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Post by cjc04 on Oct 11, 2017 7:58:02 GMT -5
The dominos are falling in line, on time...
This puts $57 mil in the bank, and I'd think it's safe to assume MNKD took advantage of the ATM for another $50mil, "coincidentally" with the remaining 10 mil shares @ $5+ ish, banking over $100mil.
So within 2 weeks, Wall Street pumps up MNKD 300% so it can give them $61 mil for 9%, because it likes the new CEO? NO! There are no coincidences. This has been the plan, with the label change as the catalyst, all along, and the dominos will continue to fall into place supporting the rise over the next few months.
To ask if this is manipulation is naive,,, there is nothing about this game that is NOT manipulation, with insiders knowing everything before we do.
And Matt had nothing to do with setting all this up? Our new 40 something year old pharmacist CEO is single handedly taming the FDA, Wall Street, BP, and MNKD's creditors.... suuuuure...
I guess I'm venting now, my apologies, it's been a rough couple of years and it all seems more orchestrated now than ever...... and I'm actually happy about it, I was ready this time, I made $40k in 2 weeks with cheap options and rolled it all over into leaps bringing my total break even price just under $10, which I think we'll see in November...
Rant over,,,, I apologize again,,,, keep buying the dips, this will be manipulated all the way up to $25+ within 6 to 8 months.
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Post by celo on Oct 11, 2017 8:04:35 GMT -5
Some pretty good detail in the press release:
Financial Update
Although MannKind's financial results as of and for the three months ended September 30, 2017 are not yet finalized, the following information reflects its expectations with respect to such results based on currently available information: For the three months ended September 30, 2017, MannKind expects to report between $2.6 million and $3.0 million of gross Afrezza product revenue and between $1.8 million and $2.2 million of net Afrezza product revenue. MannKind estimates that as of September 30, 2017, its cash and cash equivalents were approximately $20.2 million. MannKind estimates that as of September 30, 2017, the principal balance outstanding for its 9.75% Senior Convertible Notes due 2019 and 8.75% Senior Convertible Notes due 2019 issued under its facility agreement with Deerfield Private Design Fund II, L.P. and Deerfield Private Design International II, L.P. was $60.0 million; its 5.75% Convertible Senior Subordinated Exchange Notes Due 2018 was $27.7 million; and its borrowings under the loan arrangement with The Mann Group LLC was $79.7 million. MannKind estimates that the annual purchase requirements under the insulin supply agreement with Amphastar as of September 30, 2017 were unchanged from June 30, 2017, except for the impact of foreign currency translation. MannKind has not yet purchased the annual minimum required quantities of insulin for 2017 of €2.7 million
Cash at 6/30 was 43.3 so they spent 23.1 or 7.7MM. Guidance was 18-24/qtr.
Cash at 9/30 20.2MM + 57.7MM today = 77.9MM. Lets deduct 10MM for Deerfield & 3MM to Amphastar. Approx 65MM or another 8 months of runway
Net revenue up approx 33% vs q2. 2MM vs 1.5MM
Gross revenue for 3 qtr 3MM. Lets say sales stay flat from here 400k/week. 400k * 13 weeks = 5.2MM. Gets us to 8.2MM. It wont be flat over 13 weeks so Mike's guidance of 9-14MM is going to prove out as well.
Good analysis except.... Runway will be a lot longer because sales are increasing at a rapid pace and the runway can be extended probably at lest 12 months. Sales growth will not slow down. Not with Mike in charge. International deals, which is the next line will be added infusion of money, runway extended further 400k a week in sales forecast for 4q is extremely low....Try somewhere in the 500k to 600k. Burn rate will decrease every quarter by 5 million until gone at the end of 2018.
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Post by derek2 on Oct 11, 2017 8:04:56 GMT -5
The dominos are falling in line, on time... This puts $57 mil in the bank, and I'd think it's safe to assume MNKD took advantage of the ATM for another $50mil, "coincidentally" with the remaining 10 mil shares @ $5+ ish, banking over $100mil.So within 2 weeks, Wall Street pumps up MNKD 300% so it can give them $61 mil for 9%, because it likes the new CEO? NO! There are no coincidences. This has been the plan, with the label change as the catalyst, all along, and the dominos will continue to fall into place supporting the rise over the next few months. Yes, the ATM gives another margin of safety for the company and can be tapped if the share price gooses even more.
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Post by me on Oct 11, 2017 8:08:52 GMT -5
Good analysis except.... Runway will be a lot longer because sales are increasing at a rapid pace and the runway can be extended probably at lest 12 months. Sales growth will not slow down. Not with Mike in charge. International deals, which is the next line will be added infusion of money, runway extended further 400k a week in sales forecast for 4q is extremely low....Try somewhere in the 500k to 600k. Burn rate will decrease every quarter by 5 million until gone at the end of 2018. Geez, I wish the business model for my company could include a disappearing burn rate at a point in the future! Not!!!
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Post by celo on Oct 11, 2017 8:10:57 GMT -5
Just a thought... Maybe to close an international deal, Mannkind needed to show they have a long time before a possible closing and bankruptcy. What company wants to ink a deal, then to see the company go bankrupt and have the drug unavailable for patients. This says to an international partner, we will be here for a while to supply whatever you need.
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Post by promann on Oct 11, 2017 8:11:01 GMT -5
Some pretty good detail in the press release:
Financial Update
Although MannKind's financial results as of and for the three months ended September 30, 2017 are not yet finalized, the following information reflects its expectations with respect to such results based on currently available information: For the three months ended September 30, 2017, MannKind expects to report between $2.6 million and $3.0 million of gross Afrezza product revenue and between $1.8 million and $2.2 million of net Afrezza product revenue. MannKind estimates that as of September 30, 2017, its cash and cash equivalents were approximately $20.2 million. MannKind estimates that as of September 30, 2017, the principal balance outstanding for its 9.75% Senior Convertible Notes due 2019 and 8.75% Senior Convertible Notes due 2019 issued under its facility agreement with Deerfield Private Design Fund II, L.P. and Deerfield Private Design International II, L.P. was $60.0 million; its 5.75% Convertible Senior Subordinated Exchange Notes Due 2018 was $27.7 million; and its borrowings under the loan arrangement with The Mann Group LLC was $79.7 million. MannKind estimates that the annual purchase requirements under the insulin supply agreement with Amphastar as of September 30, 2017 were unchanged from June 30, 2017, except for the impact of foreign currency translation. MannKind has not yet purchased the annual minimum required quantities of insulin for 2017 of €2.7 million
Cash at 6/30 was 43.3 so they spent 23.1 or 7.7MM. Guidance was 18-24/qtr.
Cash at 9/30 20.2MM + 57.7MM today = 77.9MM. Lets deduct 10MM for Deerfield & 3MM to Amphastar. Approx 65MM or another 8 months of runway
Net revenue up approx 33% vs q2. 2MM vs 1.5MM
Gross revenue for 3 qtr 3MM. Lets say sales stay flat from here 400k/week. 400k * 13 weeks = 5.2MM. Gets us to 8.2MM. It wont be flat over 13 weeks so Mike's guidance of 9-14MM is going to prove out as well.
Good analysis except.... Runway will be a lot longer because sales are increasing at a rapid pace and the runway can be extended probably at lest 12 months. Sales growth will not slow down. Not with Mike in charge. International deals, which is the next line will be added infusion of money, runway extended further 400k a week in sales forecast for 4q is extremely low....Try somewhere in the 500k to 600k. Burn rate will decrease every quarter by 5 million until gone at the end of 2018. You are half way right but dont forget that spending will also more then likely increase in other areas now that we have the cash. we can spend on advertisements, we can pursue and experdite other products in the pipe line, we can hire more sales reps and other sales marketing professionals. I'm sure that spending has been crunched but now we have some breathing room to proceed with great opportunities. Mikes hands are untied!! good luck all
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Post by celo on Oct 11, 2017 8:16:39 GMT -5
Good analysis except.... Runway will be a lot longer because sales are increasing at a rapid pace and the runway can be extended probably at lest 12 months. Sales growth will not slow down. Not with Mike in charge. International deals, which is the next line will be added infusion of money, runway extended further 400k a week in sales forecast for 4q is extremely low....Try somewhere in the 500k to 600k. Burn rate will decrease every quarter by 5 million until gone at the end of 2018. Geez, I wish the business model for my company could include a disappearing burn rate at a point in the future! Not!!! When do you think they will be profitable?
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Post by sportsrancho on Oct 11, 2017 8:17:45 GMT -5
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Post by madog365 on Oct 11, 2017 8:17:53 GMT -5
Some pretty good detail in the press release:
Financial Update
Although MannKind's financial results as of and for the three months ended September 30, 2017 are not yet finalized, the following information reflects its expectations with respect to such results based on currently available information: For the three months ended September 30, 2017, MannKind expects to report between $2.6 million and $3.0 million of gross Afrezza product revenue and between $1.8 million and $2.2 million of net Afrezza product revenue. MannKind estimates that as of September 30, 2017, its cash and cash equivalents were approximately $20.2 million. MannKind estimates that as of September 30, 2017, the principal balance outstanding for its 9.75% Senior Convertible Notes due 2019 and 8.75% Senior Convertible Notes due 2019 issued under its facility agreement with Deerfield Private Design Fund II, L.P. and Deerfield Private Design International II, L.P. was $60.0 million; its 5.75% Convertible Senior Subordinated Exchange Notes Due 2018 was $27.7 million; and its borrowings under the loan arrangement with The Mann Group LLC was $79.7 million. MannKind estimates that the annual purchase requirements under the insulin supply agreement with Amphastar as of September 30, 2017 were unchanged from June 30, 2017, except for the impact of foreign currency translation. MannKind has not yet purchased the annual minimum required quantities of insulin for 2017 of €2.7 million
Cash at 6/30 was 43.3 so they spent 23.1 or 7.7MM. Guidance was 18-24/qtr.
Cash at 9/30 20.2MM + 57.7MM today = 77.9MM. Lets deduct 10MM for Deerfield & 3MM to Amphastar. Approx 65MM or another 8 months of runway
Net revenue up approx 33% vs q2. 2MM vs 1.5MM
Gross revenue for 3 qtr 3MM. Lets say sales stay flat from here 400k/week. 400k * 13 weeks = 5.2MM. Gets us to 8.2MM. It wont be flat over 13 weeks so Mike's guidance of 9-14MM is going to prove out as well.
Seems symphony numbers are significantly off from the revenue mannkind is reporting. When i added up the weekly symphony revenue numbers i got close to $4mm in sales while gross revenue reported is between $2.6MM and $3MM. Anyone else getting the same?
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Post by agedhippie on Oct 11, 2017 8:26:09 GMT -5
Some pretty good detail in the press release:
Financial Update
Although MannKind's financial results as of and for the three months ended September 30, 2017 are not yet finalized, the following information reflects its expectations with respect to such results based on currently available information: For the three months ended September 30, 2017, MannKind expects to report between $2.6 million and $3.0 million of gross Afrezza product revenue and between $1.8 million and $2.2 million of net Afrezza product revenue. MannKind estimates that as of September 30, 2017, its cash and cash equivalents were approximately $20.2 million. MannKind estimates that as of September 30, 2017, the principal balance outstanding for its 9.75% Senior Convertible Notes due 2019 and 8.75% Senior Convertible Notes due 2019 issued under its facility agreement with Deerfield Private Design Fund II, L.P. and Deerfield Private Design International II, L.P. was $60.0 million; its 5.75% Convertible Senior Subordinated Exchange Notes Due 2018 was $27.7 million; and its borrowings under the loan arrangement with The Mann Group LLC was $79.7 million. MannKind estimates that the annual purchase requirements under the insulin supply agreement with Amphastar as of September 30, 2017 were unchanged from June 30, 2017, except for the impact of foreign currency translation. MannKind has not yet purchased the annual minimum required quantities of insulin for 2017 of €2.7 million
Cash at 6/30 was 43.3 so they spent 23.1 or 7.7MM. Guidance was 18-24/qtr.
Cash at 9/30 20.2MM + 57.7MM today = 77.9MM. Lets deduct 10MM for Deerfield & 3MM to Amphastar. Approx 65MM or another 8 months of runway
Net revenue up approx 33% vs q2. 2MM vs 1.5MM
Gross revenue for 3 qtr 3MM. Lets say sales stay flat from here 400k/week. 400k * 13 weeks = 5.2MM. Gets us to 8.2MM. It wont be flat over 13 weeks so Mike's guidance of 9-14MM is going to prove out as well.
Seems symphony numbers are significantly off from the revenue mannkind is reporting. When i added up the weekly symphony revenue numbers i got close to $4mm in sales while gross revenue reported is between $2.6MM and $3MM. Anyone else getting the same? That's expected. Symphony base their prices off retail or near retail. If you look back over the previous quarters you will find the same thing. The revenue is based off what we are actually paid as opposed to what we would like (the other drug companies are the same)
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Post by sla55 on Oct 11, 2017 8:29:44 GMT -5
www.marketwatch.com/story/mannkinds-stock-tumbles-after-share-offering-in-wake-of-recent-tripling-in-price-2017-10-11?siteid=yhoof2&yptr=yahooMannKind's stock tumbles after share offering, in wake of recent tripling in price Published: Oct 11, 2017 9:17 a.m. ET Shares of MannKind Corp. MNKD, -7.15% tumbled 8.4% in premarket trade Wednesday, after the inhaled therapeutics products maker announced overnight an offering of common stock, as the company takes advantage of a tripling in price over the past seven sessions. The company said it has entered into agreements with certain institutional investors regarding the sale of a total of 10.17 million shares at a price of $6.00 a share, to raise $61 million. That price is 11% below Tuesday's closing price of $6.71, but is 176% above the Sept. 29 close of $2.17. "With this offering, we have made substantial progress in our efforts to recapitalize the company," said Chief Executive Michael Castagna. The stock has rocketed nearly six-fold over the past three months and more than doubled year to date, while the S&P 500 SPX, +0.23% has gained 14% so far this year.
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Post by me on Oct 11, 2017 8:38:58 GMT -5
Geez, I wish the business model for my company could include a disappearing burn rate at a point in the future! Not!!! When do you think they will be profitable? celo, at this point, I'm not sure when MNKD will be profitable, but I do know that if their cash burn becomes zero, that means the company has been dissolved and is gone. Yes, negative cash flows are usually not good and positive cash flow is generally a good sign. A zero burn rate, however, reflects no corporate activity. That's not good (unless of course, the company has been bought out.)
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Post by celo on Oct 11, 2017 8:56:24 GMT -5
When do you think they will be profitable? celo , at this point, I'm not sure when MNKD will be profitable, but I do know that if their cash burn becomes zero, that means the company has been dissolved and is gone. Yes, negative cash flows are usually not good and positive cash flow is generally a good sign. A zero burn rate, however, reflects no corporate activity. That's not good (unless of course, the company has been bought out.) Oh yeah thanks. It is early and I got a little too excited. I meant positive cash flow.
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Post by babaoriley on Oct 11, 2017 9:03:01 GMT -5
I personally believe they should have waited for $10. Ten would have given them a full years worth of operating funds or 6 months with extra cash for advertising. $6 was premature. Yup, Jonny, I personally wished they'd have waited for $25. But, you can't always get what you want...
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Post by straightly on Oct 11, 2017 9:06:48 GMT -5
Not what I expected, I think they could have waited a few days and gotten more. But this definitely sets the floor at 6 as these guys who bought at 6 will snap up anything and everything at lower prices and they will hold those shares tight. Just my opinion, that’s what I would do... buy more on sale and average down 😎 P.S. I think shorts are not going to be happy about this... 😊 Come on... you seriously are complaining about raising capital at $6? We were at less than a dollar not long ago. The only way of building confidence back up is to build capital back up. I think Mike pulled off a show for the ages in managing to run this up and do this deal at $6. Thank you Mike!!! Dbc: cannot say it better myself. Thank you Mike indeed. Foeward and upward, MNKD!
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