's behind it. Who could have predicted this? I appreciate any thoughts. Two recent investor conferences, MNKD was undervalued, Wall Street liked the story, believed in Mike, Wall Street saw MNKD just needed some cash, and the new label gave Wall Street the green light to jump in at the undervalued prices to get the ball rolling.
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Post by oldfishtowner on Oct 11, 2017 7:15:42 GMT -5
I personally believe they should have waited for $10. Ten would have given them a full years worth of operating funds or 6 months with extra cash for advertising. $6 was premature. That's absolutely crazy. Castagna waited as long as he could. How long to wait for $10/share??? Read the PR. Cash was down to 20 million or less by now. A 10 million payment to Deerfield is due the end of the month and if MNKD had less than 10 million cash on hand on Oct 31 it would have been in violation of the loan agreement and Deerfield could have called in the loan. Then what? For once MNKD played it just right!
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Post by peppy on Oct 11, 2017 7:20:53 GMT -5
Peppy, This is exactly what I was afraid of, however...the tables have turned since GS almost drove MNKD into bankruptcy. The label revision is moving forward, the sales team is being instructed on the new pitch, studies are moving forward, international deals could be in the wings, China is seeking fast approval of drugs in their country, our script growth (although not yet where MNKD would want it), is setting higher lows in growth as a trend...it just seems like a lot of tailwinds right now.
not me. goldman loading.
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Post by promann on Oct 11, 2017 7:25:52 GMT -5
With MNKD now holding enough cash to extend the runway till fall of next year they are in a (position of strength)! Now mnkd has bargaining power where before they seemed desperate to make any kind of deal just to keep them running. Now Mike has the cash to talk buisness. Great news for MNKD ..
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Post by therealisaching on Oct 11, 2017 7:28:00 GMT -5
Mike C's road map from Slide 18 at the Cantor conference:
Near Term Milestones and Key Events
1. Growth Trajectory Continues for Afrezza (accomplishing)
2. FDA Label Change (achieved)
3. Recapitalization (freed up 8.4MM shares + placed $60MM)
4. International Expansion Announcements (??)
Doing exactly what he said he would
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Post by oldfishtowner on Oct 11, 2017 7:28:08 GMT -5
So with bankruptcy off the table now , exactly what is the shorts thesis? Will they be willing to pay 100% interest for the next 6 months? Opps! MNKD has 12 million shares left to sell. How about the next year and a half?
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Post by victoria on Oct 11, 2017 7:31:08 GMT -5
Peppy, This is exactly what I was afraid of, however...the tables have turned since GS almost drove MNKD into bankruptcy. The label revision is moving forward, the sales team is being instructed on the new pitch, studies are moving forward, international deals could be in the wings, China is seeking fast approval of drugs in their country, our script growth (although not yet where MNKD would want it), is setting higher lows in growth as a trend...it just seems like a lot of tailwinds right now.
not me. goldman loading.
Probably simplistic, but I expect anything goldman do is hedged one way or the other: but I think any sensible large investor will see the changed fundamentals (using the term in a broad sense) and conclude that the probability favours the upside now. I think gs will invest to gain from increase in share value and hedge against unexpected decline, rather than the converse as one suspects was the likely view before. I would give 40% odds on today closing in the green. Saw ths before with kerx I think, where a well timed minor dilution was outweighed by the confidence it triggered in the market
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Post by derek2 on Oct 11, 2017 7:48:57 GMT -5
Mike C's road map from Slide 18 at the Cantor conference:
Near Term Milestones and Key Events
1. Growth Trajectory Continues for Afrezza (accomplishing)
2. FDA Label Change (achieved)
3. Recapitalization (freed up 8.4MM shares + placed $60MM)
4. International Expansion Announcements (??)
Doing exactly what he said he would
This is what is driving my optimism. Not just one or two events, but instead competent communication and execution by the company. Mike and his team are acting like a professional management team.
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Post by therealisaching on Oct 11, 2017 7:55:53 GMT -5
Some pretty good detail in the press release:
Financial Update
Although MannKind's financial results as of and for the three months ended September 30, 2017 are not yet finalized, the following information reflects its expectations with respect to such results based on currently available information: For the three months ended September 30, 2017, MannKind expects to report between $2.6 million and $3.0 million of gross Afrezza product revenue and between $1.8 million and $2.2 million of net Afrezza product revenue. MannKind estimates that as of September 30, 2017, its cash and cash equivalents were approximately $20.2 million. MannKind estimates that as of September 30, 2017, the principal balance outstanding for its 9.75% Senior Convertible Notes due 2019 and 8.75% Senior Convertible Notes due 2019 issued under its facility agreement with Deerfield Private Design Fund II, L.P. and Deerfield Private Design International II, L.P. was $60.0 million; its 5.75% Convertible Senior Subordinated Exchange Notes Due 2018 was $27.7 million; and its borrowings under the loan arrangement with The Mann Group LLC was $79.7 million. MannKind estimates that the annual purchase requirements under the insulin supply agreement with Amphastar as of September 30, 2017 were unchanged from June 30, 2017, except for the impact of foreign currency translation. MannKind has not yet purchased the annual minimum required quantities of insulin for 2017 of €2.7 million
Cash at 6/30 was 43.3 so they spent 23.1 or 7.7MM. Guidance was 18-24/qtr.
Cash at 9/30 20.2MM + 57.7MM today = 77.9MM. Lets deduct 10MM for Deerfield & 3MM to Amphastar. Approx 65MM or another 8 months of runway
Net revenue up approx 33% vs q2. 2MM vs 1.5MM
Gross revenue for 3 qtr 3MM. Lets say sales stay flat from here 400k/week. 400k * 13 weeks = 5.2MM. Gets us to 8.2MM. It wont be flat over 13 weeks so Mike's guidance of 9-14MM is going to prove out as well.
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